Ma Bell's wireless network is still standing after Friday's grassroots iPhone attack

The appointed hour — Friday, from 12 noon to 1 p.m. PST — came and went and AT&T's (T) 3G cellular network had not been brought to its knees, despite the best efforts of thousands of Apple (AAPL) iPhone users.

"As far as I can tell, there’s been no impact at all," wrote Dan Lyons in The Secret Diary of Steve Jobs at 12:19 p.m. "My iPhone is working just the same as ever. "

It was Lyons, writing as Fake Steve Jobs, who on Monday had encouraged iPhone owners to overwhelm AT&T's network by turning on a data-intensive app and running it for an hour. Operation Chokehold, as he dubbed it, was intended as a protest against AT&T's threatened imposition of data usage fees.

By Wednesday, after the FCC's chief of homeland security issued a stern warning, Lyons began to have second thoughts. But by then the protest had taken on a life of its own. See here.

Although there were scattered reports of slowdowns Friday on the Operation Chokehold Facebook page, AT&T's 3G network seemed to be holding up just fine.

"We don't know of any instances in which AT&T's service was degraded or brought offline," says John Rust, one of the "Three Musketeers" who managed Operation Chokehold's official website. "Yet at the same time, we consider the operation to be successful: we proved to AT&T that we believe that 'unlimited' should be 'unlimited,' and that it's not their job to redefine it."

In Brooklyn, where we were monitoring the network's performance, upload and download speeds actually increased during the first quarter hour. See the chart below.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

See also:

• Can the kids bring AT&T to its knees?

By 35% a month lately, according to the ad requests pouring into AdMob's network

Click to enlarge. Other includes HTC Desire, Samsung Moment, Samsung Galaxy and HTC Tatoo. Source: AdMob.

"Traffic from Android devices has increased dramatically over the last year," according to a report issued Friday morning by AdMob, the world's largest purveyor of mobile ads.

In November alone, Android devices accounted for 27% of the hits on AdMob's U.S. ad network, up from 20% in October — a 35% increase in one month.

Of course, AdMob is counting ad requests, not handset sales, so its numbers cannot be used to measure market share in the traditional sense. But its reports do provide a monthly snapshot of where the rapidly expanding smartphone market is headed. The growth in Android traffic — fueled by the release of new Android-powered devices — is one of the featured themes of AdMob's November report.

Among its Android-related findings:

• Six months ago a single Android device, the HTC Dream (G1), generated 92% of Android traffic, while in November 2009 the G1 accounted for only 37% of requests.
• The Motorola Droid, HTC Magic and HTC Hero generated 22%, 21% and 9% of Android requests worldwide in November 2009, respectively.
• In November, 88% of Android traffic in the AdMob network was generated in the U.S. The U.K. was with second largest market with 4% of requests.
• In the U.S., the Motorola (MOT) Droid quickly became the No. 2 Android handset, thanks in part to heavy marketing by Verizon (VZ). In the U.K., the HTC Dream, HTC Magic, and HTC Hero make up 92% of Android requests.

AdMob was acquired by Google (GOOG) in November for $750 million shortly after Apple (AAPL) had reportedly expressed interest in buying its network. You can download its November report as a pdf from metrics.admob.com.

See also:

• Where in the world are Apple's 78 million handsets?
• The smartphone wars, one year later

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Mostly in the U.S., but Japan, France, Australia and China are coming on fast, says AdMob

Click to enlarge. Source: AdMob

By the end of December, according to Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, Apple's (AAPL) will have sold 78 million iPhones and iPod touches worldwide.

So where, exactly, are those devices?

A report issued Friday by AdMob, the world's leading supplier of mobile ads, tries to map the location of Apple's handsets country by country based on the number of users who requested at least one of its ads in November — a number that increased 150% in 2009.

Among the highlights of its findings:

• In November, 50% of unique Apple visitors were located in the United States. The next four biggest markets were the U.K., France, Canada and Germany.
• In total, 23 countries had more than 100,000 unique Apple visitors.
• 50% of unique Apple users were located outside of the US, up from 39% in January 2009.
• The iPhone accounted for 71% and the iPod touch 29% of the total unique Apple users in November. In raw numbers: 18.0 million iPhones; 7.3 million iPod touches; 25.2 million total.
• The fastest growing countries between January 2009 and November 2009 were Japan, France, Australia and China. See the bar graph below.

Source: AdMob

AdMob describes itself as the world's largest mobile advertising platform, serving banner and text link ads on 15,000 mobile Web sites and iPhone and Android applications. Its reports are based on  handset and operator data on nearly 138 billion impressions. They do not, however, measure mobile markets in the traditional sense of number of handsets sold. And they have a bias toward devices like the iPhone and Droid that visit ad-supported websites and also run ad-supported apps.

You can download their November report as a pdf from metrics.admob.com.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Apple's U.S. smartphone installed base has surpassed Microsoft's for the first time

Click to enlarge. Source: comScore

Given that the iPhone has been outselling Windows Mobile devices in the U.S. for nearly two years, it comes as something of a surprise that Apple (AAPL) has only now caught up to Microsoft (MSFT) in terms of active smartphone users.

But that's what the latest data from comScore show. The bar graph at right, drawn from numbers obtained by FierceDeveloper, shows that the installed base of iPhone users in the U.S. overtook Windows Mobile's sometime between July and October 2009.

Microsoft had a big head start, of course, but its market share has been stagnating lately. Research in Motion (RIMM), by contrast, enjoys both a head start and a growing market share. According to comScore, about 40% of the smartphones still in use in America are BlackBerries, while less than 25% are iPhones.

A copy of comScore's report can be purchased at the compay's site for $4,995.

Below the fold: A full-size version of the chart.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Source: comScore

A smartphone protest begun as blogger's joke catches fire in the high schools of America

Image: Facebook

The most interesting thing about Operation Chokehold — a grassroots denial of service attack against AT&T's (T) data network scheduled for Friday at 12 noon PST (3 p.m. EST) — may be who has signed on to take part.

You can see their shining faces on Facebook's official Operation Chokehold page, which by Friday morning had attracted more than 4,000 fans.

Scroll down the members list for affiliations and you'll see a few companies, a bunch of colleges and a whole lot of high schools: Carlmont High, Las Lomas High, Casa Grande High, Galileo High, Triton High, Roseburg High, Rancho Buena Vista High, Shadow Mountain High, Henry M. Gunn High, West Allegheny Senior High, Connellsville Area Senior High and so on.

That a satirical call to action has turned into a cellular children's crusade may say more about the sorry state of activism in the U.S. than the true level of consumer rage. But if AT&T's network crashes on Friday, it will be kids with Apple (AAPL) iPhones who have done it.

The whole thing started as a publicity stunt.

Last Friday Dan Lyons, a Newsweek writer better known as the pseudonymous Fake Steve Jobs, posted a blistering 1,900 word rant — framed as a  "not-so-brief chat" with AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson — that may be the best thing he's written since his identity was revealed two years ago. The post was Lyons' response to hints that AT&T might impose "incentives" to encourage iPhone users to stop overtaxing its network, and in the days that followed it was picked up by dozens of bloggers, twitterers and mainstream media outlets.

Encouraged by the attention, Lyons followed up Monday with a second Fake Steve Jobs post, this one built around what he claimed was a memo being circulated among the engineers at Apple:

Subject: Operation Chokehold
On Friday, December 18, at noon Pacific time, we will attempt to overwhelm the AT&T data network and bring it to its knees. The goal is to have every iPhone user (or as many as we can) turn on a data intensive app and run that app for one solid hour. Send the message to AT&T that we are sick of their substandard network and sick of their abusive comments. THe idea is we’ll create a digital flash mob. We’re calling it in Operation Chokehold. Join us and speak truth to power! (link)

The idea was dismissed as a silly stunt when it seemed that only a few hundred people might take up the cause. But when it became clear that thousands had signed on, things got serious.

On Tuesday, an AT&T spokesman told the Cult of Mac's Leander Kahney that "there is nothing amusing about advocating that customers attempt to deliberately degrade service on a network that provides critical communications services for more than 80 million customers."

Network World's John Cox went further, asking Lyons what he planned to tell the parents of toddlers who die on Friday because a call to 911 couldn't get through.

Even the FCC weighed in. ""Threats of this nature are serious," Jamie Barnett, chief of the agency's public safety and homeland security bureau, said in a statement. "To purposely try to disrupt or negatively impact a network with ill-intent is irresponsible and presents a significant public safety concern."

By Wednesday afternoon, Lyons seemed to be getting cold feet. "For the record," he wrote, "this is all just a joke that has spun out of control and gained a life of its own." Now Fake Steve is talking about cutting the protest back from one hour to 15 minutes. Or shutting off iPhones rather than using them to flood the network. Or asking the kids to duct tape their mouths and gather in flash mobs outside AT&T stores.

But judging from the comments on Facebook and elsewhere, it's too late for that. "This is no time to go wobbly, Fake Steve," wrote one poster. Added another: "The momentum this has created is beyond your control, and be prepared to accept the repercussions — good or bad."

UPDATE: Not content with commentary from AT&T and the FCC, Lyons spent Thursday knocking out fake messages of support (or opposition) from Osama Bin Laden, Hugo Chavez, Rachel Uchitel, Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck. See here.

See also:

• Operation Chokehold countdown clock
• Local TV News coverage on CBS-5

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

The investment bank has seen the future and it looks a lot like the iPhone

Click to enlarge. Source: Morgan Stanley

Apple's (AAPL) iPhone was the hero of an hour-long conference-call seminar on The Mobile Internet presented Tuesday by Morgan Stanley.

The report was intended to be a follow-up to Mary Meeker's 1995 "The Internet Report," which became known as "the bible" of the dot-com boom.

Graphics like the one at right charting the rapid growth of the iPhone/iPod touch/iTunes ecosystem — the fastest new-tech ramp up in history, according to Meeker's team of 27 research analysts — dominated the 92-slide PowerPoint stack.

This particular slide shows that the rate of adoption of the iPhone and iPod touch in their first nine quarters on the market outpaced NTT's DoCoMo two-fold, Netscape five-fold and AOL eight-fold.

Based on past performance, according to Morgan Stanley, Apple is in the "pole position" in the race to dominate mobile Internet computing, which is supposed to be for the 2000s what desktop Internet computing was for the 1990s, personal computing for the 1980s, mini computing for the 1970s, and mainframe computing for the 1960s.

"Apple has a two or three-year lead" according to Katy Huberty, thanks to an installed base of 57 million handsets, 100,000 apps and 200 million iTunes subscribers with credit card numbers on file. (She will keep her eye, however, on Samsung, Nokia (NOK) and Google's (GOOG) Android.)

But much of the presentation was spent showing, in slides culled from research over the past two and a half years, that the iPhone is not like previous mobile devices, and its owners not like ordinary cell phone users.

For example, although iPhone and iPod touch owners represent only 17% of the global smartphone installed base, they account for 65% of the world's mobile Web browsing and 50% of its mobile app usage (see chart below).

Source: Morgan Stanley

Another slide, this one a pie chart, shows that the average American cellphone user spends 40 minutes a day on a mobile phone, making calls 70% of that time. The average iPhone user, by contrast, spends 60 minutes on the device but makes calls only 45% of the time. The rest of those 60 minutes are spent texting, e-mailing, listening to music, playing games and surfing the Web.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Finally, we have the Venn diagram below that compares Facebook's 350,000 apps and 137% year-over-year growth with the iPhone's 100,000 apps and 163% growth. The place where Mark Zuckerberg's 430 million users overlap with Steve Jobs' 57 million is the sweet spot of the mobile Internet. It's here, according to Morgan Stanley, where we find the future of computing.

Source: Morgan Stanley

There's lots more where this came from. You can see the 92 slides presented Tuesday at Morgan Stanley's website here. But that's just an appetizer for the two main courses: a 659-slide key themes presentation and the full 424-page Mobile Internet Report.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Sorry, Google. The apps (and by that we mean appetizers) won out.

At long last there is proof of Google’s (GOOG)  long-anticipated smartphone. Late last week, the online advertising giant started handing out an Android-powered phone to employees. While refusing to detail the specs, the official Google mobile blog refers to it as a “mobile lab.”

The Googley vagueness continues on the blog, where it is described as, “A device that combines innovative hardware from a partner with software that runs on Android to experiment with new mobile features and capabilities.”

Of course, the gadget-obsessed immediately ran to the Federal Communications Commission to get those specs, and photos have been popping up all over. So, we now (mostly) know that it is a sleek-looking touch-screen phone made by HTC, powered by a high-end Qualcomm (QCOM) processor and featuring the latest Android 2.1 OS. From the looks of things, this GSM phone could operate on any number of networks abroad, but seems destined at least for T-Mobile in the United States.

With all the Googlers eager to show off their new gizmos, and this, the calendric peak of the holiday party season, it was inevitable that in the Bay Area at least, the two would combine.  Sure enough, a friend attending a holiday party over the weekend in San Francisco with a number of Google folks making merry was presented with the new phone. “Mostly, I wanted to see the photo of the engagement ring that was on it,” she says, requesting anonymity. “It wasn’t an iPhone, and besides, there were pigs-in-a-blanket and these really good mini-cheeseburgers, and I was hungry, so I didn’t pay too much attention. “ So there you have it.

Table stakes: iPhone quality hardware

Discounting for a moment that this occurred in gadget-jaded Silicon Valley (and that the mini-cheeseburgers were really good), it does offer a point worth examining. Great hardware is the minimum starting point in the smartphone market these days, and it doesn’t get anyone’s blood racing by itself. As a piece of hardware, the Google phone, dubbed the Nexus One according to employees, had better be on par with an iPhone. If not, as we have seen time and again with would-be competitors, it will be a non-starter.

Let’s assume Google’s phone is tip-top in the hardware department. What sells smartphones these days has as much to do with the software running the phone and the applications available as the hardware. Again, Apple (AAPL) leads the pack by a wide margin with its mobile apps store.

Google’s open-source mobile OS Android has been getting mostly good reviews, especially in its latest incarnation running on Motorola’s (MOT) Droid phone. What Google needs to do, however, is get more Android phones out there to attract more developers and get the critical application mass it needs.

What has everyone most excited at the moment is the (rumored) prospect that Google will sell its Nexus One as an unlocked, carrier-agnostic piece of gear starting in January. Fine, as long as the phone is still relatively cheap. If Google comes out with a $500 unlocked phone, it will fade as quickly as all of Nokia’s similar unlocked and pricey efforts.

But if Google sells its phone contract-free for the same $199 the iPhone sells for (with a two-year AT&T (T) contract) it will have a monster on its hands. How could that happen? Google, rather than a carrier could subsidize the phone, and make up the cost via mobile advertising (it just bought AdMob), or maybe just take a hit to build a market. Google can certainly afford it. Either way, Android gets very huge, very fast, and that is what Google really wants.

Would that upset Google’s roster of current Android customers, including Motorola, Samsung and some of the wireless carriers? Sure it would, but this isn’t about the old-school wireless ecosystem, it’s about the mobile Web and Google’s designs to own it. If Google wants it, it needs to step up. If not? Those pigs-in-a-blanket sure look good.

Their battles on air and in court somehow managed to lift both their reputations

Click to enlarge. Source: You Gov's BrandIndex

In politics, mudslinging tends to sully both the slinger and slimed. But according to a YouGov BrandIndex survey released Monday, the ad wars this fall between Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) had the opposite effect.

As you may recall, Verizon went after AT&T and Apple's (AAPL) iPhone with a series of high-profile "There's a Map for That" ads that cut so close to the bone AT&T asked a federal court in Atlanta to issue a restraining order. (The court declined and the suits were ultimately withdrawn.)

Rather than diminishing the companies in the eyes of consumers, however, the contretemps actually raised awareness of both brands, Verizon somewhat more than AT&T.

On Nov. 2, according to the BrandIndex survey, 37.1% of all adults 18 to 34 had heard something about the Verizon Wireless brand; by Dec. 7, that number was 62.2%. For AT&T the numbers went from 41.2% in early November to 54.5% last week.

Verizon Wireless' awareness passed AT&T's in the last week of November.

BrandIndex says it interviews 5,000 people each weekday from an online panel of more than 1.5 million Americans. Their scores range from -100 to 100 and are calculated by subtracting negative feedback from positive. The margin of error is +/- 2%.

See also:

• Verizon to AT&T: The truth hurts
• Verizon vs. AT&T: There's a map for that

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Check out some of our favorite picks that will let you keep track of your spending and eating — and help you make a drink or two.

Monitor holiday consumption with the Calorie Tracker app. Image: Livestrong.com.

The holiday season can be stressful: the shopping, the spending, even the parties can be incredibly stressful.

Luckily, all you Apple (AAPL) iPhone users have more than 100,000 apps to help your holiday season go a little smoother. Yes, there's the obvious "Better Christmas List" app or the “Asking Santa” app, but maybe before it gets too close to the yuletide cheer, you should make a trip to the iTunes app store. That'd be one way to make the trip to your in-laws a little more bearable.  All in all, a happy app holiday!

Make your shopping experience easier — and more affordable

Everyone's trying to find the best deals this time of year. And besides tackling someone on Black Friday or being glued to your laptop on Cyber Monday, you can look for apps that can help your shopping. Try Red Laser, priced at $1.99. All you do is take a picture of a product barcode, and it'll recognize the product and search for prices on Google (GOOG) and TheFind. So instead of buying something marked-up, you can see where you can get the item for the cheapest.

Stop using a checkbook and start using an app

There are more than enough apps to help you keep track of your finances. Mint.com, for instance, has caused a small revolution in the iPhone and digital community, showing you how much you're spending and how much you’re actually making. Mint.com is like having a digital version of your loving, but overbearing, scolding mother living in your inbox and iPhone. But for the holidays, try BudgetCare for $1.99. It's especially tailored for individual transactions. So this way if you just want to track your holiday expenses, it's a bit easier to sort through.

I'll be home for Christmas…on Wednesday at 5:32 p.m.

Many of us will be traveling for the holidays, and let's face it, we might enjoy the in-flight movie, but what we all care about is our destination — and whether we'll be home in time to make the holiday festivities. So rather than being preoccupied, you can stay occupied by checking your flight status in real-time with FlightTrack. For $4.99, you can check whether you'll have any delays, if they've switched gate numbers or if you just want to see which other planes are flying in the air with you.

Eggnog, anyone?

So you're finally home and you're in charge of drinks. No fear! Here comes (the free) Mixologist: Drink Recipes to the rescue! You've got almost 8,000 recipes at your disposal. Pick the liquor, pick the spritzer and shake it up–your iPhone, that is. And then you can pick up the real shaker and be the life of the party! This is one holiday app that keeps on giving.

Watch those calories!

Now that the party has really gotten started, it's easy to get stuck eating hundreds of obligatory holiday feasts. That really doesn't do much for your diet though — nor your pant size. So maybe it's best not to completely pig out and use an app that'll give you a handle on your eating. With livestrong.com's $2.99 Calorie Tracker app, you can search a food item, add it to your database and then you can search for the appropriate workout to burn those calories you just added to your system. Might as well get a head start on that New Year's resolution.

Let's make some Christmas cards

And no holiday would be complete unless you took some crazy photos and made them your Christmas card for next year. But why wait until next year, when you can dress them up and send them now? For $2.99, with the Grinch edition of the Dr. Seuss Camera, you can take a picture of your holiday antics, lay some Grinch illustrations on top of the faces you and your nephew are making and then send those greetings out to your loved ones right away. Who said the Grinch ruined Christmas?

The long-rumored gPhone has surfaced, but no one can agree on what it means

The purported Google phone. Photo: Cory O'Brien

Google (GOOG) announced on its mobile blog Saturday what dozens of staffers had already leaked: the company has given employees around the world free handsets running its Android mobile operating system. The idea, according to the official report, is to have Google's own people test various advanced features and offer feedback to the company's designers — a process known in the business as "dogfooding" (as in "eating your own dogfood").

Not surprisingly, given Google's financial clout and the power it wields over the Internet, the experiment has launched a storm of speculation about what it means. As we sort through the theories, we count at least nine ways of looking at the Google phone:

1. Google is in the process of designing an unlocked cellphone that it plans to sell directly to the public online — bypassing the mobile carriers and brick-and-mortar retailers — sometime next year. This is the line TechCrunch took first and the Wall Street Journal has picked up, citing unnamed sources "familiar with the matter."  This theory underlies much of the theorizing that follows.
2. Google has watched with dismay as smartphone makers tweak the Android OS to suit their needs, fragmenting the software ecosystem and scaring off developers. "By putting its stake in the ground," writes GigaOm's Om Malik, "the company is hoping that it doesn’t make the mistake that Microsoft made by dragging its feet in releasing Zune and ceding the market to Apple’s iPod."
3. Apple (AAPL) has finally met its match in a competitor that has the resources, the partners and the staying power to challenge the iPhone. This, finally, is the real iPhone killer.
4. The iPhone, despite the failure of AT&T's (T) network to keep up with bandwidth demands in high-profile urban markets, continues to sell like crazy. Google realizes it has to move fast or the game will be lost.
5. A Google phone sold without a subsidy from the mobile carriers would be prohibitively expensive — at least $400, and probably more like $500 or $600, according to Ian Betteridge's back of the envelope calculations. (See his comments here.) A carrier like T-Mobile (DT) could sell the same phone for a fraction of the price.
6. Google could subsidize the phone out of its own pocket, perhaps giving it away for free to drive more traffic to its revenue-producing ads — a strategy that's worked for nearly every other project in Google Labs.
7. If Google were to try to sell a smartphone below cost, the company would be facing a 21st century version of the Microsoft (MSFT) antitrust trials, and the start of a long, slow decline.
8. Google is about to alienate the very hardware manufacturers it's counting on to carry the Android flag. Why would customers buy a Motorola (MOT) Droid, for example, when they could get the official Android smartphone from Google?
9. Google has no intention of making its own hardware. The so-called Google phone is actually  the HTC Passion (AKA Bravo), an Android 2.1 smartphone set for U.S. release by T-Mobile in January. The "dogfooding" exercise is exactly what Google said it was — a way to test a bunch of advanced Android features on a friendly user base before they go public.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]