Google Trends

The world according to Google?


Google does "the wisdom of crowds."

Google trends offers a near real-time view of life concerns. Image: Google

Google trends offers a near real-time view of life concerns. Image: Google

If you think about the millions of searches conducted daily using Google, (GOOG) there is reason to believe you ought to be able to divine patterns or trends from the activity. If everyone is searching for a particular song for example, you might expect that artist to climb the charts. If searches are fast and furious for a digital camera, sales ought to correspondingly increase.

But can examining a broader swath of Google searches related to specific industries inform where those sectors, and the broader economy is headed? The propeller-heads at Google think it can.

Tucked away inside Google Finance is the newly-launched, “Google Domestic Trends”.  While it sounds like it might offer the latest in recipes for meatloaf or techniques for pressing a shirt collar, what it does is track search traffic across 23 specific sectors of the economy ranging from auto buyers, to jobs and the retail trade. More

Tracking the iPhone's bubble of hype


Google trends iPhone snapshot (2)Think of the jagged light blue line in the fever chart at right as the bubble of hype that keeps Apple's (AAPL) iPhone floating above of its competitors.

What you're looking at is a snapshot of a Google Trends chart comparing the number of times the word  "iPhone" appears in a Google search request with the words "Palm" (PALM), Research in Motion's (RIMM) "BlackBerry," Microsoft's (MSFT) "Windows Mobile" and Google's (GOOG) "Android."

The full chart — going back to 2004 — and the color key are pasted below the fold. Or you can click here to recreate the chart on your Web browser.

Google Trends is a powerful tool. It has been used, most famously, to monitor influenza outbreaks by tracking flu-related Google searches — a epidemiological early warning sign that turns out to be more prescient, by two weeks, than the U.S. Centers for Disease Control's surveys of 1,500 hospitals. (Google explains its methodology here, with a link to an article in Nature.)

You can do a Google Trends search on anything. Blogging pioneer Dave Winer ran a series recently comparing "Twitter," "Web 2.0" and "RSS." Twitter won that clap-o-meter competition hands down. Twitter's micro-blogging tool been a hot media topic for more than a year, but Winer's Google Trend search shows that it's been on fire since January.

Let's take a closer look at the iPhone chart, below the fold.

More

How to measure the 3G iPhone buzz


How big is the buzz around Apple's (AAPL) forthcoming iPhone?

Here's one way to gauge it: track keyword searches using Google's cool Trends tool, available here. With this free widget you can enter one or a series of search terms and instantly get a sense of how often they are invoked over time.

For example, a simple request for the graph of searches on Google (GOOG) for "3g iphone" over the past 12 months yields the fever chart below (subscribers click here):

Note the gradual rise in interest as Steve Jobs' June 9 keynote approaches, which is not surprising. What is surprising is the fall-off in "News reference volume" in the bottom graph, a decline that seems genuine and not an artifact of Google's data collection methodology. (There is no similar fall-off in, for example, Barack Obama searches.) This suggests that, although interest continues to grow among the Google-searching public, the tech press may have developed a case of 3G fatigue.

Google Trends also shows you where these searches are coming from. Here's that data for the chart above:

Check out the size of that Hong Kong bar! How is it that an island with less than 1/40 the population of the United States generates three times as many hits? [Correction: Google is showing something more like searches per capita; see here. Still, there seems to be a lot of interest in the 3G iPhone in Hong Kong.] Let's zero in on Hong Kong's 3G iPhone searches:

This shows a sharp rise in searches that began in the middle of May, even before last week's announcement that Hutchison Telecommunications would be bringing the iPhone to Hong Kong and Macau.

Here's one final chart to put things in perspective. It maps 3G iPhone searches against RIM's (RIMM) BlackBerry and simple iPhone searches, without 3G.

Note that despite the recent uptick in searches for 3G iPhone, they don't rise to the level of BlackBerry searches. Moreover, neither can come close to the buzz for the original iPhone, especially when the device was launched last June.

There's lots of data to be gleaned by tracking Google Trends. If you find something particularly noteworthy or surprising, take a snapshot and post it in the comment stream.

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