It took the iPod 17 quarters to reach 30 million units. The iPhone did it in 10.

iPod quarters date from fiscal Q1 2002; iPhone from Q3 2007. Source: Company reports

Thanks to AAPLinvestors' Terry Gregory for gathering the data from Apple's (AAPL) quarterly reports. You can see his spreadsheet here.

Below the fold: A version of the chart that extends the iPod numbers to the end of fiscal 2009.

UPDATE: Also, per reader request, a chart showing sales per quarter for the first 20 quarters.

Source: Company reports

Source: Company reports

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

The Mac and iPod slices shrank between '08 and '09. iTunes grew a bit. iPhone grew a lot.

Source: Company reports

Steve Jobs likes to describe Apple's (AAPL) business model as a stool built on three-legs: the Mac, the iPod and the iPhone.

But a quick glance at the 2009 Form 10-K, which Apple filed on Tuesday, shows that it is now more like a four-leg chair, with a couple of wedge-shaped pillows on the side.

The Mac and iPod still bring in the biggest part of Apple's total sales revenue — 37.7% and 22.1%, respectively — but their shares of the pie are shrinking.

The iPhone, meanwhile, is rapidly catching up, thanks to unit sales that grew 78% and GAAP revenue (swelled by deferred revenue dating back to 2007) that grew 266%. The iPhone now accounts for 18.5% of Apple's sales, just behind the iPod.

The fourth leg of the chair is the line item Apple calls "other music related products and services" but which is mostly iTunes Store sales — music, video and apps. It continues to grow at a steady pace and now represents about 11% of Apple's net sales.

Spreadsheets summarizing Apple's revenue streams are pasted below the fold. Apple's 2009 Form 10-K is available as a pdf file here.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Net sales by product in millions.

Source: Apple 10-K report

Share of total revenue by product.

Source: Apple 10-K report

Both companies beat expectations last week, but only one of them was growing

Click to enlarge. Source: Company reports, Oct. 2009.

A year ago we ran a bar graph similar to the one at right. It showed that Apple (AAPL), despite the Mac's tiny market share compared with Microsoft (MSFT) Windows, was gaining on the software giant. The main reason: revenue pouring in from the iPhone but hidden as deferred earnings in Apple's balance sheet. (That chart is posted below the fold.)

Last week Apple and Microsoft once again reported quarterly earnings — and enjoyed nice pops on the stock market. But their growth rates turn out to be very different.

This quarter, deferred iPhone revenue isn't as big a deal for Apple as it was last year (non-GAAP earnings actually grew more slowly than GAAP; see here for why). Ironically, it was Microsoft that had to use deferred revenue from Windows 7 to show any growth at all. Otherwise, Microsoft's revenue for the third quarter was down 14% year over year and its earnings down 17%.

Apple's revenue, meanwhile, grew 25% and its income 46.6%.

Apple's war chest, in terms of cash and cash equivalents, is larger than Microsoft's, $34 billion to $33 billion, taking long-term debt into account (Apple has none).

And as far as market share, that depends what market you're looking at.

The bar graph above shows the Mac's share of the U.S. personal computer market, which has inched up to 9.4%, according to IDC.

Meanwhile, the iPhone's share of the worldwide smartphone market has grown from 2.8% to 13.3%, according to Gartner, while Windows Mobile has been relegated to "Others." And the iPod continues to command roughly 70% of the MP3 player market; Zune's share hovers around 2%.

The consensus on Wall Street is that Microsoft has turned a corner, and both Apple and Microsoft rallied last week. But over the past year — since we last did this exercise — Apple's shares have grown four times faster.

Below, as promised, last year's version of the bar chart:

Date: Oct. 26, 2008

Click on the chart to see last year's post.

Thanks to reader Mark Taylor for the suggestion.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

(AAPL) (MSFT)

Everybody failed to predict Cupertino's blowout quarter, but some failed worse than others

Smackdown: See full spreadsheet below

"Well, that was quite embarrassing!" writes "deagol," a widely read amateur analyst whose estimate of Apple's (AAPL) fourth quarter earnings fell 16% short of the record profits the company reported Monday.

The irony is that deagol, who filed a long post-mortem mea culpa on his website Monday night, had less to be embarrassed about than 18 of the 19 Wall Street analysts we polled in advance of Apple's fiscal 2009 4Q earnings report. (See The Street awaits Apple's earnings.)

Once again, the amateurs and independents out-performed the professionals in our quarterly Apple analyst bake-off. The color-coded spreadsheet is pasted below the fold.

But first, some general comments about why everybody failed to predict that Apple's profits would grow 46% or that the company would sell a record 3 million Macs — up 17% in a quarter in which its competitors, selling cut-rate Windows boxes at razor-thin profit margins, grew an anemic 2%. (See here.)

The key misses:

• Macs. Apple was right and Microsoft's (MSFT) Laptop Hunters ad campaign was wrong. Consumers — or at least enough of them — were shopping for user experience, not low prices or spec lists.
• iPods. Although Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster dismisses the iPod as "no longer an investable theme" due to cannibalization from the iPhone, iPod touch sales were up 100%, suggesting that there may be still be life in the category.
• iPhones. A record 7.4 million sold even though Apple couldn't build them fast enough to meet demand. We won't even talk about Jim Cramer, who told his Mad Money audience that because of this, Apple's share price was going to fall — not explode as it did in after-hours trading.
• ASPs. Average selling prices actually went up a bit, rather than down as you might have expected after back-to-school sales and price cuts on iPhones and MacBooks. Deagol attributes it to 15" and 17" MacBook Pros getting "crazy popular" among college students.
• Taxes. For reasons I can't begin to explain, Apple's effective tax rate was 25.6%, not the 30% they had guided.

Without further ado, our Analyzing-the-Analysts spreadsheet, with best results highlighted in green and worst in red. Responding to reader requests, this time I've also highlighted second worst in pink and second best (and in one category third best) in light green.

Revenue in billions; earnings in dollars/share; unit sales in millions; Gross margin in %. Source: Philip Elmer-DeWitt

A tip of the hat, as Stephen Colbert might say, to Brian Marshall at Broadpoint AmTech, who scored the most greens by filing the most bullish report. And as always to our three independent analysts, who managed to stay entirely out of the red. You can read Turley Muller at Financial Alchemist, Deagol at Deagol's AAPL Model, and Andy Zaky (when he's writing) at Bullish Cross. These guys are too good not to be making a living at it.

A wag of the finger to the insufficiently bullish: BMO Capitol's Keith Bachman, Needham's Charlie Wolf and most of all Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner, whose last-minute warning of iPhone production "hiccups" sent the Mad Money in precisely the wrong direction.

See also:

• Apple's Q3: Analyzing the analysts
• Apple's Q2: Analyzing the analysts
• Apple's Q1: Analyzing the analysts
• Apple's 2008 Q4: Analyzing the analysts

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

So much for expectations. Apple (AAPL) blew past them all — its own and those of a crowd of increasingly bullish analysts — by reporting its most profitable quarter ever, earning $1.82 a share on revenue of $9.87 billion for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2009.

The Street was expecting quarterly earnings of $1.42 on revenue of $9.2 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Apple's shares exploded in after-hours trading. Having closed at $189.86, shares leaped more than 13 points in the next hour and 40 minutes to $202.87 — one thin dime away from the all-time high of $202.97 set in intraday trading on Dec. 27, 2007.

Sales for the year were a record $36.5 billion, up 12.5% from 2008. Earnings per share for the year topped $6.29, up more than 17% from the year before.

Strong sale of iPhones — following price cuts and the introduction of a new model — helped boost Apple's earnings.

But the big surprise was the Macintosh. Apple sold 3.05 million Macs for in Q4 — a 17% increase from same quarter last year — thanks to its new Snow Leopard operating system, re-energized back-to-school sales and a big order from the state of Maine.

"We are thrilled to have sold more Macs and iPhones than in any previous quarter," said Steve Jobs in a prepared statement."

Highlights from Apple's earnings report include:

• Mac sales: 3.05 million units, up 17.3% year over year
• iPhone sales: 7.4 million units, up 41% from last year
• iPod sales: 10.2 million, down from just over 11 million a year ago
• iPod touch sales were up 100% from last year
• Gross margin: 36.3%, up from 34.7% last year
• Cash: $34 billion, up $2.9 billion from $31.1 billion last quarter
• Guidance for the December quarter: revenue between $11.3 and $11.6 billion, EPS between $1.70 and $1.78, gross margin 34%

Apple's press release is available here.

A replay of the conference call will be available for the next two weeks, starting at 5 p.m. PDT. The instructions are here. Seeking Alpha has published a transcript here.

See also:

• The Street awaits Apple's earnings
• Retail data show Mac sales up 13%
• Will iPhone sales disappoint investors?

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Photo: Apple Inc.

Several analysts waited until Monday morning — the same day Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings report — to send clients their estimates of the company's unit sales (see here). But Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster waited longest of all.

Munster released a note at 1:54 p.m. Eastern — about two and a half hours before Apple's results are due to hit the wires — with his latest estimates for Mac and iPod sales.

He was waiting for data from the NPD Group, which surveys U.S. retail outlets and reports sales of a variety of goods — including electronics — on a monthly basis.

According to Munster, NPD data for the past three months show domestic Mac sales up 13% year over year, which implies unit sales of 2.85 million to 2.9 million. Factoring in international markets, however, Munster suggests that total Mac sales probably grew somewhere between 9% and 11% year to year — roughly double the 5% growth the Street is expecting.

The news for iPods was not quite so encouraging.

Munster's analysis of NPD data for the quarter shows iPod sales down 19% year to year. That suggests unit sales between 9 million and 9.5 million, somewhat below the Street consensus of 10 million. With iPods sales growing faster overseas than they are in the United States, Munster expects Apple to report iPod numbers somewhere in between the Street's 10 million consensus and the 9-9.5 million implied by NPD's data.

Munster thinks Apple will confound the naysayers and once again report a strong quarter driven by impressive Mac and iPhone sales. But he has not changed his earnings estimate ($1.37 per share, slightly below the Street's $1.42) or his price target ($235).

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

What's Wall Street expecting this quarter? The 22 analysts we polled are all over the lot

Merck, McDonalds, Microsoft, Boeing, Coca Cola, Dupont and AT&T are among the bellwether companies reporting earnings next week, but when the markets close on Monday, all eyes will be on Apple (AAPL).

Wall Street blows hot and cold on Cupertino. Apple shares have been on fire for most of the year, and after see-sawing for much of the day they rose up sharply in late afternoon trading to close at $189.86, up 0.96%. The stock has rocketed more than 120% since January, outpacing the Dow by nearly 9 to 1 and leaving analysts scrambling to keep up. Nearly all have adjusted their estimates in advance of Monday's report, some rather dramatically (one of them raised his price target from $70 a share to $250 in the space of seven months).

Apple analysts scramble to catch up

With the stock hovering within 10 points of its all-time high ($202 per share, set nearly two years ago), the question for many traders is whether it has much further to go — which is one of the reasons they'll be closely watching Monday's earnings report.

The Street is looking for Apple to earn $1.42 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion, according to Thomson Financial's consensus, although the revenue estimates of the 20 analysts we polled ranged from $8.37 billion to $9.72. That's a difference of $1.35 billion — enough to fund a small land war — but this time the most optimistic estimates come from big Wall Street firms, not the unaffiliated analysts who have tended in the past to be the most bullish on Apple.  (See chart below the fold.)

The biggest discrepancy in the chart below is the column showing estimated iPhone unit sales. Since June, when Apple introduced the iPhone 3GS and lowered the iPhone 3G's price to $99, the company hasn't been able to make the things fast enough to meet demand.

Whether that is good news or bad remains to be seen. The bulls are looking for Apple to report sales of 7.5 million to 8.02 million iPhones — numbers that would both boost its revenue and sweeten its gross margins. The bears are expecting unit sales in the range of 5.2 million to 6.0 million. If the numbers are that low, you can expect the stock to get clobbered in after-hours trading.

Will iPhone sales disappoint investors?

Another number to watch Monday is Apple's so-called non-GAAP revenue, especially now that the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) rules have been rewritten to allow the company to book revenue from iPhone sales as it comes in, not spread out over two years. Not every analyst publishes non-GAAP revenue numbers, but those that do are looking for them to come in somewhere between $10.4 billion and $11.65 billion. Anything more than $11 billion — even though that's less than the "truly stunning" $11.68 billion Steve Jobs reported last year when deferred revenue for the original $599 iPhones were still pouring in  — would probably be considered a pretty strong showing.

Apple's gap is closing quickly

Finally, there's Apple's guidance to consider, which as usual is anybody's guess. Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, for one, is expecting Apple's predictions for the December quarter to be typically conservative. He's looking for them call  for earnings-per-share around $1.68 (12% below the Street's $1.91 consensus) on revenues of  $10.98 billion (4% below the Street's $11.44 billion).

A guide to Apple's guidance

After falling nearly two points in early morning trading, Apple bounced back at $189.86, up 1.81 points (0.96%). The company's shares had closed Friday at $188.05, down 2.51 points (1.32%), and fell another 0.45% in after-hours trading. Traders may have been spooked by one analyst's report — given prominent play on cable TV Friday night — that production "hiccups" could have cut into iPhone sales last quarter. (See here.)

Below: The published estimates of 19 professional analysts — updated to include several reports issued Monday morning — and three closely-watched independents. To find out who was closest to the mark, check in here after the markets close.

Revenue in billions; earnings in dollars/share; unit sales in millions; Gross margin in %. Source: Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Apple is scheduled to report its earnings for fiscal Q4 and 2009 after the markets close Monday, Oct. 19. A conference call with analysts is scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. Eastern (2 p.m. Pacific) and will probably last about an hour. Tune in here for our analysis.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]