With the launch of the Flip video camera in May 2007, the camcorder market has never been the same. Flip brought video creation and sharing to the masses, which meant even more footage of cats riding skateboards. (We can't thank them enough for that.)

Consumers embraced the convenience, simplicity, portability, and affordability of Flip's "point and shoot" video camera. It has few buttons, records video on an internal chip, and uploads footage to a computer through a USB key that "flips" out of the camera. Software loaded on the device transfers clips seamlessly to the Web. Models start at $150.

Soon the device was grabbing market share from Sony (SNE) and JVC — more than two million of the cameras have been sold — and earlier this year networking giant Cisco (CSCO) snapped up Flip maker Pure Digital for $590 million.

But there's a new rival on the scene: Apple iPhone 3GS, introduced in early June, boasts a video capture function. And some technophiles are asking if Flip's days as the No. 1 pocket video recorder are numbered.

There's no question the iPhone's video function is one of the coolest new features on the phone. It absolutely competes with the Flip, and in some ways is actually superior.

Unlike Flip, you can edit clips right on the iPhone by moving the start and stop points. You can also share video immediately via wireless email on the iPhone 3GS. Flip can't do that. And while Flip does have a leg up with its high definition models, the standard definition iPhone is wired for HD. All it needs is a software upgrade (Apple (AAPL) had to leave something for the next version of the iPhone).

The iPhone also has a sleeker design and a larger screen than Flip, and performs a wide range of functions. The price tag reflects that, ranging from $199 to $299 for the phone plus a two-year contract with AT&T (T) easily coming in at $70 a month.  At $230, the MinoHD is the Flip's most expensive model.

The iPhone can do almost everything the Flip can, and in some cases, even more. In spite of this, tech and camcorder industry analysts don't believe it's a threat. Ironically, they say that many consumers are attracted to the Flip precisely because it lacks the iPhone's panoply of functions and add-ons.

"Much of the strength of the Flip comes from its simplicity and dedicated purpose," explains Ross Rubin of market researcher NPD group. While Rubin acknowledges the advantages the iPhone's video capture has over Flip, he argues that "these may not be as important or could be confusing to many Flip users that eschew sophistication in their devices."

Despite the seeming trend of convergence toward a single multipurpose device, analysts claim many consumers still prefer electronics dedicated to one task. "The notion of the hybrid cannibal device always pops up," says Chris Chute of research firm IDC. "The consumer doesn't say to themselves, 'I'm going to buy one device that does everything okay.'"

Indeed, the entrance of camera phones into the market five years ago sparked speculation that digital cameras would disappear because everyone would be printing photos from their phones. That didn't happen. And the Flip has held up in a market where digital cameras and other devices capture video, Rubin notes. "The iPhone is simply among the latest devices to offer video recording among its features."

The iPhone doesn't have all the edge either. To start, Flip is accessible through many more channels than the iPhone 3GS. Flip's MinoHD currently holds the No. 10 spot on Amazon's list of electronics bestsellers. You can't even buy the iPhone 3GS on Amazon.

As for the design, while the Flip might not be as sleek as the iPhone, it's nearly the same size and the Mino model is lighter in weight. The Flip is also more affordable and doesn't require a contract commitment, making it an easier sell to those outside the "early adopter" set.

To those for whom the ability to share video immediately is a real sticking point, the analysts recommend patience. IDC's Chute predicts that Flip will introduce wireless sharing by the Consumer Electronics Show next January. In the meantime, sharing on Flip is still relatively convenient, especially with its user-friendly software.

The analysts seem certain that the new iPhone won't challenge Flip's market position for the time being, but that doesn't mean the horizon is clear. Creative Strategies analyst Ben Bajarin thinks that video capture in phones could become a problem down the line. "How do they compete if this trend of higher resolution video capture and more shows up in more and more smartphones?"

Meanwhile both Rubin and Chute suggest that a video capture enabled iPod Touch or Nano could be a more dangerous to Flip than the iPhone. "They're adding functionality to a media player, and the devices are sold at similar places," explains Chute.

Flip's direct competitors pose the greatest risk, analysts say. Sony, Sanyo, Creative and Kodak have all launched products in the "Point and Shoot Flash" camcorder category. As Flip looks to expand its presence globally, it will face intense pressure from these contenders, many of whom already have brand equity in international markets.

The still photos of the iPhone 3GS debut in Singapore Friday (see here) don't quite do justice to the magnitude of the event.

To get a better feel for what it was like to be there that night, check out the video pasted below. It was shot by customer No. 10 — a student named Satya — with his new phone as he walked back through lines that seem to go on forever.

SingTel, Apple's (AAPL) local carrier, estimated that 1,500 to 2,000 people would turn out that night. Satya, who shot his video two hours before closing time, put the number at closer to 3,000.

Thanks to reader Don from Palo Alto for the tip.

See also:

• Thousands crowd iPhone launch in Singapore

Steve Jobs is not the only one who knows a thing or two about event marketing. Check out Damian Koh's photos of the launch of the new iPhone 3GS in Singapore Friday night.

By 8 p.m., according to SingTel, Apple's (AAPL) exclusive local carrier, between 1,500 and 2,000 eager customers had gathered outside company headquarters for the festivities, with many more expected over next two days.

"On average," executive vice president Yuen Kuan Moon told Channel NewsAsia, "a customer during the peak period will queue between anywhere for three to four hours."

Some people waited a lot longer than that. Jackson Low, 29, a medical test subject recruiter, was second in line for the iPhone 3G last year. Just to be sure, he arrived 11 hours early this year and was both first in line and first to walk out of SingTel headquarters with a new iPhone 3GS. (See photo, left.)

To help build excitement — and swell the crowd — SingTel staged fireworks and a confetti drop worthy of a Republican National Convention. Waiting customers were ushered through three "experience zones" to keep them entertained.

But the biggest draw — besides the iPhone itself — may have been the presence of television actress Felicia Chin (right) one of Singapore's top 10 most popular "female artistes" for three years, according to Star Awards, and winner of two of 2008's top 8 most likeable female characters (Lin Fei in The Golden Path and Tao Haitong in Love Blossoms).

Koh caught Chin in a quiet moment with a new iPhone 3GS for which we suspect she didn't have to wait in line. Or, for that matter, pay for.

Thanks to iPhone Asia's Dan Butterfield for the tip.

Photos courtesy of Damian Koh.

UPDATE: It turns out the photos don't quite do justice to the magnitude of the event. For a video shot by one of the first customers in line, see 3GS insanity in Singapore.

There were only four customers in the queue to buy an iPhone 3GS when I showed up at Apple's (AAPL) flagship Fifth Avenue store in Manhattan Tuesday afternoon for what I'd been told would be the lunch-hour crush.

This is where I'd hoped to see iPhone demand collide with iPhone supply. I saw nothing of the sort.

Although Apple's availability widget shows red "sold out" lights for selected models in every state where Apple has retail outlets (see here), there seemed to be plenty of product on hand today.

Less than three weeks after the launch of the iPhone 3GS, the lines that once snaked in front of the big glass cube had dwindled to the point where the customers that showed up could fit comfortably between a few retractable belt posts within the store itself.

Justin, one of the teal-shirted Apple employees manning the stanchions Tuesday, said that the big lines had disappeared within a week or so and that what crowds there were now didn't start to gather until later in the day — around 4 p.m. As I watched for a half-hour, the queue grew until it held a dozen people. At that point it seemed to reach a steady state, with customers leaving with their new iPhones in hand at roughly the same rate as new ones joined the line.

The rest of the store, meanwhile, was hopping with its usual mix of office workers, tourists, foreign visitors flush with Euros, parents with kids in tow, and out-of-school students hunched over the laptops on display. I estimated the crowd at between 200 and 300.

There were no lines in front of the nearest Sprint (S) store, 10 blocks down Fifth Ave, and no crowd inside, either. It’s not a fair comparison because there are thousands of Sprint outlets and only 240 Apple Stores, but this Sprint store was very quiet. Of the two staff on duty, one was dealing with the sole customer, and the other was reading a book. She looked up to confirm that yes, they did have the Palm (PALM) Pre in stock.

See, by contrast:

• Two weeks later, New Yorkers wait 4 1/2 hours for an iPhone 3G

[NOTE: An earlier version of this story confused Sprint with T-Mobile. Apologies to anyone who was mystified by the switch.]

AT&T's (T) widely leaked "best-ever sales day" memo ticking off the records set on June 19, 2009 — the day it began selling the iPhone 3GS — is packed with superlatives but notably lacking in numbers. (See memo below.)

Unlike Apple (AAPL), which reports on a quarterly basis how many iPhones it has shipped, AT&T keeps its unit sales figures close to its chest.

The new memo trumpets the fact that iPhone sales on June 19 "exceeded sales recorded on 2008's iPhone launch day," without saying how many phones it sold on either day.

But by extrapolating from previous quarters and reading between the lines, we can make some rough estimates. Here are the data points as we understand them:

• June 29 and 30: Apple launches first iPhone, and AT&T and Apple together sell 270,000 units in two days.  In its Q2 earnings call the next month, AT&T CFO Rick Lindner says his company activated 146,000 iPhones in the last day and a half of the quarter.
• Oct. 2007: Apple announces that it has sold a total 1.39 million iPhones; AT&T says it has activated 1.1 million of them.
• Jan. 2008: Apple says it has sold 4 million iPhones; AT&T says it has activated about 2 million (sparking much hand-wringing about the "missing" 2 million iPhones)
• July 11, 2008: Apple sells more than 1 million iPhone 3Gs in 21 countries over the space of three days. AT&T later says its stores sold nearly twice as many iPhones that weekend as they did the weekend of the first iPhone launch. Even if AT&T's sales equaled Apple's, that can't be more than 270,000.
• Oct. 2008: Apple announces that it sold 6.9 million iPhones in its September quarter. AT&T says it activated 2.4 million of them, about 35%. (Overseas sales and unlocked iPhones presumably making up most of the difference.)
• Jan. 2009: AT&T says it activated more than 4 million iPhone 3Gs in the previous six months. In that period, Apple had sold 11.25 million iPhones. Again, AT&T's activations represent about 35% of the total.
• June 2009: Apple launches the 3GS and again sells more than 1 million iPhones in the space of three days, but this time in only 8 countries, not 21.
• July 2: AT&T's memo says it sold more iPhones over the June 19 weekend than it did over the July 11, 2008 weekend. That makes sense, given that the U.S. (and thus AT&T) share of Apple's sales was larger this year.

Assuming the 35% ratio holds up, it's not unlikely that AT&T will eventually activate about 350,000 of the new iPhones sold the weekend of June 19 — many of them Apple Stores — and that actually unit sales at AT&T outlets that weekend could easily exceed 300,000.

AT&T's public relations department announced that it sold "hundreds of thousands" through its pre-order process prior to launch, and would say no more.

Photo courtesy of AppleInsider.

Below the fold: The iPhone portion of the AT&T memo, as leaked to MacDailyNews.

"iLaunch day 2009 was one for the record books, as AT∓T customers scrambled to get their hands on the fastest, most powerful iPhone yet.

Here's a look at some of the milestones we achieved:

• Best-ever sales day in our retail stores
• Second-largest traffic day in our retail stores
• Most transactions processed via our IT systems in a single day
• Most upgrade eligibility checks in a single day
• Largest order day in att.com history
• Largest features sales day in att.com history

On this year's launch day, iPhone sales exceeded sales recorded on 2008's iPhone launch day, Black Friday 2008 and Dec. 26, 2008 — all heavy-volume sales days. In fact, this year we surpassed 2008's launch day sales at about noon Central time, and sustained our previous peak hour record, also set in 2008, for 11 straight hours." (link)

Here's an interesting measure of how effectively Apple (AAPL) can whip the tech world into a frenzy — even without Steve Jobs there to stir things up.

According to a report issued Monday by Nielsen Online, "anticipatory buzz" in May drew more than 55.7 million unique visitors to Apple's website — more than double that of Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and 25 times the site for Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox.

The buzz got even louder in June with the unveiling of the iPhone 3GS. At one point between June 8 and June 9, nearly 0.6% of the nearly 100 million blogs, groups, boards, social networks and other consumer generated media that Nielsen tracks were talking about the new device. According to the report:

"the new iPhone 3G S sent blog mentions up 1,226 percent week-over-week on June 8, the day of the announcement. After the initial announcement, buzz dipped but again picked up after the phone became available to consumers on June 19, with blog mentions more than doubling compared to the week prior."

You can actually see Apple's buzz machine in action in the accompanying "BlogPulse" fever chart:

Nielsen Online is a division of the research company that has been measuring — and indirectly shaping — media content since it began tracking radio audiences in the 1930s and TV shares in the 1950s.

In the promotional material on its website, Nielsen offers the schematic drawing at right to suggest how its "BuzzMetrics" data mining service extracts nuggets of intelligence by harvesting raw data from sites like this one, cleaning it up, and giving it a good polishing with its relevance and analytics algorithms.

See also:

• Live from Apple WWDC 2009
• Watch Apple's WWDC 2009 keynote
• Lines form in Tokyo and New York
• Live from the iPhone 3GS launch
• Steve Jobs: Apple sold over 1 million new iPhones

The iPhone availability widget is back — new and improved — and it's showing spot shortages of selected iPhones at Apple (AAPL) stores across the United States.

The availability tool, which appears on Apple's website in times of scarcity, was last seen in the summer of 2008, when demand for the iPhone 3G was heavy and supplies short.

When it reappeared on Friday, only 29 of Apple's 257 stores were displaying shortages of any iPhones, according to IFOAppleStore, a website that keeps close tabs of Apple's retail business.

By Sunday morning, however, there were red "sold out" lights for selected 3GS models in all but six states.

Kentucky's only store, in Louisville, was completely out of stock.

This year's model of the widget is considerably more accurate than the original. Last year, availability numbers were updated at the end of each business day. This year, according to IFOAppleStore, the page is linked directly to Apple's internal point-of-sale computers, allowing hourly updates for each store.

The shortages are all over the lot, but Apple seems to be having a particularly hard time meeting demand for the entry-level white iPhone 3GS. In Texas, the 16GB model is sold out in all but three of the state's 15 Apple Stores. It's not clear whether demand for that model is unusually high or if Apple just isn't making enough of them.

To check availability in the Apple Store nearest you, click here.

AT&T (T) has had 3GS supply problems from Day 1, but the widget doesn't cover their stores.

According to Apple, the older 8GB iPhone 3G is available in all its stores.

See also:

• iPhone 3G: Sold out in 21 states
• Where did all the iPhones go?

Those 1 million iPhone GSs sold last weekend represent a "remarkable achievement," writes RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky in a note to clients issued early Tuesday, especially considering the new iPhone's relatively narrow international distribution (8 countries vs. 21 last year).

But according to Abramsky, it's the old iPhone 3G — newly priced at $99 — not the new 3GS, that will drive global sales this fiscal year.

"While early buyers appeared to favor the iPhone S," he writes, "the $99 iPhone is expected to drive 30-40% momentum improvement, in countries like UK, Germany, France, and other parts of Europe and Asia where phones are more highly subsidized (on contract) and prepaid is popular (e.g. ~60% prepay in UK, ~90% in emerging markets like India)."

Abramsky expects Apple to sell 20 million iPhones in fiscal 2009, 64.5% of them the older 3G models. By his estimates the new 3GS won't dominate sales until fiscal 2010, when he expects Apple to sell 30 million iPhones, roughly 60% of them 3GSs. See chart and spreadsheet below.

On Monday, Apple announced that it sold 1 million iPhones 3GSs in three days of sales. The company has not released the number of iPhones 3Gs sold since that device's price was lowered to $99 from $199 on June 8.

He's back.

According to CNBC's Jim Goldman, at least two Apple (AAPL) employees have told him they saw Steve Jobs at the company's Cupertino, Calif., campus on Monday.

Jobs took a medical leave in January to deal with what he initially described as a hormonal imbalance, but which was apparently serious enough to require a liver transplant.

For nearly six months, Apple spokespeople would say only that they looked forward to their chief executive returning to Apple before the end of June.

He seems to have made it back to One Infinite Loop with more than eight days to spare.

Jobs was quoted early Monday in a press release announcing the sale of more than 1 million iPhone 3GSs. It was his first public statement since Jan. 21.

That press release also signaled a typographical change in the name of the new iPhone — from 3G S to 3GS — a small but welcome improvement in which some Apple watchers thought they saw the master micromanager's hand.

It's not clear yet whether Jobs' appearance Monday was a one-time thing or if he is planning to come back to work full time.

Apple has not yet returned a request for comment or confirmation.

UPDATE: USA Today reports that Jobs has been in contact with Apple employees in the past few weeks via e-mail and Reuters says one of its reporters spotted Jobs leaving the campus Monday:

"[He was] dressed in his trademark black turtleneck and jeans. He walked out chatting with another person before climbing into a black car that then drove off."