Mac OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard, the update of Apple's (AAPL) current Macintosh operating system that Steve Jobs said would ship in "about a year" when he introduced it last June, may not arrive until later this summer or fall.

That's one of the nuggets of news offered by Kaufman Bros.' Shaw Wu in a report to clients issued Wednesday.

Among other findings Wu turned up in a check of his sources in Apple's supply chain and distribution network:

• Mac build plans have increased. Due to stronger-than-expected reception of Apple's newly introduced Macs, Wu says that the Street's current estimates of 2.2 – 2.3 million Macs shipped in the March quarter may turn out to be on the low side.
• New products in the works. Commenting on recent speculation about an Apple netbook, Wu says his sources suggest that "several initiatives" are being worked on, including perhaps a smaller MacBook Air or "MacBook mini" (essentially a netbook) and oversized iPod touches.
• The Mac mini is a "sleeper hit." Wu is seeing "surprisingly positive feedback" on Apple's cheapest Mac. He would liked to have seen lower prices, but he says the $599 display-and-keyboard-less box is being "warmly received" for its  larger hard drive, faster processor and NVIDIA graphics chip.
• Delayed quad-core iMac. Wu, like many other hardcore Mac users, was hoping for a quad-core iMac, as opposed to the dual-core machine Apple released last week. Now he says it makes more sense for Apple to wait for Snow Leopard, which takes better advantage of the quad core processors, and for lower-power parts from Intel that don't run quite so hot.

Wu's track record on Apple hardware predictions is mixed. He correctly predicted the release of new desktop Macs, but he also said that they would be unveiled two months earlier at Macworld, along with a new combination Apple TV/Time Capsule that never materialized. (link)

Apple has yet to respond to our request for comment.

If it was Steve Jobs' intention to take the wind out of Macworld's sails, he's done a pretty good job.

"Expectations are low," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster in a note to clients early Tuesday, one week before the first Macworld Expo keynote since 1997 that won't be delivered by Apple's charismatic CEO.  "No significant new products are expected."

"Fairly modest" is how Kaufmann Bros.' Shaw Wu described investor expectations for the Expo, which runs from Jan. 5 – 9 in San Francisco and which Apple (AAPL) has already announced will be its last. "Frankly, we would be a little surprised if there is a major announcement, as we believe it would make better sense for Steve Jobs to do so himself at an AAPL event."

Behind Steve Jobs' Macworld exit

Both Wu and Munster are looking for Jobs' keynote stand-in — senior vice-president Phil Schiller — to introduce updated iMacs and redesigned Mac minis — hardly surprises given that both machines are overdue for a refresh.

Munster has not given up on the "new form factor iPhone" — a.k.a. iPhone nano — that he once thought would be announced at the January event. Now he doesn't expect it to arrive before the end of Apple's second fiscal quarter, which closes in March.

And he is sticking with his famous prediction — the most optimistic of any mainstream analyst — that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones in calendar 2009. But he reminds clients that that figure is predicated on his belief that Apple will enlarge its iPhone offerings, vastly expand its retail outlets and significantly lower its prices. So far it's only done one of the three.

Wal-Mart to sell iPhone starting Sunday

Shaw Wu also sees "strong indications" of a lower-cost iPhone and other "larger form factor touchscreen devices" — a.k.a. iPod tablet — later in the year. His sources hint that Apple may introduce a new "consumer device" next week — possibly a jazzed up Apple TV or a superconnected Time Capsule — a.k.a. home server — that would let you grab your files or do backups from anywhere on the Internet.

And Wu hasn't ruled out the possibility that Phil Schiller will surprise everyone next week with a breakthrough product that nobody is expecting, if only to send the message that Apple is a "much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend."

For our part, we haven't given up on the possibility that Steve Jobs will make a surprise cameo appearance during Schiller's keynote, if only to show that he's still kicking — Gizmodo's latest rumor to the contrary — and still very much in charge.

Like nature, the Apple rumor mill abhors a vacuum, and for much of this month it has been filled with talk of "the Brick."

What is the Brick? The question was first posed the day after Steve Jobs' "Let's Rock" keynote address by Cleve Nettles on the Apple blog 9 to 5 Mac. He wrote that a tipster with "a solid track record" told him that the mid-October introduction of a new line of MacBooks (see here) is "all about the Brick."

"What does 'The Brick' mean?" Nettles asked his readers. "Can anyone out there help us out?" (link)

Readers were happy to oblige. Hundreds of messages, dozens of blog postings, and at least two reader polls later, no definitive answers have emerged. Speculation reached a fever pitch this weekend after The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) reported that Apple had e-mailed resellers with instructions to remove and destroy all Apple TV displays and literature by 5 p.m. Sept. 30, when a webcast "kick off" was supposedly scheduled. Could the Brick be the long-awaited arrival of Apple TV, Take 3?

The Sept. 30 deadline, it turns out, is the anniversary of the debut of those Apple TV store displays, which suggests that the company may simply be destroying some outdated print material containing screen shots whose permissions have run out. (link)

But that hasn't slowed the flood of ideas about what Steve Jobs might have up his sleeve next. As is often the case with Apple watchers, the speculation says more about their needs and fantasies than Apple's (AAPL) product plans.

So what's on their wish list? A sampling of what some have suggested the Brick might be:

• An Apple TV with a built-in Blu-Ray disk, TV receiver, digital TV recorder and its own App store (link)
• A new Apple-branded gaming system (link)
• A Time Capsule with "smarts" that functions as an iTunes server (link)
• A redesigned and much more powerful Mac Mini (link)
• The announcement that Apple has aquired TiVo (TIVO) and is discontinuing the Apple TV (link)
• A tablet-sized Mac with a touch-screen keyboard (link)
• A low-cost MacBook to compete in the sub-notebook market (link)
• A wireless USB hub that that links keyboards, mice, DVD drives, networking, hard drives, new displays (link)
• Nothing brick-shaped, but rather a product or group of products sexy enough to "smash" Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows once and for all (link)

My favorite reader comment, posted by "cardiomac" on TUAW in response to a suggestion that the Apple TV was "not meant to be a computer," borrows from the "The Lovesong of J. Alfred Prufrock":

No! I am not a computer, nor was meant to be;

Am an attendant lord, one that will do

To swell a progress, start a scene or two,

Advise the prince; no doubt, an easy tool,

Deferential, glad to be of use,

Politic, cautious, and meticulous;

Full of high sentence, but a bit obtuse;

At times, indeed, almost ridiculous—

Almost, at times, the Fool. (link)

None of this is set in stone — especially as long as Steve Jobs retains the prerogative to change his mind at the last minute — but AppleInsider has posted the most definitive road map to date of Apple's (AAPL) fall product lineup.

Citing unnamed "people familiar with the situation," AppleInsider's Kasper Jade ticks off a schedule of release for a batch of new iPods, overhauled notebooks and refreshed iMacs, confirming several rumors that have been floating around for weeks and adding a few of his own.

Taken alone, none of these announcements sound quite big enough to account for the sharp drop in the company's gross margins — from 34.1% to 31.5% — CFO Peter Oppenheimer warned analysts to expect this quarter, citing a mysterious "future product transition." But together, they might do the trick.

Here they are, in the order Jade expects them to be released:

• New iPods in September. Digg founder Kevin Rose, an Apple watcher with a track record considerably more checkered than Jade's, predicted last Friday that Apple would soon revamp its entire iPod line, cutting prices sharply, making cosmetic changes to the iPod touch and introducing a significantly redesigned iPod nano with a long thin screen (link). Over the weekend Rose specified a date on which all this would occur: September 9 (link). Without endorsing that particular Tuesday as the date, Jade's sources confirm that Steve Jobs himself will headline a special event tentatively scheduled for the second week of September in which "cheaper and slightly modified iPod touches players and new iPod nanos and related service announcements are expected to take center stage." (link) One thing that will not be announced at that event, according to Jade's sources, is the long-rumored Newton-like handheld multi-touch device.
• New MacBooks and MacBook Pros in September or October. Jade's sources are cagey about the timing here, but they were explicit in saying that new versions of Apple's hot-selling notebook computers would not be available until some time after the new iPods are introduced. Whether that means they are announced at a separate event — perhaps in October — or whether they will be announced at the same event and shipped some weeks later is one of those mysteries that may not get cleared up until the event actually occurs. Among the changes expected: a MacBook clad in aluminum (like the Pro) rather than plastic; tapering around the edges (a la MacBook Air) to produce a slimming effect; a mysterious new chipset (but still with an Intel (INTC) CPU); and a newly designed battery cover and latch that offer easier access to the hard drive.
• Refreshed 20-inch and 24-inch iMacs in November. This is a brand new rumor, rather than a rumor confirming old rumors. According to Jade:
  • "People familiar with these plans have described the refresh to consist of 'speed bumps' rather than major internal or external changes. Based on the roadmap presented to AppleInsider, these systems would debut later this fall following the release of the new MacBooks, making their way to market with little fanfare."

Not expected before the end of the year are refreshes of the Mac Pro or the Mac mini, although Jade's sources report that the latter, once given up for dead, is getting a "major overhaul — the most significant in the mini's short history."

[Timeline and photos courtesy of AppleInsider.]

The Macworld Conference & Expo, Silicon Valley's largest technology trade show, opens Monday. But the moment everyone is waiting for comes Tuesday morning, when Steve Jobs makes his annual keynote address at San Francisco's Moscone Center.

Jobs has set a high bar for himself. At Macworld 2006, he introduced the first Intel (INTC)-based Macs — sparking a burst of sales that nearly doubled Apple's (AAPL) market share from roughly 4% to something approaching 8% (link). At Macworld 2007 he unveiled not just the all-but-forgotten Apple TV, but also the iPhone — a device that in nearly everybody's book turned out to be the machine of the year.

What can Jobs do to top that?

There's no shortage of speculation. The Apple rumor machinery has grown so elaborate that for the second year in a row, Ars Technica's John Siracusa has published a keynote Bingo card (available in PDF format here and in iPhone format here), with boxes to be filled in as Jobs makes his announcements, introduces his guests and trots out his trademark rhetorical flourishes. (The rules of the game are spelled out here.)

Nobody has yet shouted out "Bingo!" in middle of a Steve Jobs presentation — a moment brilliantly anticipated in IBM's buzzword Bingo TV ad (link) — but this could be the year.

Some of Siracusa's boxes are obviously more important than others. A couple (Mac Pro and Xserve) were preemptively filled last week, and there are a few key possibilities that he missed. Watch especially for:

• A Skinny MacBook. Probably the leading candidate for Jobs' one-more-thing moment, it's already been named — Macbook air, thin, nano and mini — and imagined in PhotoShop (see here, for example) by bloggers who should know better. Likely specs: 12 to 13-inch. LED backlit screen, under 3 lbs., half as thick as today's MacBooks, 32, 64 or even 128GB solid-state flash drive, priced around $1,600.
• iPhone updates. A bump in capacity from 8GB to 16GB and maybe 32GB is expected, as well as a preview of the software developers toolkit (SDK) promised for February; we might even get a few demos from developers, like EA, who were seeded with the SDK last fall. A 3G iPhone and a Newton-type tablet are reported to be in the works, but not yet ready for prime time.
• Movie rentals. This is the item Hollywood is following most closely. It's been widely reported that Fox and Disney are likely to make movies available on iTunes for overnight rental (at $3 to $5 for 24 hours) or for purchase for roughly the price of a shrink-wrapped DVD. If, as rumored, Paramount, Lions Gate and Warner Bros join them, the flood of fresh video content could breath new life into the Apple TV. (The Associated Press reported Sunday that Netflix (NFLX), anticipating such a move by Apple, will offer unlimited monthly video streaming.)
• DRM-free Music. Having famously championed the cause with his February 2007 Thoughts on Music memo, it would be surprising — and disappointing — if Jobs did not use this opportunity to announce a significant expansion of the DRM-free offerings in the iTunes Store, especially after the last of the major labels announced last week that they were putting their music on Amazon.com (AMZN) without copy protection.
• Microsoft (MSFT) Office 2008. No surprises here, since the reviews are already in, but an excuse for what should be the most lavish after-hours party of the show.
• The Beatles. It's about time. Just in case, Yoko Ono's John Lennon Educational Tour Bus mobile recording studio is making the trip from its Las Vegas unveiling at the Consumer Electronics Show to be at Macworld. A few hours after Jobs' speech, there's a press reception in the bus that's co-sponsored by Apple.

You already see the flashbulbs popping, right? But is it enough? Apple's marketing machinery is like a shark that must keep swimming or die. Even if nearly every square on the Bingo card were to be filled on Tuesday, would Jobs have delivered the kind of innovation and buzz the faithful have come to expect?

And then there's Wall Street to consider. Apple was the high-flying tech stock of year, its share prices having more than doubled in 2007. But as a CNNMoney headline put it on Friday, "What've you done for me lately?" The stock fell nearly 30 points over the last two weeks, which could be taken as a measure of traders' uncertaintly. (Or it could just be a well-timed pause to set up the Macworld effect, the short-term bump tech share prices often enjoy after a Steve Jobs' keynote.)

No matter how high the bar, Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg is confident that Jobs will clear it. "This is a company that thinks in terms of strategy," he says. "Do I think they'll deliver something as disruptive as the iPhone? No. You don't achieve that kind of disruption every week; it would be tantamount to getting into a whole new industry. But somehow Jobs always manages to meet expectations, even if the expectations are different."

To find out how different, tune in Tuesday for Fortune senior writer Jon Fortt live blogging from the keynote at fortune.com/bigtech, video coverage from CNNMoney.com and our post-keynote analysis here on Tuesday afternoon.

With less than two weeks to go before Steve Jobs' Jan. 15 keynote, analyst Shaw Wu of American Technology Research offers his best guess for what Apple's (AAPL) CEO might have up his sleeve at Macworld Expo 2008. In a note to clients issued this morning, Wu predicts:

• Blu-ray. Citing unnamed sources, Wu says that Apple will outline an HD strategy that backs Sony's Blu-ray format over the HD-DVD standard favored by Microsoft. (Although Wu hedges his bets and suggests that Apple might also use a combo Blu-ray/HD-DVD drive.)
• Subnotebook. Wu says Apple will re-enter the subnotebook space (nothing new there) but adds that Jobs may call the new machine the MacBook mini or MacBook slim. Any preferences?
• Movie rentals. Wu points out that the digital movie rental deals expected to be announced at Macworld are a departure driven by necessity, and represent a new business model for Apple. "Whether these movies expire based on time and/or usage is unclear to us," he writes, "But we do believe that rentals are a significant change in its philosophy."
• Speed bumps and external HDD: In the category of smaller announcements, Wu is picking up potential news related to speed bumps and or capacity bumps in current Macs and iPhones, and an external HDD storage/dock/streaming device for the Airport Extreme and the new MacBook mini/slim.
• Apple TV. Wu sees two big shortcomings in the current product: 1. no way to connect directly to the Internet for TV and movie content and 2. lack of a TV tuner. "Our sources indicate that AAPL is working on fixing these weaknesses to make Apple TV a much stronger product," he writes, later in 2008 or perhaps 2009, but not at Macworld 2008.
• 3G iPhone. Coming mid to second-half 2008 at a higher price point, Wu says, allowing Apple to reposition the current iPhone as a "more mainstream" product.