Looking back at Apple's fiscal 2009
Apple's (AAPL) fiscal year, which ends Saturday, finished on a strong note.
The company won't release its earnings for a few weeks, but shareholders can already see the most visible rewards — a stock that returned gains of nearly 45% over a 12 month period in which the S&P 500 lost 15%.
The last eight months were particularly impressive. The stock climbed from a 2-year low of $78.20 a share on Jan. 20 to close Friday at $182.37 — up 133%.
The stock's roller coaster performance over the first four months were driven in part by broad economic trends and in part by concerns about Steve Jobs' health. But its recovery, I suspect, had less to do with Jobs' return than with the company's underlying strength.
Below the fold: The year's highlights (with links to Apple 2.0's coverage).
Apple fact check: 50,000 iPhone apps? – Update 2
I was surprised Monday when Apple (AAPL) vice president Phil Schiller announced that there were 50,000 applications available on the iPhone App Store.
He was giving the keynote at the World Wide Developers Conference — a role usually played by Steve Jobs — and he used the statistic to show how far ahead of its competitors the iPhone had drawn.
In the bar graph displayed on the Moscone Center's oversize screens, the iPhone's 50,000 apps towered over the
- 4,900 Google (GOOG) Android apps,
- 1,088 Nokia (NOK) Ovi Store apps,
- 1,030 Research in Motion (RIMM) BlackBerry apps, and
- 18 apps for "somebody else, I can't read it … it's small," Schiller joked, referring to Palm's (PALM) App Catalog.
I was surprised, because I had been waiting for the App Store to hit the 50,000 mark — getting ready to write a post when it reached that milestone. I'd been watching Jeff Scott's automated count at 148Apps.biz — a source that has proved time and again to be considerably more reliable than Apple in these matters.
You see, Scott has a program that scans the App Store every day, counting the apps that are available for download and checking that number against previous counts. He can tell you — for any day since the store opened — how many applications have been approved and how many are still active. He will even send you, on request, a list of the several thousand apps that were approved but are no longer active — including such best-forgotten gems as I Am Rich and Baby Shaker.
I had checked Scott's site on Sunday, the day before the keynote, and I remember that the number of active applications was still stuck somewhere above 47,000.
Could nearly 3,000 apps have been approved overnight?
"These numbers are from this weekend," Schiller claimed at the keynote. "We looked up on the store."
Well, we looked the numbers up on Wednesday morning, two days later, and this is what we found:
Forty eight hours after Schiller made his claim, the number of active applications was still 1,657 shy of that nice round 50,000 mark.
There's no question Apple's App Store has a huge lead over its competitors. And Schiller is perfectly within his rights to ridicule their puny offerings.
But when you have that kind of lead — when you are a giant among pygmies — claiming that you are bigger than you are doesn't show a lot of class.
UPDATE: Reached between sessions at the WWDC, Jeff Scott suggests that Schiller may have included apps available in the roughly 60 overseas App Stores. But that raises other questions.
"One of the problems with the other app stores," he writes, "is that there may be the same app [that's] available here in the U.S. with a different ID due to localization. I'm leaning toward counting these as different apps, but it would be nice to be able to count them as one.
"I have a couple theories about why they announced 50,000 apps. They could be counting all unique apps worldwide across all stores. But my guess is that this would be more than 50,000.
"My main theory is that they just wanted to quote a big number and used that. After all we are likely only a couple weeks away from 50,000 anyway."
UPDATE 2: Sharp-eyed reader Alex Kynikos from Chicago notes that Apple's U.S. store — the one whose numbers they usual report — past 50,000 available apps on Tuesday, nine days after Schiller made his claim at WWDC.
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Video: Watch Apple's WWDC 2009 keynote
For those who couldn't make it to San Francisco Monday — or who couldn't get into the event (it sold out in record time) — Apple (AAPL) has posted a 2-hour streaming video of the entire keynote. Click here to watch it.
If you want to learn more about the iPhone 3G S without watching the video, the same link offers a 13-minute guided tour that can be played on a computer or an iPod. It also offers links to videos about Snow Leopard and the new MacBook Pros.
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Live from Apple WWDC 2009: New iPhone, new MacBooks, no Steve Jobs
This is the spot for our live coverage of Apple's (AAPL) World Wide Developers Conference.
The keynote started at 1 p.m EDT (10 a.m. PDT). All times below are EDT unless otherwise indicated.
3:05 And that's a wrap.
There is a new iPhone, coming June 19, about a month earlier than expected. There is a $99 iPhone, available now, which is not good news for Palm (PALM). There are new MacBook Pros and price cuts on the 17-inch MacBook and MacBook Air. And we have ship dates for iPhone 3.0 (June 17) and Snow Leopard (September, a month before Microsoft's Windows 7).
But there is nothing from Apple to compete with those hot-selling $300 netbooks.
And there is no Steve Jobs.
His name never came up and there was no news about his condition or his plans to return to Apple.
I would expect that to get a mixed reaction from Wall Street, and as the keynote ended the stock was trading at $141, down about 3.6 points (2.5%). (It recovered somewhat later in the day to close at $143.85, down 0.82 points, and climbed o.1 points in after hours trading.)
Below the fold: The rest of the keynote.
Apple WWDC 2009 keynote Bingo!
The Apple (AAPL) keynote Bingo game — brilliantly parodied in the famous 2008 IBM buzzword ad (pasted below the fold) — has become a fanboy tradition, although as far as we know nobody has ever interrupted a Steve Jobs presentation to shout "Bingo!"
Marketing senior vice president Phil Schiller, not Jobs, is scheduled to give the keynote at this year's World Wide Developers Conference Monday, but that hasn't stopped the Bingo board makers. We've come across at least two board generators, one from the Netherlands (sample board above), the other from Sweden (sample below).
Here are the links:
This exercise is not entirely frivolous; the game does give developers, reporters and other Apple watchers a chance to consolidate the rumors and share their sense of what Cupertino is cooking up.
The rules are simple: generate a board you like, print it out, mark the squares as phrases are uttered or events occur, and when you complete a row, column or diagonal, call out "Bingo!"
If you dare.
Tune in here at 10 a.m. PDT (1 p.m. EDT) for our live coverage of WWDC 2009.
See also:
- What's Steve Jobs got up his sleeve?
- Analyst: Apple’s WWDC likely to ‘disappoint’
- Infographic: Color-coded iPhone rumors
- Rumor roundup: All about the new iPhone
Below the fold: the Buzzword Bingo IBM ad.
What's Steve Jobs got up his sleeve?
Apple's (AAPL) biggest showcase event of the year opens in San Francisco on Monday and it could go one of two ways.
- WWDC 2009 could be precisely what Apple's press release said it would be: a conference designed to bring developers up to speed on the company's two most important software platforms — Mac OS X Snow Leopard and iPhone 3.0.
- Or it could be what the speculators who have run up Apple's stock this week are anticipating: the second coming of CEO Steve Jobs — returned to health and Apple's helm after a six-month medical leave — to take the stage and unveil the latest iPhone.
The smart money is betting …
… well, the truth is the smart money doesn't know. For every plugged-in analyst and media bigfoot who implies that he's been tipped off that Jobs and the new iPhone will be there on Monday there's another who says Jobs is as likely to wait a few weeks until his scheduled return at the end of June.
If the thousands of developers and Apple watchers headed for San Francisco's Moscone Center are feeling a little manipulated right now, maybe that's because they are.
I sense the heavy hand of Steve Jobs behind all this. Nobody plays the expectations game — and the press — more deliberately than he. And I suspect he's been keeping his options open.
It could be that he doesn't want to distract attention from the new software platforms. Or that he wants to clear some more old iPhones out of inventory before releasing the new. Or that he has come to prefer introducing new products at single-purpose special events.
My guess is that Jobs is watching the launch of the Palm (PALM) Pre — a device financed, designed and promoted by former Apple execs — and waiting for his cue.
If he thinks it serves his purpose, he'll send Phil Schiller, his marketing vice president and perennial second banana, out on stage to give a keynote that he knows will disappoint.
Or he could seize the moment — and the captive audience — and step once more into the bright hot center of the reality distortion field.
To find out which it is, tune in here on Monday. We'll be covering the World Wide Developers Conference keynote live starting at 10 a.m. PDT (1 p.m. EDT).
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Report: Steve Jobs "was one real sick guy"
Friday's Wall Street Journal carries a report on the state of Steve Jobs' health that makes his condition last January — before he went on a six month medical leave — sound more desperate than Apple (AAPL) let on at the time.
"He was one real sick guy," an unnamed source told the Journal. "Fundamentally he was starving to death over a nine-month period. He couldn't digest protein. [But] he took corrective action."
According to this source — who is said to have seen Apple's CEO in recent weeks — Jobs' recovery "is coming along" and he should be able to return to work before the end of June, as scheduled.
The same source says that some Apple directors have been getting weekly updates on Jobs' health from his physician.
Jobs has come to Apple headquarters occasionally since his medical leave began, according to the Journal. Independently, the Italian website setteB.IT reported last week that several people spotted Jobs entering the main gate of the Apple Campus on May 27 to attend a meeting.
A few days earlier, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak told another Journal reporter that Jobs sounded "healthy, energetic" when he spoke to him by telephone.
The Journal's latest report comes four days before Apple's annual World Wide Developers Conference. The keynote at last year's WWDC — the last delivered by Jobs — was the first time he appeared in public looking dangerously thin. He skipped MacWorld this year, and his marketing vice president Phil Schiller is scheduled to deliver the keynote next week.
The Journal also reported on speculation that Jobs might make a surprise appearance during the presentation next Monday, but didn't reach any conclusion.
Apple has not returned a request for comment.
Analyst: Apple's WWDC likely to 'disappoint'
Given the rumors and high expectations, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster fears the World Wide Developers Conference that Apple (AAPL) is hosting next week in San Francisco could be a "slight disappointment" to investors.
In a note to clients issued early Thursday, Munster writes that he hasn't lost faith in Apple's long-term plan to drive iPhone sales by adding new models, lowering prices and entering new markets (e.g. China).
He's just worried that it's not going to happen the way The Street expects. Specifically:
- Apple is widely expected to unveil a new iPhone next week. Munster is cautious. "Regardless of whether or not new iPhones are announced at WWDC," he writes, "we continue to expect a mid-July launch of a family of iPhones."
- Many investors are looking for Apple to announce a $99 iPhone and a cheaper data plan. Munster thinks $149 is a more likely price point and puts the chances of AT&T (T) offering reduced data fees at about 25%.
- As for Steve Jobs, Munster is neither a pessimist nor an optimist. He doesn't believe Apple's CEO will take the stage on Monday, but he has faith that Jobs will return from his medical leave, as promised, before the end of June.
- And as for OS X Snow Leopard, billed as one of the highlights of this year's WWDC (along with the iPhone 3.0 software), Munster worries that the "near-final release" will have "limited wow-factor" and that the demo "may be disappointing."
In a separate note, Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner writes that he expects Apple to delay the announcement of new iPhones for a few weeks to work through channel inventory of old phones and to avoid "diluting" next week's focus on Snow Leopard and iPhone 3.0.
Munster is sticking with his price target of $180 a share. Reiner has raised his to $160 from $140.
The new iPhone: See all the leaked photos here
Whether a new iPhone will be unveiled at Apple's (AAPL) World Wide Developers Conference — which begins a week from today — is still an open question, but all the signs of an impending announcement are now in place.
Two weeks ago, we got specs and spot shortages (see here). Last week the leaked photos started showing up. The provenance of none of them is certain, but neither has any been shown to be a forgery. And at least one veteran Apple watcher says the latest batch "look very real" to him.
Last week's leaks began Wednesday when China Ontrade, a Hong Kong-based vendor, released pictures (and prices) of what they claimed were parts for the "3gen 2009" iPhone: an inner bezel and what appears to be an LCD screen with slightly different markings than the iPhone 3G's. The first photograph suggested that the new iPhone would have the same shape and dimensions as the old — with black instead of silver trim — and the second seemed to put the lie to the rumor that the new iPhone would sport an organic LED screen. See below:
Two days later MacRumors leaked a photo showing the backs of two iPhones, one shiny black like the current Phone 3G, the other matte black and presumably representing the new 2009 model. MacRumors didn't say where the photo came from, and couldn't vouch for their authenticity, but it noted that the matte black finish was consistent with a photo released in February with a mysterious new model number: A1303. See below:
But the most interesting leaks, so far at least, are the blurry photos and screengrabs posted Saturday at 3 a.m. local time by a Chinese website called UMPC Fever, since overwhelmed by the ensuing traffic (MacRumors' translation here).
"It's already 3am, and I totally cannot sleep," writes the anonymous poster. "I just came home after meeting a friend from the U.S. This friend brought me something, and it's not H1N1. Instead, it is a item that will be under the world's spotlights — a third generation iPhone prototype. This friend is a mysterious person. Even this 3rd Gen iPhone is also very mysterious. He said one can only take fuzzy snapshots of it, and not clear shots. 'Cuz it's still not officially released. So, in regards to the fuzzy photos below, I apologize!"
The shape of the device is hard to make out in the one photograph — apparently shot in a parked car — that shows it from the outside. (See above.)
More informative are the screengrabs that show several features that not available on the iPhone 3G, including a compass, multimedia messaging, horizontal typing, built-in video and voice recording and — perhaps best of all — a nifty autofocus feature on the new higher-res camera that allows you to select what you are focusing on by moving a little blue square with your finger.
The autofocus feature is shown in the photo below, along with a side-by-side comparison of photos shot with the old 2 megapixel camera and the new 3.2 megapixel model.
The rest of the UMPC Fever photos below the fold.
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Steve Jobs, new iPhone coming in late June – analyst
Reading between the lines of an Apple (AAPL) press release issued early Wednesday, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster believes the company has lined up two important events for the end of June: The return of CEO Steve Jobs and the unveiling of the next generation iPhone.
What Apple announced was that the keynote address for this year's World Wide Developers Conference will be delivered by marketing vice president Phil Schiller on June 8 and will focus not on new hardware but on software that Apple has been talking about for months: iPhone 3.0 and Mac OS X Snow Leopard.
In fact, Snow Leopard was introduced by a shockingly gaunt Steve Jobs at last year's WWDC keynote; it was his appearance at that event that first raised questions about his health.
Jobs is half-way through the fifth month of a six-month medical leave, and the announcement that Schiller will be delivering this year's keynote in his place seems to have put an end to speculation that he might be come back a few weeks early.
"Although this may raise some concern among investors that Steve Jobs will not return [at all]," wrote Munster, "we continue to expect his return to the company by the end of June."
Munster points out that for Jobs to deliver a keynote address in less than a month, he would have had to have begun preparation well before his intended return date. The analyst believes Jobs may return to Apple with a reduced role, possibly as chairman, with COO Tim Cook assuming the CEO position.
Munster also sought to reassure investors who had hoped that the successor to the iPhone 3G might be unveiled at the June 8 keynote. Instead, he expects Apple to schedule a second event, jam-packed with news:
"We expect Apple to host a special event in late June or early July to launch a family of iPhones. We continue to expect multiple models, possibly a high-end iPhone with improved specs from the current version and a low-end version with lower capacity and fewer features along with a reduced pricing plan. Such a model could also be used in Apple's launch of the iPhone into China as soon as the end of summer '09.
Apple shares fell 3.97% Tuesday in advance of any significant company news and another 3.96% after the news on Wednesday.
This year's WWDC runs from June 8 – 12 and will be held, as usual, in San Francisco's Moscone Center. Thanks to intense developer interest in both the iPhone and the new Mac OS, this year's event sold out in record time.
