Here's a tale of two demographics.

If you list the five bestsellers in Amazon's "Computers and PC Hardware" category today, you get five netbooks — three ASUS Eees and two ACER Aspire Ones. That's been the story pretty much all year.

If you list the five most popular items in "Computers and Software" on American Express's shopAmex site, you get four Apple (AAPL) products — three MacBooks, one Apple TV and one Sony (SNE) Blu-Ray player.

The first non Apple computer on the AMEX site is No. 17, a Dell (DELL) Inspiron. The first Apple on the Amazon list is No. 14, a white MacBook.

Why the difference? The Amazon site is open to everyone and tends to attract bargain hunters. The AMEX site is open only to card members, and although it advertises 30% discounts, it's attracting a different sort of clientele — one that doesn't seem to be put off by Apple's premium pricing.

Here are those lists:

The touchscreen tablet computer that is widely expected to be Apple's (AAPL) answer to those $300 netbooks will cost more, come later and be more dramatically different than most investors expect.

That's the thrust of a note to clients posted by Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster early Thursday.

According to Munster, the device will fill the gap between the iPod touch and the MacBook, cost between $500 and $700, run App Store apps and arrive some time in the first half of 2010.

"We are anticipating a new category of Apple products," he writes, "with an operating system more robust than the iPhone's but optimized for multi-touch…

"We expect the end result … to be launched later but with more dramatic differentiation than the Street is expecting."

Making the case for a touchscreen tablet, Munster ticks off the signs:

• Apple's consistent message that it refuses to launch a "cheap" portable netbook
• Its gradual addition of multi-touch technology to all of its core products (iPhones, iPods and Macs)
• Its acquisition of P.A. Semi along with other recent chip-related hires (making it increasingly clear that Apple is investing more in its mobile computing franchise)
• Apple's desire to differentiate itself in a maturing market before it's too late (similar to the timing of iPod and iPhone)

Rumors that Steve Jobs was working on a successor to the ill-fated Newton date back to at least Sept. 2007, 18  months after a team of Apple engineers is said to have begun working on it. According to AppleInsider, the tablet team was pulled off the project in 2006 to help get the iPhone out the door.

What's holding it up now, according to Munster's sources, is the operating system. "Its complexity, along with our conversations with a key company in the mobile space, leads us to believe [the new device] will not launch until calendar year 2010."

Munster does not address the question of whether the tablet will come with a real keyboard like the MacBook, or a virtual one like the iPod touch.

A touchscreen tablet wouldn't need a keyboard for videos, Web-surfing, iPhone apps or e-books. But some analysts believe it couldn't really serve as a netbook without a physical keyboard — if only as a peripheral.

On that other hand, it's hard to imagine Jobs or Jonathan Ive signing off on a design as clunky as, say, the Asus t91 pictured here, with its hinged, rotating keyboard.

Will Apple solve this dilemma? Apparently we're going to have to wait a little longer to find out.

See also:

• Netbook sales will soar to 22 million in 2009 – IDC
• Amazon’s Christmas bestsellers: Acer, Apple and Asus

Mac OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard, the update of Apple's (AAPL) current Macintosh operating system that Steve Jobs said would ship in "about a year" when he introduced it last June, may not arrive until later this summer or fall.

That's one of the nuggets of news offered by Kaufman Bros.' Shaw Wu in a report to clients issued Wednesday.

Among other findings Wu turned up in a check of his sources in Apple's supply chain and distribution network:

• Mac build plans have increased. Due to stronger-than-expected reception of Apple's newly introduced Macs, Wu says that the Street's current estimates of 2.2 – 2.3 million Macs shipped in the March quarter may turn out to be on the low side.
• New products in the works. Commenting on recent speculation about an Apple netbook, Wu says his sources suggest that "several initiatives" are being worked on, including perhaps a smaller MacBook Air or "MacBook mini" (essentially a netbook) and oversized iPod touches.
• The Mac mini is a "sleeper hit." Wu is seeing "surprisingly positive feedback" on Apple's cheapest Mac. He would liked to have seen lower prices, but he says the $599 display-and-keyboard-less box is being "warmly received" for its  larger hard drive, faster processor and NVIDIA graphics chip.
• Delayed quad-core iMac. Wu, like many other hardcore Mac users, was hoping for a quad-core iMac, as opposed to the dual-core machine Apple released last week. Now he says it makes more sense for Apple to wait for Snow Leopard, which takes better advantage of the quad core processors, and for lower-power parts from Intel that don't run quite so hot.

Wu's track record on Apple hardware predictions is mixed. He correctly predicted the release of new desktop Macs, but he also said that they would be unveiled two months earlier at Macworld, along with a new combination Apple TV/Time Capsule that never materialized. (link)

Apple has yet to respond to our request for comment.

UPDATE: The Wall Street Journal's Taipei bureau weighed in on this rumor Monday evening, adding screen dimensions that were missing from the original report. See below.

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The Chinese-language Commercial Times reported Monday that Wintek, a Taiwanese maker of LCD displays, will supply touchscreen panels for a mysterious new Apple (AAPL) product, with shipments to begin the second half of the year.

What that product might be is not clear — even Wintek says it doesn't know. But according to DigiTimes, the Taipei-based daily that carried the report in English, Commercial Times claims Apple is building "netbooks" for release later this year and that Quanta Computer, one of Apple's favorite suppliers, will be assembling them.

That's a claim that should be treated with some skepticism.

First of all, as MacRumors points out, the track record of Commercial Times when it comes to predicting Apple's products based on supply chain reports is mixed at best.

Second, the netbook market is one that Apple has managed to avoid — at least for now — to the benefit of its bottom line.

Netbooks, for anyone who hasn't been tracking recent computer sales trends, are low-cost sub-notebook sized computers designed for e-mailing, Web browsing and remote access to Web-based applications. They've been selling like crazy lately, driving down the average selling price of companies like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) while shrinking already slender profit margins. (See Apple so far immune to PC price "collapse.")

The question of when Apple is going to move into this market has come up at every quarterly analyst call since last fall.

"We don't know how to make a $500 computer that's not a piece of junk," Steve Jobs said last October, when asked if users were going to see cheaper computers from Apple. "Our DNA will not let us ship that."

Asked directly about the netbook market, he was dismissive. "We'll wait and see how that nascent category evolves, and we have got some pretty interesting ideas if it does evolve," he said. Besides, he added, Apple already has a product that fits the bill.

"You know, one of our entrants into that category if you will is the iPhone, for browsing the Internet, and doing email and all the other things that a netbook lets you do. … An iPhone is a pretty good solution for that, and it fits in your pocket."

Asked again in January about how Apple plans to respond to the market for netbooks, now that it's taking off, acting CEO Tim Cook echoed Jobs' remarks. Netbooks, he said, are "principally based on hardware that's much less powerful than we think customers want, software technology that is not good, cramped keyboards, small displays."

"We don't think people will be pleased with those products," Cook added. "It's a category we watch, we've got some ideas here, but right now we think the products are inferior and will not provide an experience to customers they're happy with."

So what is Wintek making for Apple, if not touchscreens for a netbook?

Since the dimensions of those screens were not provided, it could be almost anything, from a high-end iPhone to an oversized iPod touch to a  Newton-type tablet computer.

It could even be a netbook. But if it is, we suspect it won't be a piece of junk. And we're pretty sure it won't sell for less than $500.

UPDATE: Late Monday, the Dow Jones Newswire added fuel to the Apple netbook rumor with fresh details provided by two-unnamed sources:

"The mini laptop computers will likely have monitor screens that are between 9.7-inches and 10-inches, one person, who declined to be named, said.

"Another person said other specifications and functions are still under evaluation." (link)

[Image of an imaginary Apple touchscreen netbook courtesy of Gizmodo.]

Look what Santa left under Amazon.com's tree this Christmas morning:

• 7 Acer netbooks
• 7 Apple MacBooks
• 4 Asus netbooks
• 2 Samsung netbooks
• 2 MSI netbooks
• 1 OLPC (One laptop per child) XO laptop
• 1 Lenova Ideapad laptop
• 1 Toshiba Satellite laptop

Can you spot the ringer on Amazon's 2008 Christmas-day list of 25 bestselling notebook computers?

You guessed it. It's those seven premium-priced Apple (AAPL) MacBooks in a shopping cart dominated by stripped-down netbooks, heavily discounted Windows notebooks and a 2-for-1 "$100" laptop.

Except for the MacBooks and one $599 Toshiba, every computer on that list sells for less than $500.

The seven MacBooks, by contrast, sell for three times as much: an average of $1,473.41, after rebates.

It's almost as if Macintosh buyers were insensitive to price, even in a recession. In fact, the best-selling Apple on that list isn't the cheapest; it's a $1,299 unibody MacBook marked down to $1,218.98. The cheapest Apple — a $999 white MacBook, marked down to $929.99 — is No. 22.

Over on Amazon's desktop bestseller list, Apple did even better this Christmas morning: 4 of the top 5 are Macs.

Amazon (AMZN) is the world's largest online retailer, but for definitive holiday sales figures we'll have to wait for the quarterly reports.

Money gets tight. Buyers get picky. Price-sensitive consumers — the kind Steve Jobs  and Apple famously "choose not to serve" — start shopping for bargain basement PCs and Taiwanese netbooks. Mac sales plummet.

That's the conventional wisdom. Or at least that's the line Morgan Stanley's Kathryn Huberty pitched in September — when she lowered Apple's (AAPL) rating twice in two weeks — and reiterated last week, when she earned the distinction of being the first and only mainstream Apple analyst to set a 2009 price target below $100 a share. (see here)

“PC unit growth is decelerating," she wrote in September, "and the remaining source of growth is increasingly in the sub-$1000 market where Apple does not play.”

The only trouble with this argument, as Turley Muller of Financial Alchemist points out, is that it flies in the face of Macintosh unit sales for the first 12 months of the recession.

"Huberty claims Apple is at risk because it’s highly exposed to the premium-end, where demand has been falling," Muller writes in an analysis posted Friday. "However, Mac unit sales grew nearly 40% for 2008, and its share in the premium segment almost doubled. Mac sales have been growing roughly 3x the market."

Huberty, whose Mac and iPhone estimates are among the worst in the industry, has become a favorite target for Apple enthusiasts. (See Why Apple shares took a nosedive.)

But Muller may be the first to put his finger on precisely what she's doing wrong.

"I understand why consumers aren’t paying-up for Windows PCs," he writes. "How are HP, Dell, Acer, Toshiba, etc different from each other if they all use Intel chips, run Windows, and have many other of the same components?"

And because the PC industry is so dominated by Windows PCs, the dynamics that drive demand for Microsoft (MSFT) Windows machines are going to determine what demand for the entire industry looks like.

But, as Muller points out,

"Macs and Windows PCs are not similar product offerings. Some analysts, notably Huberty, appear to conflate the two. Macs are Windows machines, for one can install Windows OS on Mac hardware and use it just as if it were a Dell or HP. But, PCs such as Dell and HP can’t run Mac OS."

"Therefore," he writes, "it’s Windows PC demand that is shifting to the lower-end" (emphasis his).

Muller's analysis suggests that Apple was right not to offer sharp Black Friday discounts and to stay out of the business of making $500 computers — the kind of "junk" Steve Jobs says Apple's DNA won't allow it to ship.

Even Muller concedes, however, that no company is immune to the effects of an economic downturn of this magnitude. He argues — as others have before — that once you've tasted the benefits of the Mac OS, it's hard to switch back. But with money tight, buyers may be less likely to explore the high-price offerings in the Apple Store.

"The recession won’t cause cheap Windows PCs to take sales away from Macs," he concludes. "Instead it will slow the rate that Macs take share from PCs."

Click here to read the rest of Muller's piece.

TBR's Ezra Gottheil issued a remarkably detailed description Tuesday afternoon of the "inexpensive mobile device" he believes Apple (AAPL) will announce at MacWorld on Jan. 6 for delivery mid-year.

"It will come in two sizes," he writes, "one much like the MacBook Air and one similar to a netbook, with the smaller unit priced at $599."

Almost as if he had seen the specs, Gottheil ticks off the benefits the new device offers the user:

• It will provide web access, e-mail, media playing, and essential applications at a single low price.
• Computer beginners will be able to start using it quickly and easily. Users will have fewer questions, problems, conflicts and security breaches, as the device will be less intimidating than both PCs and Macs.
• As with the iPhone, iTunes and the App Store will offer an array of content, applications and games.
• As with the iPhone, the software can be rebuilt from the App Store. With an optional online backup service, the entire device can be restored. Under a more expensive support plan, Apple will be able to send the customer a replacement functional device if theirs is stolen or physically damaged.

There are also several benefits for Apple:

• It will open up new markets, including emerging economies, price-sensitive consumers, and those for whom all PCs, including Macs, are too complicated.
• Because all applications are delivered through the iTunes App Store, Apple will maintain sustained relationships with users, making it easier to upsell and cross-sell to existing customers. TBR believes Apple will make online services like MobileMe increasingly attractive to all customers, but purchasers of the new Apple device may find its simplicity especially appealing.
• The device will provide yet another entry point into the Apple digital hub family of products.
• Apple will be able to sell the captive peripherals that work with the device.

Moreover, the thing will give Apple entree into the most price-sensitive markets — an important consideration in the middle of a recession — with, as Gottheil sees it, only minimal risk of cannibalization of MacBook sales.

Of course, as John Paczkowski of AllThingsD reminds us, Steve Jobs pooh- poohed the whole netbook idea last October, and famously added:

"We don’t know how to make a $500 computer that’s not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that." (link)

But Gottheil's device, conveniently enough, starts at $599, giving Jobs just enough leeway not to have to eat his words.

We were intrigued, so we called Gottheil and asked for the source of his information.

"I made it up," he said, with remarkable candor.

"I have no spies or internal information. It's triangulated. It's logical. It fits with what they're trying to do. And it solves a lot of problems for them."

And it gives us something to talk about, three weeks before the Macworld keynote.

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray's top Apple (AAPL) analyst, published one of his trademark "unanswered questions" reports early Tuesday morning. You can read the full text — with all 12 questions and answers — at AppleInsider here. Or you can read the bullet points:

• A netbook in 2009. Although Steve Jobs has said the company "doesn't do cheap," Munster thinks Apple could do well this year with a 11" MacBook Air priced between $800 and $1,000. He doesn't expect a tablet Mac before 2010.
• The $630 iPhone. That's how much Munster believes Apple is getting, on average, from the carriers. He also believes that with falling component prices, Apple could lower its price to its partners by as much as $150 over the next six months and still maintain its profit margins.
• An iPhone in China. The phone's international rollout is "still in its early stages," says Munster, and he expects an announcement from one of the two big Chinese carriers (China Mobile, with 550 million subscribers, or China Unicom, with 128 million) within the next month or two.
• New iPhones. "Most investors believe the iPhone hardware will be the same throughout 2009 as it is today; we disagree," writes Munster. Quoting Steve Jobs' October remarks about not leaving a "price umbrella" below today's iPhone, Munster is looking for new phones on both the low (below $199) and high (above $299) end.
• The shrinking iPod. Munster is modeling a 12% contraction in unit sales year to year for fiscal 2009. That said, he believes the iPod remains a key "entry point into the Apple device ecosystem."
• iPhone gift cards. Because you now must activate new iPhones in store rather than at home, it's hard to buy an iPhone as a gift. Munster suggests that Apple may take a page from AT&T's (T) book and offer iPhone gift cards this holiday season. UPDATE: Reader Warren from Buffalo points out that Apple already offers iPhone gift cards.
• The last Apple bull. Despite the economic downturn and the fact that Apple was trading for $79.55 earlier this week – almost a two-year low — Munster is stubbornly sticking with his 2009 target of $250 a share.