Mac OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard, the update of Apple's (AAPL) current Macintosh operating system that Steve Jobs said would ship in "about a year" when he introduced it last June, may not arrive until later this summer or fall.

That's one of the nuggets of news offered by Kaufman Bros.' Shaw Wu in a report to clients issued Wednesday.

Among other findings Wu turned up in a check of his sources in Apple's supply chain and distribution network:

• Mac build plans have increased. Due to stronger-than-expected reception of Apple's newly introduced Macs, Wu says that the Street's current estimates of 2.2 – 2.3 million Macs shipped in the March quarter may turn out to be on the low side.
• New products in the works. Commenting on recent speculation about an Apple netbook, Wu says his sources suggest that "several initiatives" are being worked on, including perhaps a smaller MacBook Air or "MacBook mini" (essentially a netbook) and oversized iPod touches.
• The Mac mini is a "sleeper hit." Wu is seeing "surprisingly positive feedback" on Apple's cheapest Mac. He would liked to have seen lower prices, but he says the $599 display-and-keyboard-less box is being "warmly received" for its  larger hard drive, faster processor and NVIDIA graphics chip.
• Delayed quad-core iMac. Wu, like many other hardcore Mac users, was hoping for a quad-core iMac, as opposed to the dual-core machine Apple released last week. Now he says it makes more sense for Apple to wait for Snow Leopard, which takes better advantage of the quad core processors, and for lower-power parts from Intel that don't run quite so hot.

Wu's track record on Apple hardware predictions is mixed. He correctly predicted the release of new desktop Macs, but he also said that they would be unveiled two months earlier at Macworld, along with a new combination Apple TV/Time Capsule that never materialized. (link)

Apple has yet to respond to our request for comment.

Apple's (AAPL) last Macworld Conference and Expo opens Monday at San Francisco's Moscone Center, but the real action starts Tuesday at 9 a.m. PT (12 noon ET) with senior vice president Phil Schiller's opening remarks — the first Macworld keynote not delivered by Steve Jobs since 1997.

Nobody's expecting breakthrough products that rise to the level of the iMac (Macworld 1998), the iBook (1999), iTunes (2001) or the iPhone (2007), but this Expo is not without its drama, speculation and hype.

Our top 10 favorite Macworld rumors:

10. Snow Leopard release date. We know a lot about Mac OS X 10.6, thanks to Jobs' June 2008 announcement that it was coming, Apple's official description of the product and a steady stream of leaks from the developer community. What we don't know is when it will ship.

9. Unibody 17-inch MacBook Pro. By several accounts, this machine was supposed to be released in October, along with the new unibody 13-inch MacBook and 15-inch MacBook Pro. But display issues and problems with the optical drive reportedly pushed its release back "several months" — which brings us to next week's Expo. UPDATE: Seth Weintraub at 9to5Mac adds this twist: the new 17-inch Pro will sport a superslim longer-lasting nonremovable battery pack.

8. Revamped iWork. The big news on New Year's Eve was the "truckload" of information dumped on various rumor sites about iWork — Apple's homegrown answer to Microsoft (MSFT) Office.  The thrust of it was that what's now a suite of desktop applications — Pages, Numbers and Keynote — is about to be transformed into a collection of Web-based apps like the .Mac Web Gallery, suitable for cloud computing.

7. 32 GB iPhone. Whispers that Apple was set to double the memory of the top-end iPhone have been floating around since September, but AT&T's (T) post-Christmas $99 iPhone sale and word that Apple had sewed up the lion's share Samsung's flash memory production all point to a January release.

6. 64 GB iPod touch. Rumors of this memory upgrade go back even further. It was supposed to happen in August, then in September, and then before Christmas. With memory prices falling, time is more than ripe.

5. New Mac mini. Rumors of the most affordable Mac's imminent demise have given way to a flood of new specs, among them  2.0 or 2.3 GHz Core 2 Duo processors, NVIDIA graphics platform, dual display outputs and dual drives that can be configured every which way.

4. New iMac. Some inspired sleuthing in the extension files that shipped with the new MacBooks found references to NVIDIA chipsets for both a Mac mini and a new iMac — along with hints that the reconfigured all-in-one desktop was supposed to ship in November but got pushed into 2009 by unexpected delays. DigiTimes now reports that Apple has ordered shipments of 800,000 per month.

3. New iPod shuffle. FBR Capital Markets' Craig Berger, whose track record AppleInsider describes as "questionable," expects Apple to release a new and smaller version of the iPod shuffle sometime in the first calendar quarter — which started on Thursday. AppleInsider adds that it has picked up chatter of a new shuffle that would be flat as a credit card but thick enough at one end to fit a headphone jack.

2. New Apple TV/Time Capsule. This one also comes from an analyst. Shaw Wu, a veteran Apple watcher newly ensconsed at Kaufman Bros., wrote last week about the possibility that Apple will introduce a new consumer device — "an enhanced version of Apple TV and/or Time Capsule" — that would give users access to their media content, SlingBox style, from anywhere on the Internet.

1. Steve Jobs. Show or no-show, Apple's CEO is both Macworld 2009's No. 1 rumor and the No. 1 source of rumors — whether it be that he's stepping down, that his health is failing, that he doesn't feel there's enough news in Nos. 1-9 to justify a Steve Jobs keynote, or that he just doesn't feel like playing in Macworld's sandbox anymore. We favor the theory that he's set the stage brilliantly for a surprise cameo appearance. Er, UPDATE: See What's going on with Steve Jobs' homones?

Below the line:

• iPhone nano. Despite all the chatter — and spy photos — not this Macworld. Maybe later this year.
• iPod tablet. Maybe later this year. Maybe never.

Is there truth to any of this? We'll be flying to San Francisco Monday to find out. Tune in to this space early Tuesday for our Macworld 2009 live blog.

[Photo courtesy of setteB.IT.]

Below the fold: How Phil Schiller could hit a home run next Tuesday, as imagined on The Mac Observer's Apple Finance Board by one of the regulars, retired Air Force pilot Pat Smellie.

UPDATE: In case you haven't heard, almost none of this came true on Tuesday. By my count, the rumor mill is batting less than 150. See Live from Apple's last Macworld!

More

If it was Steve Jobs' intention to take the wind out of Macworld's sails, he's done a pretty good job.

"Expectations are low," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster in a note to clients early Tuesday, one week before the first Macworld Expo keynote since 1997 that won't be delivered by Apple's charismatic CEO.  "No significant new products are expected."

"Fairly modest" is how Kaufmann Bros.' Shaw Wu described investor expectations for the Expo, which runs from Jan. 5 – 9 in San Francisco and which Apple (AAPL) has already announced will be its last. "Frankly, we would be a little surprised if there is a major announcement, as we believe it would make better sense for Steve Jobs to do so himself at an AAPL event."

Behind Steve Jobs' Macworld exit

Both Wu and Munster are looking for Jobs' keynote stand-in — senior vice-president Phil Schiller — to introduce updated iMacs and redesigned Mac minis — hardly surprises given that both machines are overdue for a refresh.

Munster has not given up on the "new form factor iPhone" — a.k.a. iPhone nano — that he once thought would be announced at the January event. Now he doesn't expect it to arrive before the end of Apple's second fiscal quarter, which closes in March.

And he is sticking with his famous prediction — the most optimistic of any mainstream analyst — that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones in calendar 2009. But he reminds clients that that figure is predicated on his belief that Apple will enlarge its iPhone offerings, vastly expand its retail outlets and significantly lower its prices. So far it's only done one of the three.

Wal-Mart to sell iPhone starting Sunday

Shaw Wu also sees "strong indications" of a lower-cost iPhone and other "larger form factor touchscreen devices" — a.k.a. iPod tablet — later in the year. His sources hint that Apple may introduce a new "consumer device" next week — possibly a jazzed up Apple TV or a superconnected Time Capsule — a.k.a. home server — that would let you grab your files or do backups from anywhere on the Internet.

And Wu hasn't ruled out the possibility that Phil Schiller will surprise everyone next week with a breakthrough product that nobody is expecting, if only to send the message that Apple is a "much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend."

For our part, we haven't given up on the possibility that Steve Jobs will make a surprise cameo appearance during Schiller's keynote, if only to show that he's still kicking — Gizmodo's latest rumor to the contrary — and still very much in charge.

None of this is set in stone — especially as long as Steve Jobs retains the prerogative to change his mind at the last minute — but AppleInsider has posted the most definitive road map to date of Apple's (AAPL) fall product lineup.

Citing unnamed "people familiar with the situation," AppleInsider's Kasper Jade ticks off a schedule of release for a batch of new iPods, overhauled notebooks and refreshed iMacs, confirming several rumors that have been floating around for weeks and adding a few of his own.

Taken alone, none of these announcements sound quite big enough to account for the sharp drop in the company's gross margins — from 34.1% to 31.5% — CFO Peter Oppenheimer warned analysts to expect this quarter, citing a mysterious "future product transition." But together, they might do the trick.

Here they are, in the order Jade expects them to be released:

• New iPods in September. Digg founder Kevin Rose, an Apple watcher with a track record considerably more checkered than Jade's, predicted last Friday that Apple would soon revamp its entire iPod line, cutting prices sharply, making cosmetic changes to the iPod touch and introducing a significantly redesigned iPod nano with a long thin screen (link). Over the weekend Rose specified a date on which all this would occur: September 9 (link). Without endorsing that particular Tuesday as the date, Jade's sources confirm that Steve Jobs himself will headline a special event tentatively scheduled for the second week of September in which "cheaper and slightly modified iPod touches players and new iPod nanos and related service announcements are expected to take center stage." (link) One thing that will not be announced at that event, according to Jade's sources, is the long-rumored Newton-like handheld multi-touch device.
• New MacBooks and MacBook Pros in September or October. Jade's sources are cagey about the timing here, but they were explicit in saying that new versions of Apple's hot-selling notebook computers would not be available until some time after the new iPods are introduced. Whether that means they are announced at a separate event — perhaps in October — or whether they will be announced at the same event and shipped some weeks later is one of those mysteries that may not get cleared up until the event actually occurs. Among the changes expected: a MacBook clad in aluminum (like the Pro) rather than plastic; tapering around the edges (a la MacBook Air) to produce a slimming effect; a mysterious new chipset (but still with an Intel (INTC) CPU); and a newly designed battery cover and latch that offer easier access to the hard drive.
• Refreshed 20-inch and 24-inch iMacs in November. This is a brand new rumor, rather than a rumor confirming old rumors. According to Jade:
  • "People familiar with these plans have described the refresh to consist of 'speed bumps' rather than major internal or external changes. Based on the roadmap presented to AppleInsider, these systems would debut later this fall following the release of the new MacBooks, making their way to market with little fanfare."

Not expected before the end of the year are refreshes of the Mac Pro or the Mac mini, although Jade's sources report that the latter, once given up for dead, is getting a "major overhaul — the most significant in the mini's short history."

[Timeline and photos courtesy of AppleInsider.]

It's been almost a decade since Steve Jobs drove the last of the licensed Mac clones out of business, but that hasn't stopped bargain hunting users from trying to get the Mac experience without feeding Apple's hefty profit margins.

Persuading a generic PC to run OS X isn't that hard to do. Ever since Apple (AAPL) switched from PowerPC to Intel, hackers in the OSx86 movement have been playing cat-and-mouse with Cupertino, writing a series of patches and emulators to get around the Mac's Extensible Firmware Interface (EFI) and other built-in barriers to cloning.

But the $399 Mac compatible computer that hit the market this week is another matter. It's a cease-and-desist order waiting to happen.

The manufacturer is a small, Miami-based reseller of Voice-over-Internet, security and networking systems called Psystar. Its website invites you to order a PC "capable of running unmodified OS X Leopard kernels" with the following specs:

• 2.2GHz Intel Core 2 Duo
• 2GB of DDR2 667 memory
• Integrated Intel GMA 950 Graphics
• 20x DVD+/-R Drive
• 4 USB Ports
• 250GB 7200RPM Drive

Basically, it's a Mac Mini with twice the memory at half the price. So what's not to love?

The problem for Psystar — and anyone counting on them to stay in business and provide the support they promise — is the second part of their offer: If you buy a copy of Leopard at the same time, they promise preinstall it for free.

That's where Apple's lawyers come in. Leopard's End User License Agreement (EULA) is pretty clear. Section 2A reads:

This License allows you to install, use and run one (1) copy of the Apple Software on a single Apple-labeled computer at a time.

And that's what's wrong with this $399 Mac.