The touchscreen tablet computer that is widely expected to be Apple's (AAPL) answer to those $300 netbooks will cost more, come later and be more dramatically different than most investors expect.

That's the thrust of a note to clients posted by Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster early Thursday.

According to Munster, the device will fill the gap between the iPod touch and the MacBook, cost between $500 and $700, run App Store apps and arrive some time in the first half of 2010.

"We are anticipating a new category of Apple products," he writes, "with an operating system more robust than the iPhone's but optimized for multi-touch…

"We expect the end result … to be launched later but with more dramatic differentiation than the Street is expecting."

Making the case for a touchscreen tablet, Munster ticks off the signs:

• Apple's consistent message that it refuses to launch a "cheap" portable netbook
• Its gradual addition of multi-touch technology to all of its core products (iPhones, iPods and Macs)
• Its acquisition of P.A. Semi along with other recent chip-related hires (making it increasingly clear that Apple is investing more in its mobile computing franchise)
• Apple's desire to differentiate itself in a maturing market before it's too late (similar to the timing of iPod and iPhone)

Rumors that Steve Jobs was working on a successor to the ill-fated Newton date back to at least Sept. 2007, 18  months after a team of Apple engineers is said to have begun working on it. According to AppleInsider, the tablet team was pulled off the project in 2006 to help get the iPhone out the door.

What's holding it up now, according to Munster's sources, is the operating system. "Its complexity, along with our conversations with a key company in the mobile space, leads us to believe [the new device] will not launch until calendar year 2010."

Munster does not address the question of whether the tablet will come with a real keyboard like the MacBook, or a virtual one like the iPod touch.

A touchscreen tablet wouldn't need a keyboard for videos, Web-surfing, iPhone apps or e-books. But some analysts believe it couldn't really serve as a netbook without a physical keyboard — if only as a peripheral.

On that other hand, it's hard to imagine Jobs or Jonathan Ive signing off on a design as clunky as, say, the Asus t91 pictured here, with its hinged, rotating keyboard.

Will Apple solve this dilemma? Apparently we're going to have to wait a little longer to find out.

See also:

• Netbook sales will soar to 22 million in 2009 – IDC
• Amazon’s Christmas bestsellers: Acer, Apple and Asus

The Apple (AAPL) numbers released by the NPD Group Monday were even worse than those predicted by Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster last week, yet he sees them as "a neutral or a slight positive" for the stock, given the uncertainties surrounding the entire computer industry this quarter.

NPD reported Mac and iPods sales both down 16% year to year in February, according to a report issued Monday to Piper Jaffray clients.

Analysts had expected both numbers to be down (although not quite that much), given how strong sales were in February 2008 and the fact that many Mac customers were holding out for the new machines that didn't get introduced until March 3. The Street was anticipating -4% growth in the February NPD Mac data, according to Munster.

Adding in overseas sales (which NPD does not measure), Munster now expects Apple to sell 2.0 to 2.2 million Macs by the end of the March quarter. He also estimates that the company will sell 9 to 10 million iPods in that period, in line with the Street's consensus of 9.5 million iPods.

As he did last week (see here), Munster says he thinks Mac sales will pick up in the last month of the quarter, thanks to the shipment of new iMacs, Mac minis and Mac Pros.

He also expects iPods to sell better in March, bolstered by the new iPod shuffles unveiled last week.

Finally, addressing the iPhone 3.0 special event scheduled for 10 a.m. PT (1 p.m. ET) Tuesday, Munster says he expects "significant new features" but no new iPhone hardware. Nor does he expect Steve Jobs, who is still on medical leave, to make an appearance at the event.

See also Mac sales bottomed out in February, says analyst

Fasten your seat belts.

Although Apple should report better-than-expected quarterly earnings after the close Monday — it almost always does — its shares could be in for a bumpy ride on Wall Street.

Apple's (AAPL) stock price — having bungee-jumped from $200 in late December to below $120 in mid-March and then back up to $190 in mid-May — has been drifting lower ever since, despite the high-profile launch of a new iPhone and the expectation of sharply higher earnings.

According to Thomson Financial's survey of analysts, Apple is expected to report net income of $972.6 million, or $1.08 per share, on sales of $7.4 billion. In the same period last year the company earned $818 million, or 92 cents a share, on sales of $5.4 billion.

But these days, even 18% earnings growth from Apple is unlikely to impress the Street. The company could report its best third fiscal quarter (our calendar Q2) yet and still lose market value.

By most accounts, Q3 was a strong one for Apple. In a report to clients issued Friday morning, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster saw good news in all three of its key divisions:

• Macintosh: He believes Apple will announce quarterly sales of 2.35 million Macs — 33% year-to-year growth in an industry that is growing at half that rate. (On Wednesday Gartner reported that Apple is now the No. 3 computer maker in the United States. See here.)
• iPhone: Munster is expecting Apple to report that it sold 730,000 iPhones in Q3 — slightly better than the 700,000 Apple already reported. (The 1 million iPhones that Apple claims flew off the shelves in three days last week don't count until next quarter.)
• iPod: Although many had predicted that the iPhone would cut into iPod sales, Munster is seeing little cannibalization so far. He expects Apple to report 10.5 to 11 million iPods sold — up from his previous estimate of 10.25 million.

But Wall Street's antennae are finely tuned for disappointment. Although Apple just had a record-breaking, made-for-TV product launch — with people still queuing up for the iPhone 3G a week after it went on sale — none of that produced much traction in Apple's share price. Investors seemed to concentrate instead on the fact that Apple's iPhone activation servers melted down, that most of their stores ran out of product and that the new MobileMe suite of Web services is a mess that the company still hasn't cleaned up (see here).

Shaw Wu, the top Apple analyst at American Technology Research, is focused on the company's gross margins, which came in surprisingly low last quarter for reasons that were never adequately explained. He's expecting gross margins of 33.5%, slightly higher than the company's 33% guidance. But he notes that lower component prices last quarter did not translate into higher gross margins. "Investors chose to ignore this and gave AAPL a 'free pass,'" he writes. "Given the macro environment, this quarter investors may not be so forgiving."

In an article entitled "Why I'm Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings" that got a lot of attention on the Seeking Alpha website last week, investor Ben Shuleva ticked off a litany of reasons he expects Apple's share price to get punished after Monday's earnings report, from cutbacks in education budgets that could eat into Apple's back-to-school sales to the way Apple books iPhone revenues over 24 months, an accounting complexity the Street still doesn't understand, no matter how many times Apple explains it.

"I am not bearish on Apple long-term," Shuleva wrote. But… "I am willing to make a significant bet that on a short-term basis, Apple's share price will deteriorate." (link)

Finally, there's the matter of Apple's guidance for its fourth quarter, which ends in September. Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's chief financial officer, has been known to send the stock into a tailspin by issuing numbers that are miles below Wall Street's expectations. "We believe AAPL will likely continue its tradition of conservative guidance," writes Wu, with considerable understatement.

The question is, how conservative? If it's the usual 9% or 10% below expectations, it shouldn't make much difference. Anything lower could damage the stock. And if Oppenheimer offers guidance that's better than expected, who knows, the stock might actually go up.

Apple executives will discuss the company's Q3 quarterly result and offer guidance for Q4 in a conference call Monday at 5 p.m. EDT (2 p.m. PDT). Apple plans to webcast the call (click here). We'll be dialing in — and live blogging — at Apple 2.0.