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A sign of things to come? In its Atlanta stores, AT&T is selling the Acer Aspire One for $49 with a 2-year wireless data plan and DSL signup. Image: Acer

PC retail is in rough shape again, and it's about to get rougher.

Evidence of hardship is everywhere. Hewett-Packard (HPQ), the world's largest computer maker, says it's selling about the same number of computers as a year ago, but getting a lot less money for them – sales dropped 19% in the most recent quarter. When Apple (AAPL) reports earnings in July, analysts expect Mac sales to be off as well. And while Intel (INTC) says it's hopeful that its chip sales are bottoming out, chip revenues are lower than they have been in years.

Why are things so bad? The easy answer is that PCs cost hundreds of dollars, and consumers don't have a lot of extra cash floating around these days. Unless your computer has been struck by lightning and given up the ghost, chances are you're holding off on purchasing a new one. One tech industry executive recently confided to me that it's not just U.S. consumers thinking this way – the entire global PC market headed off a cliff at roughly the same time late last year, forcing computer makers to cut workers and rethink their strategies.

In the midst of all that, wireless carriers are poised to shake up PC retail. AT&T (T) announced this week that beginning this summer, it will begin selling small, low-cost Windows XP netbooks from Acer, Dell (DELL), LG and Lenovo in all 2,200 of its U.S. stores. (In case you're counting, that's about twice as many locations as Best Buy (BBY) has.) Rival Verizon (VZ) has already begun selling an HP netbook.

Why buy a computer from a phone company? Price, of course. Sign a two-year wireless data contract with AT&T, for example, and you get $50 knocked off the price of a netbook. Get home DSL service too and save $100. In Atlanta, where AT&T has been testing the deals, the cheapest Acer netbook sells for $49 after rebates.

Sales there have been brisk enough that AT&T execs are confident that cheap laptops will lure customers nationwide the same way cheap phones have in the past. And the deals will only get better: It's easy to imagine that in a year or two, customers who sign up for two years of voice and data service (at a cost north of $100 per month) will leave a store with both a "free" phone and a "free" computer. Exciting, huh?

While this is great news for netbook-loving consumers, it's a downright scary prospect for PC makers. If the phone business is any guide, carriers will fuel demand for the cheapest and least profitable computers out there, and put pressure on traditional PC stores to sell low-price PCs. And that will force tech companies to work harder to lure shoppers toward more powerful (and more expensive) hardware.

That's not an impossible upsell, as the iPhone and BlackBerry (RIMM) have proven in the phone business. But it's yet another challenge the PC gang doesn't exactly need right now.

Cisco CIO Rebecca Jacoby

Even in these tough economic times, tech giant Cisco offers employees some pretty sweet benefits: Employees can visit on-campus doctors and dietitians, drop off dry cleaning, or get an oil change, and now they can pick the kind of computer they want to use at work.

That's right – Cisco has started letting workers choose from a handful of laptops, including an Apple MacBook Pro. Only don't call the program a perquisite. Rebecca Jacoby, Cisco's (CSCO, Fortune 500) top information technology officer, says the initiative, launched last year, should actually save the company money. The fact that employees involved in the pilot program are deliriously happy with it – Jacoby and her peers even get love notes from satisfied road warriors – is a bonus.

Of course, that new freedom requires companies and employees alike to make sacrifices. Since Cisco began offering a choice of machines last June, roughly a quarter of employees have opted for Macs, yet they are pretty much on their own for tech support. (An in-house online community for Mac users gets a little help from Jacoby's department.) Cisco, in turn, has to make a slightly higher upfront investment for the workers who want Macs, which are pricier than PCs.

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Since Intel first began cooking up semiconductors, it has taken great pride in its in-house manufacturing chops. If a chip carried the Intel brand, you could be sure it was created in an Intel fab.

Today the pride is the same, but the methods are changing. The Silicon Valley chipmaker on Monday announced a deal that will allow Taiwanese contract manufacturer TSMC to make custom versions of the Atom chip, the first time it's giving another company access to some of its chip cores. How big a deal is this? It's a little like George Lucas agreeing to let someone else make Star Wars movies. (Judging by the most recent ones, that might not be such a bad idea.) More

Peggy Johnson, executive vice president of the Americas and India for Qualcomm, got a lesson on wireless from a Masai warrior. Photo: Qualcomm

While on safari in Kenya recently, Qualcomm executive Peggy Johnson got a fresh sense of how cell phones are changing every corner of the world.

Johnson's guide, a Masai warrior, explained that he grew up in a family of nomads and attended a boarding school during his high school years – so he inevitably spent much of his vacation breaks trying to track down his highly mobile parents. That changed when he and his parents got cell phones. He could simply call them to find out where they were, transforming his breaks from detective work into family time.

I heard this story during a recent visit to Qualcomm (QCOM) headquarters in San Diego, and couldn't stop thinking about it. Put aside for a moment the odd mental image of the statuesque Masai carrying cell phones – yet more evidence that these days, everyone's got one – and the fact that mobile chipmaker Qualcomm has a vested interest in promoting the idea of a wireless world. The story is a shining example of why, even during these tough economic times, wireless growth isn't stopping.

That's true both in developing economies – India broke its new-subscriber record in January, with 15.4 million new signups – and in developed ones. AT&T (T) executives said this week that they're going to spend $1 billion this year expanding its global network capabilities, and a chunk of that money will go towards improving wireless service in the U.S.

Why? Because people are still spending money on wireless. Yes, the industry is taking a hit – handset leader Nokia (NOK) is trimming its workforce, and equipment makers like Cisco (CSCO) are getting pinched as well. But unlike premium cable and fancy dinners, cell phones (even the data plans) are staking their claims in our lives as necessities, not mere luxuries.

If you're that Masai warrior, your cell phone isn't just another communication device. It's your way home. (AAPL) (INTC) (VZ) (S)