Microsoft moved a lot of install disks, but hardware makers got a bigger bump two years ago

Photo: Philip Elmer-DeWitt

When Microsoft (MSFT) launches a new operating system, as it did two weeks ago, PC manufacturers like Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Dell (DELL) and Acer are supposed to reap the benefits. And everything seemed to be in place on Thursday Oct. 22 for that to happen.

"Never before has the industry launched such a variety of new form factors, price points, technology upgrades, and design innovations at one time," wrote NPD's Stephen Baker just before Windows 7's release. "This past weekend I happened by a Best Buy store and there was not one single PC for sale with Vista on it. Lots of Windows 7 machines, however, all of which were marked 'not for sale until October 22.' Someone did a great job in the supply chain making this happen. This will give Win 7 a tremendous boost out of the gate." (link)

Two weeks later, Baker is singing a different tune. Microsoft got a big boost according to NPD's weekly tracking data, racking up sales of Windows 7 that were 234% higher than Vista's during its first few days of sales. (More on that below the fold.)

But PC makers didn't make out quite as well. Although they had a relatively strong week, with unit sales up 49% year over year and 95% from the week before, it was nothing like Vista's launch in Feb. 2007. Then, sales soared 68% year over year and 170% from the week before.

In a press release issued Thursday, Baker explained what happened:

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Who'll win over consumers this holiday season? We test-drive the newest netbooks and notebooks.

This Christmas expect small computer overload — so many options, so little time (and money).  All the major computer manufacturers are coming out with lightweight 'net-connected laptops, and they're banking on big sales: The researchers at IDC expect some 160 million notebook computers to sell worldwide by the end of the year.

But which company will come out on top? It's a tight market right now in the notebook world. HP's (HPQ) remains the market leader in personal computers; Dell (DELL) is, for now, the No. 2 PC maker. But Taiwanese rival Acer is coming on strong, especially in the netbook market. More

In a sign that should bode well for Apple's (AAPL) earnings in its third fiscal quarter — which ended Saturday — the MacBook has clawed its way back to the top of Amazon's (AMZN) bestseller lists.

The Mac, which once led the pack in the online retailer's Computers & PC Hardware Bestsellers category despite its $1,000 to $2,000 sticker prices, had fallen behind the blistering sales pace set by netbooks like the Asus Eee and the Acer Aspire One, which sell in the $300 to $400 range.

By June 1, the bestselling Apple computer on the list — a white plastic MacBook — had been pushed down to the No. 14 position.

But netbooks have started to fall out favor recently — as witnessed by reports of return rates as high as 30% and an NPD study that found that 60% of consumers who bought them didn't understand the difference between a netbook and a notebook.

Meanwhile, Apple announced on June 8 that it was refreshing its notebook line and lowering its prices. Result: its computers have become hot sellers on Amazon once again.

Apple's entry-level 13-inch unibody MacBook, renamed the MacBook Pro, has been one of Amazon's top 100 bestsellers for 20 days — basically since the moment it went on sale. As of Monday morning, it was the site's No. 4 bestselling computer overall and No. 1 in the laptop category.

In fact, three of the top 10 and five of the top 20 bestselling laptops on Amazon are now MacBooks.

Apple is not the only beneficiary of what some see as growing consumer disillusion with netbooks. HP (HPQ) Pavilions, Toshiba Satellites and Samsung Mini Notebooks are also selling briskly online.

See also:

• AMEX vs. Amazon; Macs vs. netbooks
• Amazon’s Christmas bestsellers: Acer, Apple and Asus

Here's a tale of two demographics.

If you list the five bestsellers in Amazon's "Computers and PC Hardware" category today, you get five netbooks — three ASUS Eees and two ACER Aspire Ones. That's been the story pretty much all year.

If you list the five most popular items in "Computers and Software" on American Express's shopAmex site, you get four Apple (AAPL) products — three MacBooks, one Apple TV and one Sony (SNE) Blu-Ray player.

The first non Apple computer on the AMEX site is No. 17, a Dell (DELL) Inspiron. The first Apple on the Amazon list is No. 14, a white MacBook.

Why the difference? The Amazon site is open to everyone and tends to attract bargain hunters. The AMEX site is open only to card members, and although it advertises 30% discounts, it's attracting a different sort of clientele — one that doesn't seem to be put off by Apple's premium pricing.

Here are those lists:

A report last week that Apple (AAPL) is preparing to slash prices on its entry level MacBook and iMac models has triggered a flurry of speculation about what the new price points might be.

According to AppleInsider's Kasper Jade, Apple sees the cuts — which could come in the next month or two — as an "interim solution" to the growing popularity of netbooks, those sub-compact laptops that Steve Jobs once dismissed as "a piece of junk" but which are flying off the shelves at $299 to $349 apiece.

For example Acer, whose Aspire One netbooks are Amazon's bestsellers, saw its U.S. market share grow 49.4% (to 13.6%) in the first quarter of 2009, according to Gartner Research, even as Apple's share shrank to 7.4%, down 1% year to year. Mac sales actually fell last quarter for the first time in nearly six years.

How low will Apple go to turn that around? Jade's reporting — based on unnamed sources "familiar with the matter" — is fuzzy on that point, but in the comment stream he makes it clear that he's talking about price reductions in the range of $100 to $150.

Applying these cuts to the current entry-level machines, we get:

• White 13-inch MacBook: $849 – $899, reduced from $999
• 20-inch 2.66 GHz aluminum iMac: $969 – $1,019, reduced from $1,119

With gross margins last quarter of 36.4% — up from 34.7% in Q1 — Apple can certainly afford to sacrifice some profit to grow share. As AppleInsider points out, Apple last month started selling 2GHz iMacs to the education market for $899.

The real questions is, will it work? Will consumers who are buying $349 Acers — or like Microsoft's (MSFT) Lauren, $699 HP (HPQ) Pavilions — give the MacBook a second look if it's priced at $849?

Would you?

On Wednesday, Gartner Research reported that Apple's (AAPL) share of the U.S. computer market, which topped 9% in calendar Q3 last year, dropped to 7.4% in Q1 2009 — putting it in fourth place behind HP (HPQ), Dell (DELL) and Acer.

The next day, Apple's share price rose nearly 2% to finish Thursday at $121.45, its highest close in six months.

Why the disconnect? Chalk it up to the ASPs.

As Gartner's Mikako Kitagawa notes, sales for Apple's competitors are being driven by the explosion of interest in low-cost netbooks — not just among penny-pinching consumers, but in the professional and education markets as well.

As result, Gartner estimates that average selling prices (ASPs) for computers sold in the first quarter may have fallen as much as 20% across the board — cutting sharply into PC makers' revenues.

Except at Apple. Despite rumors that its engineers may be working on some kind of device with a 10-inch screen, the company has so far shown zero interest in duking it out with the likes of Acer and Asus in the bargain basement mini-notebook market.

So even as Apple's market share shrinks, its margins and gross revenue are likely to have held up better than any of its competitors.

Moreover, while Gartner's Ms. Kitagawa is seeing signs of channel inventory restocking at other companies — evidence that the global PC market has not yet hit bottom — she singles out Apple's "deft control of inventories [which] limited its shipment decline."

All this — and a flood of deferred iPhone earnings — may help explain why analysts are scrambling to raise their Apple price targets (and talking up the stock) in advance of the company's fiscal Q2 earnings report next Wednesday, April 22.

Below the fold: Gartner's preliminary estimates of domestic PC shipments for Q1 2009.

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Look what Santa left under Amazon.com's tree this Christmas morning:

• 7 Acer netbooks
• 7 Apple MacBooks
• 4 Asus netbooks
• 2 Samsung netbooks
• 2 MSI netbooks
• 1 OLPC (One laptop per child) XO laptop
• 1 Lenova Ideapad laptop
• 1 Toshiba Satellite laptop

Can you spot the ringer on Amazon's 2008 Christmas-day list of 25 bestselling notebook computers?

You guessed it. It's those seven premium-priced Apple (AAPL) MacBooks in a shopping cart dominated by stripped-down netbooks, heavily discounted Windows notebooks and a 2-for-1 "$100" laptop.

Except for the MacBooks and one $599 Toshiba, every computer on that list sells for less than $500.

The seven MacBooks, by contrast, sell for three times as much: an average of $1,473.41, after rebates.

It's almost as if Macintosh buyers were insensitive to price, even in a recession. In fact, the best-selling Apple on that list isn't the cheapest; it's a $1,299 unibody MacBook marked down to $1,218.98. The cheapest Apple — a $999 white MacBook, marked down to $929.99 — is No. 22.

Over on Amazon's desktop bestseller list, Apple did even better this Christmas morning: 4 of the top 5 are Macs.

Amazon (AMZN) is the world's largest online retailer, but for definitive holiday sales figures we'll have to wait for the quarterly reports.

Dueling reports Wednesday from the two leading PC survey firms — Gartner and IDC — confirm what the crowds at the Apple (AAPL) stores have been telling us: The Mac had a great second quarter.

According to Gartner, Mac sales grew 38% year-over-year to edge out Acer/Gateway/PackardBell for the No. 3 spot in the United States after Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ). IDC recorded slightly slower growth (31.7%) and has Apple still trailing Acer by 2,000 units — not a statistically significant figure in a quarter in which Apple shipped an estimated 2.37 million Macs worldwide.

Gartner puts Apple's U.S. market share at 8.5%, up from 6.4% a year ago; IDC has it at 7.8%, up from 6.2%. Both reports are preliminary.

Apple still doesn't make the top 5 in either company's list of top PC vendors worldwide, although IDC's Loren Loverde says it came in No. 6. (link)

It's worth noting that while its competitors were cutting prices to boost sales in a tight domestic economy, Apple managed to grow faster while maintaining profit margins that are the envy of the industry.

And if you count iPhones and iPod touches as computers, says 9to5 Mac's Seth Weintraub, "you get a whole new ball game."

Below the fold: the charts from both reports. More

Acer, the Taiwanese computer manufacturer that acquired Gateway Inc. last year, has as a result overtaken Apple (AAPL) in both U.S. and worldwide computer sales, according to preliminary reports issued Wednesday by Gartner and IDC.

Although the two market research firms show Apple's domestic computer sales in the Christmas quarter up roughly 30 percent from last year — outpacing the industry average by better than 3 to 1 — Apple's share of the market actually fell during those three months. According to Gartner, the Mac now has 6.1 percent of the U.S. market; according to IDC it's 5.7 percent. That puts Apple in 4th place behind Dell (DELL), HP (HPQ) and Acer in U.S. personal computer sales.

In October, Gartner and IDC estimated Apple's 3Q share of the U.S. market to be considerably higher: 8.1 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively. See here.

In worldwide PC sales, Apple doesn't make the top five in either research firm's report.

These results would seem to contradict analysts' predictions of blowout Christmas sales for Apple. Earlier this week Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster estimated that 2.3 million Macs may have shipped worldwide in the quarter, representing year-to-year growth of 43 percent.

Gartner's and IDC's results are preliminary and could change when the manufacturers release their sales figures. Apple is scheduled to announce it's quarterly results next Tuesday.

Below the fold: Gartner and IDC charts of U.S. computer sales.

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