Celebrating Microsoft's big day with a store opening and three new Get-a-Mac ads

Image: Apple Inc.

In the long running battle between Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), Thursday was a huge win for the boys from Redmond.

Windows 7 launched without a visible hitch and generated more positive reviews than we could count (a Google News search turned up 3,281, but we haven't read them all.)

Meanwhile, in Scottsdale, Ariz., the opening of the first Microsoft retail store delivered the kind of publicity coup money can't buy: customers camping out all night and a crowd the next morning estimated at 500.

Which brings us to our videos. The first shows Microsoft doing its best imitation of an Apple Store opening, complete with employees in multi-colored T-shirts hollering, clapping and giving high-fives.

The other three are Apple's response to all the hoopla: three snarky Get-a-Mac ads trying to turn the event into an opportunity to grab a few more points of market share.

Let's go to the videotape.

From Scottsdale:

From the Yankees-Angels game and NBC's Must-See TV:

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Windows Mobile. Logo: Microsoft

At the end of a long report on the Apple Stores — and the corner he believes they have turned — Needham analyst Charles Wolf turned his attention this week to Microsoft (MSFT) and its plans to launch a fleet of company-branded stores of its own, complete with wall-sized digital screens, spaces for free public events and "Guru" bars to deal with customers’ software complaints.

Let's hope Steve Ballmer isn't on Needham's mailing list, because Wolf's two-page description of Microsoft's efforts and its products may be most dismissive ever produced by a Wall Street analyst. He even goes so far as to evoke the old lipstick joke that got Barack Obama in so much trouble with Sarah Palin during the primaries.

"Microsoft has always touted itself as an innovator," Wolf begins in a section entitled The Sincerest Form of Flattery. "But the company’s true genius has stemmed from its ability to copy the ideas of others."

And the company it's most fond of copying, he says, is Apple (AAPL).

"Introduced in 1990, Windows was a rip-off of Apple’s Macintosh operating system. Microsoft introduced the Zune MP3 player in 2005, a rip-off of the iPod Classic. However, the Zune, another instance of a failed copy attempt, has never been able to gain more than a few percentage points of market share compared to the iPod’s 70%-plus market share. Meanwhile, Apple has moved on to the iPhone and iPod Touch.

"Now Microsoft plans to copy the Apple Stores. In our opinion, Microsoft faces major challenges in this regard. It’s easy to copy the floor plan of an Apple Store as well as its fixtures. Leaked slides indicate Microsoft plans to do exactly this …

"But Microsoft will not find it easy to hire a staff that’s as passionate about the products its sells as the staffs in the Apple Stores. Indeed, given Microsoft’s reputation, it may be nearly impossible."

Apple hired Ron Johnson from Target (TGT) to design its stores under the critical eye of Steve Jobs. Microsoft, Wolf notes, turned to David Porter, a former vice president at Wal-Mart (WMT) — "a company that has consistently eschewed premium products."

"To convince customers that there’s more to Microsoft than the mostly lackluster me-too products it now sells represents the major challenge of its stores," Wolf continues. "The mantra of the campaign, according to leaked documents, is 'Engage, Educate and Excite.' Microsoft plans to focus on the 'user experience.' But typical Windows users are not interested in this. If they are, they most likely have already switched to a Mac."

To support that last point, Wolf offers the following chart. It shows the exponential growth of former Windows customers now using Macs. Wolf estimates that since 2004, 14 million Windows users have switched to a Mac, equal to more than 75% of the size of the Mac's 2004 user base. Of the 150 million customers who visited Apple Stores in fiscal 2008, he estimates that more than half were Windows users.

Yellow triangles = installed base of Windows switchers

According to leaked documents, Microsoft's stores plan to focus on six product families — Office, Bing, Windows, msn, the Zune music player and Xbox.

The company, says Wolf, has its work cut out for it in a few of those categories.

"Windows Mobile in its current incarnation," he writes, "is clearly the least user-friendly mobile operating system on the market. How does Microsoft put lipstick on this product? What Microsoft actually needs is a new mobile operating system that can compete with the iPhone OS, Android and BlackBerry. The same type of comments applies to the Zune. It’s a so-what product that’s now two generations behind the iPod."

"In our opinion," Wolf concludes, "Microsoft’s venture into retail is conceptually equivalent to an oxymoron."

And then he closes by quoting John Dvorak: “Now comes the latest fiasco: Microsoft wants to open retail stores, all of them next to or near an Apple store.”

See also:

• Apple: Another opening, another show
• Apple Stores: The big chill
• Apple's Munich opening is mobbed — in fullscreen panorama

Apple's (AAPL) 258 retail stores may be drawing fewer visitors and bringing in less revenue than they did before the economic downturn (see stats below the fold), but they can still make a splash.

Witness the grand opening video — shot by No. 2 in line — of the company's 21st U.K. Apple Store in Brighton on Saturday, complete with the usual long snaking queue, 1,000 free T-shirts and over-the-top high-fiving Apple employees.

Below: the curious economics of Apple's retail stores.

The purpose and function of the Apple Store has been underscored in recent weeks by leaks of Microsoft's (MSFT) plans to deploy its own chain of retail outlets — some of which will be located near Apple's and will reportedly have the same look and feel, with bright open layouts, wall-sized digital screens, spaces for free public events and Guru Bars to deal with customers' software complaints. (See here.)

As Microsoft seems to now understand, the real purpose of the Apple's retail outlets is not to move product — although they generated a total of $1.5 billion in revenue last quarter.

Rather, the Apple Store is the company's steel-and-glass public face — a high-tech oasis as close as the local mall where one can experience first-hand the attention to design, the hand-holding support and the unrelenting focus on the user's experience that make Apple different from every other computer maker (and are used by company and customers alike to justify Apple's extraordinary profit margins).

So it's not as important as it might seem at first glance that store visits were down for the second quarter in a row or that average revenue per store has sunk back down to 2007 levels. (See the spreadsheet below provided by ifoAppleStore, which covers Apple's retail division like Variety covers Hollywood.)

The fact is, no one leaves an Apple Store feeling quite the same about computers. "It really is like entering another world," wrote Silicon Alley Insider's Henry Blodget earlier this month after what was — believe it or not — his very first visit.

And it doesn't hurt that every store opening still draws a crowd, and that Apple employees still care enough who whoop and holler and act the fool for the entertainment — and often apparent embarrassment — of the people waiting for the doors to finally open.

Thanks to Ian Thomas (twitter: ianthomasuk) for the video, Gizmodo for the Microsoft slide and reader Donna in Mountain View for the tip.

Below: ifoAppleStore's quarterly stats. For more of their charts and graphs, click here.

The new MacBooks are hot — and we're not talking about the lap-scorching temperature of their aluminum unibodies.

Apple's (AAPL) online store is currently showing a 7- to 10-day delay in shipping two models of the MacBook Pro — the high-end ($1,500) 13-inch and the entry-level ($1,700) 15-inch.

According to Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, who tracks product lead times, Apple has never had a 7-10-day delay in the 13-inch MacBook — the one recently re-named the MacBook Pro. The most significant delay he's seen was a record 5-7 days, set more than two years ago.

In addition to the shipping delays, he says, some Apple retail stores are experiencing shortages of selected 13-inch MacBook Pros. Of the 10 stores his team contacted, seven were sold out of at least one 13-inch model.

In a note to clients issued early Tuesday, Munster wrote that this "sign of strong demand for Apple's most popular computer" gives him "increased confidence" in his estimate of 2.2 million Mac unit sales for the fiscal quarter that ended June 27.

Munster also notes that NPD's surveys of U.S. retail outlets showed Mac sales down only 3% in April and May — considerably less than the 10% he had anticipated. When NPD releases its numbers for the June quarter — which will include June sales — Munster expects them to be up 1%.

We'll learn more when Apple reports its third-quarter earnings on July 21. Tune in here for live coverage of the company's earnings call with analysts scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. EDT (2 p.m. PDT).

It's the reverse of Henry Ford's line about the Model T.  Today you can buy any iPhone you want, as long as it's not white.

Apple (AAPL) has been having trouble keeping the entry-level white iPhone in stock since the new 3GS went on sale two and a half weeks ago. But as of Tuesday morning, it has all but disappeared.

The 16 GB model — apparently the most popular — is out of stock in the 31 of the 41 states in which Apple has stores.

It's available in only one of California's 45 Apple Stores, 1 of 9 in Massachusetts, 1 of 7 in Illinois, 1 of 6 in Virginia and 1 of 3 New York City.

It's not clear whether demand for the white 16GB model is unusually high, or if Apple just isn’t making enough of them.

When we last looked at iPhone availability, there were red "sold out" lights for selected models in all but six states (see here). Today at least one model is out of stock in every state.

The only store in Delaware — located in Newark's Christiana Mall — is completely sold out.

According to Apple, there are $99 iPhone 3Gs available in all stores, and the 3GS models are restocked "on most days."

To check availability in the Apple Store nearest you, click here.

AT&T (T) has had 3GS supply problems from Day 1, but Apple's availability widget doesn’t cover their stores.

Below: A snapshot of the situation in Texas as of Tuesday morning.

The iPhone availability widget is back — new and improved — and it's showing spot shortages of selected iPhones at Apple (AAPL) stores across the United States.

The availability tool, which appears on Apple's website in times of scarcity, was last seen in the summer of 2008, when demand for the iPhone 3G was heavy and supplies short.

When it reappeared on Friday, only 29 of Apple's 257 stores were displaying shortages of any iPhones, according to IFOAppleStore, a website that keeps close tabs of Apple's retail business.

By Sunday morning, however, there were red "sold out" lights for selected 3GS models in all but six states.

Kentucky's only store, in Louisville, was completely out of stock.

This year's model of the widget is considerably more accurate than the original. Last year, availability numbers were updated at the end of each business day. This year, according to IFOAppleStore, the page is linked directly to Apple's internal point-of-sale computers, allowing hourly updates for each store.

The shortages are all over the lot, but Apple seems to be having a particularly hard time meeting demand for the entry-level white iPhone 3GS. In Texas, the 16GB model is sold out in all but three of the state's 15 Apple Stores. It's not clear whether demand for that model is unusually high or if Apple just isn't making enough of them.

To check availability in the Apple Store nearest you, click here.

AT&T (T) has had 3GS supply problems from Day 1, but the widget doesn't cover their stores.

According to Apple, the older 8GB iPhone 3G is available in all its stores.

See also:

• iPhone 3G: Sold out in 21 states
• Where did all the iPhones go?

Is there an Apple Store near you? Count yourself lucky, because the days of Apple's (AAPL) aggressive expansion into the branded retail space are over — at least for now.

After opening more than 250 company-owned stores in eight years — an average of nearly 8 per quarter and a total of 46 in 2008 alone — Apple in the last quarter opened just one.

The building slowdown is one of several moves that Apple has made in response to what COO Tim Cook this week called a "horrendous economy."

Although Apple's revenues grew more than 8% year over year in its second fiscal quarter, the average take per store took a 17% hit, falling to $5.9 million from $7.1 million in 2008.

So Apple has been cutting back. According to its latest SEC 10-Q filing, the company has slashed the ranks of its retail employees — from the equivalent of 15,600 full-time workers at the end of its December quarter to 14,000 in March, a net loss of 1,600 jobs.

It has also been closing stores — temporarily, for renovations — at a stepped up pace. IFOAppleStore, the definitive source for news of Apple Store openings, has been reporting round after round of retrofits. The latest cycle calls for stores to be temporarily closed in Tigard, Ore., Woodland, Mich., and White Plains, N.Y.

As its SEC filing notes, Apple-owned stores requires a "substantial investment in fixed assets and related infrastructure, operating lease commitments, personnel, and other operating expenses. … The Company would incur substantial costs if it were to close multiple retail stores."

That doesn't necessarily mean Apple plans to shutter a lot of stores, but it could signal a major reassessment of its retail strategy.

"I believe Apple is at a dangerous crossroads with retail and must make very careful decisions here," writes a retail management expert who posts on Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board under the handle nontekkie. Although he believes Apple is doing the right thing, he also sounds a warning:

"And as sales drop, expenses must be cut. So Apple faces the conundrum of cutting payroll and risking the service part of their reputation because they have sent the sales portion of their product to Best Buy, Wal Mart, AT&T, etc etc. The product gains wider distribution, the customer gains convenience, but Apple risks running stores in the red or losing their service strength.

"Apple retail stores… are not meant to saturate a market, they need to be a destination." (link)

During Wednesday's conference call, CFO Peter Oppenheimer said the company was still on track to open 25 stores in fiscal 2009. But he added that about half of those stores are overseas. If he's counting the 6 U.S. stores that have opened since Sept. 27, 2008, Apple could be planning to open as few as 6 new domestic branches before the end of fiscal 2009.

To get a feel for what it means to Apple's customers for the company to open a new store in their city — and what a loss it would be for them if Apple's expansion were to slow or stop –  check these out:

• Apple’s Munich opening is mobbed — in fullscreen panorama
• ‘Absolutely mental’: Apple launches first Irish store
• Video: High fives and hype at Boston’s new Apple Store

UPDATE: MacWorld's Dan Moran shed some light on the full-time equivalent numbers in an article posted Monday. Among other things, he tracks the number of Apple retail employees going back to Q1 2006. Here's his chart:

Bottom line: Apple may not have laid off 10% of its retail workforce, as Moran initially reported, but it has definitely cut back the hours they work.

It took five tries — and four redesigns –  but Apple (AAPL) last week finally won approval to build a retail outlet in Washington D.C., its first in the nation's capital.

The final rendering, shown at right, was designed to echo the architectural features of the city's historic Georgetown neighborhood. It was enthusiastically embraced by the same architectural preservation board that had soundly rejected Apple's previous designs.

"This is beautifully executed," Stephen J. Vanze, chairman of the Old Georgetown Board, told Karl Backus, Apple's architect, according to the Washington Post. "We're very pleased."

The Post did not say if Steve Jobs is equally pleased. Apple purchased the building that now stands on the site, 1229 Wisconsin Ave. NW, in 2007 for $13.3 million, according to IFOAppleStore. It has been navigating the maze of D.C.'s multi-layered approval process ever since.

For a company that puts so much stock in cutting-edge design, it must have been painful to be second-guessed at every turn by a couple of neighborhood boards.

How far is the final version from Apple's original conception? We tell the story through pictures below the fold.

Original building. Here's what currently stands at the site. The red-brick building's previous tenant was a French Connection clothing store.

First Apple design: Apple's first proposal, shown below in a sketch obtained by the Washington Post, was submitted in Sept. 2007 but rejected by the U.S. Fine Arts Commission's Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC).

Second Apple design. We're not sure what the ANC expected of Apple, but we're pretty sure it wasn't the design shown below: a shiny, two-story glass-and-steel retail emporium that doesn't look like anything else in the neighborhood. The Old Georgetown Board (OGB) — three architects appointed by the Fine Arts Commission — rejected it, reportedly concerned about how much light would spill out of all that glass at night.

Third Apple design. Apple came back with the version rendered below and a high-level endorsement: Steve Jobs himself had seen the design and liked it. The Georgetown Metropolitan did not. "In GM’s view," it editorialized,  "this is not an appropriate design for Georgetown." (link) The ANC agreed, and so did the OGB. (They felt it looked like a billboard, said a spokesman.) Apple's architects went back to the drawing board.

Fourth Apple design. What Apple came back with in February looks a lot like the original design rejected back in 2007. This time it was approved by the ANC but blocked by the OGB, which didn't like the large glass window and over-sized entrance on the ground floor.

Fifth (and final) Apple design. This one did the trick. According to IFOAppleStore, the changes were minor: upper windows slightly altered and metal dividers added to the wide first-story window to break it up into bays. By now, according to Georgetown's Vox Populi blog, "the Commissioners appeared sick of talking about the Apple store." The AMC urged the OGB to approve the new design, shown below, which it did on Thursday.

Below: Another view of the final design, as rendered by Georgetown Metropolitan from drawings obtained from the ANC.

One can only imagine what the iMac would look like if Jonathan Ive's designs needed not just Steve Jobs' approval, but that of the ANC and OGB as well.

New Yorkers know better, especially these days, than to expect any sympathy from the rest of the country — even though the city, with three Apple Stores for a population of more than 8 million, is conspicuously underserved by the company's retail outlets. (San Francisco's three stores, by contrast, serve a population of fewer than 800,000.)

But what about Brooklyn? The most populous of the five boroughs (pop. 2.5 million) would be, as any cabbie can tell you, the fourth largest city in the United States if it weren't yoked to Manhattan, Queens and the rest. It is home to tens of thousands of Mac users of every stripe — teachers, students, writers, artists, designers, musicians, mobsters — yet it has zero Apple Stores.

Which is why Brooklynites get so excited when there is any news, as there was this week, about Apple putting an outlet in their borough.

At a real estate roundtable on Tuesday, the developer of a huge condominium project on the Brooklyn side of the East River announced that an Apple Store was a "real possibility" for one of its prime ground floor retail spaces.

"There's no deal," developer Jeff Levine told the audience, according to the website Brownstoner. "But we are talking and they are interested."

The site in question is the Williamsburg Edge, a 575-apartment complex still under construction with two blue-glass towers and million-dollar views of the Manhattan skyline.

Sounds cool, huh? The problem for the rest of Brooklyn is that the Edge is on the edge of nowhere, with water on one side and Williamsburg on the other — a crazy quilt of ethnic enclaves teeming with Germans, Hasidic Jews, Italians, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and, most recently, artists and indie musicians fleeing Manhattan's exorbitant rents. There is only one subway — the crowded L line — and it connects Williamsburg to Manhattan, not to the main thoroughfares of Brooklyn.

Levine's claim — true or not — reignited the fierce internecine rivalry among Brooklyn neighborhoods that broke out a year and a half ago when word first spread, via ifoAppleStore, that Apple was shopping for a Kings County location. The pros and cons of some of the contending sites were summarized at the time by a local website called Racked.

For the benefit of my neighbors and any scouts from Apple's (AAPL) retail division who might be reading this, I've excerpted Racked's handicapping and a few of the comments. But because none of this will mean anything to the rest of the world, I've put it below the fold.

From Racked 9/13/2007:

Brace yourself: Apple is scouring Brooklyn, seeking a home in the 718 area code for a flagship Brooklyn Apple Store, sources tell Racked. While Apple's urge to hawk iPhones to Brooklynites is all but a certainty, what's not known at this time is which neighborhood the computer maker is targeting for its first Brooklyn foray.

Red Hook: Sure, Ikea's coming in. And rumors have swirled about a Bed Bath and Beyond coming in on the waterfront, too—there's at least 20,000 square feet of retail space still to play with there. Still? Apple likes stores in neighborhoods with serious foot traffic, and Ikea or not, that ain't Red Hook. Odds: 25-1

Smith Street: Foot traffic, check. And plenty of little boutiques lend an air of elegance. Okay, an air of quasi-elegance. Okay, an air of fresh Dunkin' Donuts. Transfats aside, the issue here is the lack of a retail footprint big enough even for Apple to open one of its smaller factory stores. And empty development footprints are few and far between. Odds: 15-1

Dumbo: Two Trees has been looking for a tenant in the long-vacated ABC Carpet and Home warehouse space, and there's something about the Apple and Dumbo brands that just seems to go together (overly precious, check; overly branded, check; we're over both of them, check). A longshot, though one we'd sort of love to see. Odds: 10-1

Downtown Brooklyn: Hey, if it's good enough for Target, right? By far the most boring choice, but also probably the most logical. Let's move on. Odds: 4-1

Williamsburg: Can you think of a major big-box retailer with a presence in the Burg? Exactly. Which is why this has to happen. Picture the hipsters, fresh off the L Train, wandering up North 6th and into the Apple Store, firm in their decision to avoid the $40 used iPod Shuffle on Craigslist in favor of the real $99 McCoy. These are the moments of our lives. Steve, baby, make it so. Odds: 3-1, in our wildest dreams

Additions? Deletions? To the comments, please.

Comments:

• You left out the most obvious choice. Every person in Park Slope uses a Mac. It's probably got more Apple users per capita than any neighborhood in all 5 boroughs. If they were smart, they'd open something on 7th avenue. Most foot traffic of any of the areas you mention…
• Dumbo is the soho of Brooklyn. Williamsburg the East Village. Park Slope the upperwest side. Downtown brooklyn……um Park Avenue south….Smith street…Nolita. I say it's Smith and Atlantic.
• The answer is clear — it will have steps leading down to a glass cube submerged in the Gowanus Canal. (link)

Disclosure: The author lives in Park Slope, Brooklyn, 41 Google Map minutes (via two subway lines and a 16 minute hike) from the Williamsburg Edge building site.

How do these rumors get started? Or, more to the point, how do they get perpetuated?

Late Thursday, a site called tinycomb ("Hand-Picked Tech News") reported that Facebook had been banned "for life" from every Apple (AAPL) store in the United States — some 207 retail outlets in all, by my count.

This must have been one of those facts that was too good to check, because I'm pretty sure none of the half-dozen newspapers and blogs that repeated and embellished the story bothered to do any legwork to confirm it.

It certainly seems that most of the readers who applauded the reported ban — a couple dozen at tinycomb, nearly 40 at Digg, more than 120 at MacRumors — took it as fact.

"Why has this been kept under the radar?" asked SherwinNero at tinycomb.

"Has it really been kept under the radar," answered Max, "or was it considered 'not significant enough' to put it on the front pages everywhere?"

Or is, just possibly, not true?

I know from experience that some Apple stores put limits on where on the Web you can take their demo machines — sometimes restricting Safari to Apple's promotional pages.

And it's certainly possible that individual stores have blocked Facebook — as MySpace has been blocked since May 2007 — because some of its members were hogging the machines.

Indeed, Ars Technica quotes an unnamed Apple employee who says his store has been blocking Facebook for about a month.

"It's just trying to find a balance between letting people try out the computers, but not tying them up so others can try them as well," he told Ars. (link)

But a person at Apple headquarters  in a position to know assures me that there is no nationwide ban on Facebook in effect — permanent or otherwise.

I'm headed to the nearest Apple store to check it out. If you're in one now, let us know in the comment stream where you are and whether the demo machine you're using will let you get to your Facebook page.

UPDATE: CNET's Caroline McCarthy beat me to it, did the legwork, and confirmed that Facebook is accessible at all three Manhattan Apple Stores, although as suspected there are individual machines in those stores that will redirect you to an Apple Store page. See here.