Daniel Eran Dilger finds anti-Apple bias in Gartner's research

"Looking into its crystal ball, Gartner Group has predicted that Google’s Android will become the second largest smartphone platform by 2012," writes Daniel Eran Dilger in the one-man blog he grandly calls Roughly Drafted Magazine. "Problem is, nobody’s talking about how terrible Gartner is at predicting things, or that Gartner’s 'research' has historically been paid for by special interests."

So begins Dilger's reaction to an interview with Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney that appeared Tuesday in Computerworld and was picked up uncritically by more than half a dozen tech websites.

Drawing on historical records and making generous use of internal Microsoft documents made public during antitrust proceedings, Dilger attacks not only Dulaney's numbers, but the credibility of the entire Gartner research group.

The result is a 1,700-word screed that may be the most thorough take-down of a tech industry analyst — and his employer — since Eliot Spitzer went after Henry Blodget.

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Despite the hundreds of customers who queued up outside Verizon (VZ) stores early Friday to buy the Storm –  Research in Motion's hot new smartphone — the company is likely to miss its subscriber targets for the quarter that ends Nov. 29, according to a report issued Monday by Citigroup (C) analyst Jim Suva.

The Storm, RIM's (RIMM) answer to Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, sold out almost immediately — and that's the problem, according to Suva.

Further investigation, he says, showed that the stores only received 40 to 100 units each, and that disappointed customers were told they could order online but wouldn't get their Storms until Dec. 15 — too late to count in RIM's third quarter sales.

The Storm's late release and its limited supply were among several factors that caused Suva to trim his estimate of new subscriptions this quarter from 2.9 million to 2.7 million. He also predicts Q3 earnings to come in at $0.85 per share on sales of $2.85 billion — well below the Street's consensus of $0.91 EPS on sales of $2.96 billion.

Among the other clouds on RIM's horizon, as Suva sees them:

• Lack of Wi-Fi on the Storm and reviews that were "generally positive, but by no means spectacular."
• The delayed launch of the Blackberry Bold at AT&T (T) and sales that, while "solid," seem to be primarily replacements rather than sales to new subscribers.
• The continued unavailability of the Bold in the United Kingdom, a key European market for RIM.
• The "tepid" response to the Kickstart clamshell phone at T-Mobile (DT), which seems to be more concerned with selling Google (GOOG) G1s than RIM BlackBerries.
• A shift in thinking within corporations, which in today's economic climate are starting to view the BlackBerry as a "nice to have" item rather than a "have to have."

See also BlackBerry Storm: The reviews are in and BlackBerry Storm vs. Apple iPhone.

Even before Apple (AAPL) launched the iPhone, says American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu, he suspected the device would have "mediocre" corporate e-mail support — stemming in part from Microsoft's (MSFT) "lukewarm support" of Exchange on the Mac platform. (After all, Redmond has its Windows franchise to defend.)

That key weakness is likely to be addressed at the iPhone special event scheduled for next Thursday, according to Wu's industry and developer sources. And in a report to clients today, he handcaps the ways that might happen:

• from internal development (most likely),
• third-parties including MSFT (next likely) with its ActiveSync technology,
• or RIMM Blackberry Connect (possible but less likely)
• or a combination of two or more.

"We do not think it will be easy to replicate the robustness of Blackberry push e-mail," he adds, "but nonetheless, we view improvements as positive. Other enhancements we are picking up including improved security, better support of VPNs, and enterprise applications such as CRM."