The great iPhone death watch

What a bunch of morons… I understand their so-called job is to review and comment on new equipments that may/will hit the market… this means that they must have had access to the product prior to doing so. Otherwise it would be very irresponsible to make the comments these professional morons did prior to the iPhone being released. Not to mention that if they even bothered to seek access to the product in question, it would have been the prototype, which no doubt would not have been perfect. I have the original iPhone with the new software update and it's working perfectly… The article above clearly demonstrates that the media is not to be trusted. I find this example troubling for they are supposed to be experts. Their opinions are sought and many people even respect them and take for granted what they are told (their bad, I guess). So, yeah, a few years later, millions of iPhones, blah blah blah… I would love to see these so-called experts faces now. Specially since I think many probably own an iPhone today!

Glenn wrote: "Apple junked its plan to sell a top-dollar, unsubsidized phone within two months, going instead with the traditional subsidized phone model that cut $200 of the initial price".

Your memory is faulty. Yes Apple quickly cut $200 off the price of the first iPhone, but it was still unsubsidized. It wasn't until the iPhone 3G was released in July 2008 that they went back to a traditional subsidized phone model, and simultaneously cut another $100 off the price.

I see they were so dam right the iphone is a total failure;)…I like to see Ballmer laughing now..where did he go when the iphone 3g was released with half the price, huh? where were u?

Diane Gale
pitbull training

I am on the verge of getting an iPhone. Should I? Any advice or alternative suggestions?
I'm at http://wp.me/pDjed-6h

This collection of viability predictions sound like they have the same type attitude as these HR types commenting on the qualifications of 20% of the population that is unemployed.

So why is America struggling with such clever and perceptive people in change?

Good. What a stupid thing to say.

To all those that said these comments were right on because of the limitations of the original device, that is complete BS. First of all, many of these comments were made before anyone really had a chance to play with the phone so they didn't even know what its capabilities were. Second, who assumes a company doesn't make adjustments as products get released? Of course Apple made adjustments.

Apple's next product will change the small computer segment. Netbooks sell because they are cheap, but there is no innovation there. The tiny keyboards and limitations make these poor devices once the novelty has worn off. Apple is not going to cram a desktop OS in a small computer and call it innovation. If anything, their tablet will be closer to the iPhone with a simpler interface than a computer and focus on tasks. Apple may be late to this market (as they were with mp3 players and phones), but they are going to own it.

You expected these people to say "Gee, its great, dont think we can compete with the iPhone, darn, wish we would have come up with it"???????????? of COURSE the (mainly) competition is gonna slam it. Sheesh

There seems to be an iPhone killer every week. The only iPhone killer will be made by Apple.

(Done)

That F**ing Ballmer. Gates at least had SOME vision. Ballmer is a clueless clown. BALLMBER NEEDS TO GO (misp. on purpose)

Ballmer is an idiot and the sooner Microsoft's board figures that out and replaces him the sooner Microsoft will be relevant outside Windows and Office.

I have never doubted Apple's ability to turn out quality products. These "experts" should have considered the iPod and not the Mac when projecting the iPhone's success.

No other phone is an iPhone killer the same no other PC is a Mac killer – either it suits your needs or it doesn't. If it was on Verizon I'd buy it right now. I will not get an iPhone because AT&T is $&#@! I just picked up a Driod and other than lacking the multi-touch interface it's pretty amazing. I can handle double-touching to zoom in/out I think.

So lets see the comments about the Apple TV. Not everything with a Apple logo on it turns to gold.

I really hope that Jon Stewart would read this blog and get Steve Ballmer in, and rip him a la Jim Cramer, the other talking head out there.

It raises the question: why anyone would ask for an opinion from a CEO (or any other professional "expert") about anything? If they were so wrong on this, what *else* are they completely off the map about?

Apple actually makes $600+ PER PHONE (with subsidy) and that does NOT include iTunes sales. MS shareholders continue to allow MS to funnel the margins & sales from enterprise into the consumer which MS knows very little bout (XBox division has spent $35 BILLION to make $20 billion – nice shareholder equity & math there). The mobile division is probably only $5 billion in losses overall. After all, this is a technology company that not only can't make money on the internet but lost $700 million.
Posted By jbelkin, dnaville ca: December 1, 2009 1:56 PM

RE: Your comment is so off my friend. I do not want to jump to conclusions but from what you wrote I do not believe you know anything about the video gaming industry or Microsoft's part in such industry. Walk into any GameStop and ask one of their Game advisors what current generation system has the most to offer a gamer of any experience and they will tell you the XBOX 360 is your unit. Microsoft because of their fat pockets were able to weather the tribulations that come with being a new player in the video gaming industry, you have to spend money to make money. The first XBOX hit the market place earlier in the decade while competitors like SONY (Japan) and Nintendo (Japan) have been around for some time and had a great advantage over Microsoft (USA baby) who was for the most part a grass roots video gaming hardware developer (console). Belkin, the truth is Microsoft has a strong hold on gaming at this point, please keep in mind if you want to by a good game for your PC chances are it will be on Windows. And for that matter the ZUNE Phone if it ever materializes will in my opinion be the true threat to the iPhone, I mean they have the design and like Apple when one entity has complete control over hardware and softwear design the two should work together in complete harmony ie. My Macbook Pro. So my friend Belkin please do not talk about MSFT and use it's gaming unit as your target because right now Sony's gaming division is bleeding money and that is a company whom is far less profitable then the parent of the XBOX 360.

Phillip Elmer-DeWitt please do another titled The Apple Death Watch as the result will no doubt be just as profound.
I'd love to see who (the almighty) said what.

More More More Please.
This article is too too good.
Please do another on other Mac or Apple comments of doom. You are the best.

I really like when columnists write these types of summaries. These naysayers are all modern day tech prophets thinking they can control the market with there comments. That used to happen in the 90s but not so much today. Didn't false prophets get stoned? Credibility? Gone. Just look at Ballmer.

The really interesting bit is how so many pundits can be so wrong so repeatedly about one company. Why?? What is it about Apple that attracts these self-appointed prognosticators? How is it that they aren't drummed out of the Pundit Corps on strike 3? Why is it that Apple's track record alone doesn't cause responsible editors to turn down stories that are so unlikely to pan out??

I think it says quite a bit about the current state of the media that personal animus of so many writers goes unchecked by reality.

I bet those same nay sayers will keep their mouths shut and their minds open next time there's a big rumor/announcement from the most influential tech company on the planet.

I simply have one word BlackBerry!!

What I think the iPhone naysayers failed to see is that the iPhone was an evolutionary step for the iPod line as much as it was the debut of an Apple-branded smartphone.

Similar to the iPod, video game consoles and even Windows PCs, content availability (games, software, music, movies, etc.) are a driving force in hardware product adoption. The iPhone came out of the sales gate with music, movies and TV shows readily available for consumption via of iTunes. The app store and the tens of thousands of apps available add to the allure of the device.

I run about 50 apps on my iPhone and it has much of music collection stored on the drive. Of all the features of the iPhone I use most, the phone isn't one of them. Of the phone's features, visual voice mail and conference calling are worth the admission price in the way I choose to use a phone.

There's no real mystery here as to why the iPhone succeeded. Nor will there be a mystery as to why the much-rumored Apple tablet finds success upon release.

In looking at Apple's hardware product paradigm, each new hardware device (including the Intel iMac) has had an expansion of content consumption or use built into the devices. Apple mitigated the concerns about the disparity of software availability on the Mac by releasing Boot Camp and making it easy for owners to install Windows and use Windows apps and the attraction of that capability assisted in boosting sales.

iTunes is essential to the iPod's success and the app store is essential to furthering the iPhone's market penetration. Enterprise-specific apps will help drive iPhone sales in the business market. For consumers, the iPhone and its non-phone companion the iPod touch are growing increasingly popular due to the availability of content for the devices.

Looking at the iPhone first as a conduit for content and second as a phone is how its success and its continuing success can be more clearly seen.

Apple gets $600 in revenue per iPhone sold, and will sell about 30-40m units this year. Microsoft gets $20-30 in revenue per Windows Mobile phone sold, and its partners sell nowhere near enough WinMo phones for Microsoft to generate any significant revenue or profit.

Droid???

Hahaha…call me when it can do voice and data at the same time, and I can use apps and look stuff up on the web while on a conference call.

DROID==Fail

What's funny is Apple themselves will be the death of iphone.

- Not wanting to give up that fat carrier subsidy and being across all carriers ala RIM. Apple is and will always be about the profit margin. Verzon will NOT happen in 2010.

- Developer discontent and flea market feel to an already bloated AppStore. How does your app even get noticed? Used? No one needs or wants 100,000 apps.

- User boredom. Seriously in the past 4 months I've downloaded and kept / use maybe 3 apps .. still use Blackberry all day vs. playing around on the 3Gs. iPhone was neat in 2007, it's a tired form factor now – slow to introduce technology other devices have had for years (umm tethering, how long did MMS take?)

Most people have had their fun, recognize the device for what it is and either love it or have moved on.

Great App/Media/Internet device – barely usable for much else.

Those guys all thought Apple was coming out with a cell phone. That's where they went wrong. The iPhone is many things, including a mobile phone, but that's not what it's really about.

The iPhone is not about dropped calls or voice communications. Sure it can do that but it's way down the list of what I use my iPhone for.

I was out and about all day today. I used my iPhone constantly. Did I ever make or receive a phone call. Hmmmm. Don't remember with certainty but don't think so.

The iPhone is all about maps and navigation, stock quotes, email, chats, calculations, restaurant reservations, calendar reminders, calculator(s), remote computer access, and a host of other useful Apps.

For me it's not about the telephone. Nor is it about games. It's all about information access and useful applications.

Other's may use the telephone a lot more than I do. They may play games. I don't. Customation is perhaps the strongest feature.

Do you suppose the pundits say its going to fail, but actually believe it will succeed, out of self-interest? For example, dissuading everyone else from buying into Apple stock, so they can buy it and make a fortune?

Yep. They're right, the iPhone failed.

Actually, many of the early comments were spot-on.

When the first iPhone launched, it cost too much and did too little. What the commentators didn't count on was how quickly Apple would move to address those big flaws.

Apple junked its plan to sell a top-dollar, unsubsidized phone within two months, going instead with the traditional subsidized phone model that cut $200 of the initial price.

And about nine months after launch, the company made clear that it would be opening up the iPhone to developers, allowing it to gain all kinds of new functionality through the apps they would develop.

Had those things not happened — had the situation stayed the same as it was when the iPhone launched — the commentators would have been right, and the iPhone would have been little more than a footnote in the history of smartphones.

What I wrote on my blog in December 2006 while the rumours were swirling:

"What is the big hope for an Apple-designed phone? Read as many analysts' writings as you wish but it comes down to a single common factor: simplicity.

Or more accurately, how easy it is for the consumer to just dial and receive calls, and then have the technology get the heck out the way. For those users who want more from their phone, then those details should be hidden from view, but accessible with just one or two clicks or thumb movements. Then all is laid bare, yet still simple to use. Out of the way when not needed or understood, easily available and powerful when the need arises.

Hmm, sounds alot like OS X, doesn't it?

That's the hallmark of Apple's designs that those of us who look beyond CPU power and initial price look for: ease of use, then get out of my way while I'm being creative or collaborative or whatever it is I wish to do with the product.

Link: http://bit.ly/6Lr0Fj

About that title…

I don't know whether this was conscious or not, but for me the title was a reference to the very active Apple Death Watch of the late '90s. In those pre-iMac days, Apple was frequently labeled "beleaguered" and a couple of sites started an "Apple Death Watch" — some ironically (like this one, quoting others predicting death) others in all seriousness (suggesting it was just a matter of time before Apple shut down).

I can see how folks thought Apple would fail with the iPhone. Unlike a PC or MP3 player, the mobile, mission-critical nature of a phone is a whole different beast. One degree off axis and Apple could have gone down in flames.

What the pundits missed was the integrity and versatility of MacOSX (the foundation of the iPhone) and Apple's ability to extend its supremacy in the computer UI space to the sadly, sadly lacking world of smart phones.

The iPhone is not buggy. The iPhone UI has redefined the smart phone using/app buying experience and everyone else is playing catch-up. And consumers have to be wondering what other products/experiences they've been tolerating over the years that couldn't be improved upon so dramatically.

And thus Apple generates the halo effect…

This is a great article. I remember Zander standing on the stage and saying how stupid Steve Jobs was to dump the phones Motorola was making and make their own. And I remember how Motorola's CTO Padmashree Warrior wrote about the flaws of the new device. I also remember a study that said that almost 40% of the people getting the iPhone were replacing a Motorola phone. Motorola has never been able to execute its digital phone strategy because they never put any resources into it. Now they are running away from the problem by separating their mobile phone group. And of course the board of directors there is snoring.

And I listened to all of them and refused to believe that the iPhone could make a big impact. I had remembered the Newton–a useloss toy–and figured this would be the same. After all, the iPod had been Apple's only seriously big hit since the original Macintosh, and how many companies hit two home runs in their entire lifetimes? And this brings me to the present, where I am content to no longer dabble in the stock market. I clearly have no knack for reading what people want or whether commentators have any clue what the future holds.

Loved the headline, loved the article, wondered why most commenters came to this blog.

Well since the Galvins left, Motorola only gets CEO's who have inflated ego's and are solely interested in ensuring their own pockets are full. Motorola now have two CEO's who seem totally lost at what to do. (To pay for and get the new CEO onboard they did a cash grab on the employees by freezing pensions & not matching 401K's). I would find it hard to beleive this would have happened if the Galvins were still at the helm
Sadly, it seems neither of the CEO's seem to have any idea of how to incentivate the remaining people in Motorola. Is Motorola doomed: Very sadly that seems a high probability.

Apple actually makes $600+ PER PHONE (with subsidy) and that does NOT include iTunes sales. MS shareholders continue to allow MS to funnel the margins & sales from enterprise into the consumer which MS knows very little bout (XBox division has spent $35 BILLION to make $20 billion – nice shareholder equity & math there). The mobile division is probably only $5 billion in losses overall. After all, this is a technology company that not only can't make money on the internet but lost $700 million.

Really don't know how Steve Ballmer gets to where he is right now.

I say more power to the idiots of the world. It creates an arbitrage for investors like me. In February of 2007, after watching Steve Jobs' intro of the iPhone at MWSF07, I bought 2000 shs of AAPL. Believe me, I am very happy and still have 1835 of those shs.

Ballmer said, "if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."

First, MS never had 60% to 80% of the 1.3B cellphone market, at its best, MS shipped 20M licenses, which would give it about 1.5%. Sadly, MS is now on pace to ship about 10M licenses this year, for a less than 1% share. And, the iPhone will likely have double that share. Which strategy does Ballmer like now? The one that generates $12B in annual sales, or the one that generates less than $250M. In fact, MS's WinMo strategy may actually cost them money, as they reportedly are paying LG to use their OS, and pretty soon, LG may be their only customer of the big 5 mfrs, seeing as Samsung is going to use their own version of Linux, and HTC is throwing their hat in with Android.

My question is how many of these clowns still have their jobs, and if so why?

The funny thing in these comments, people ripping on Ballmer when he was right!

At $500 the iPHONE wouldn't do much, and Apple obviously agreed and dropped the price almost immediately.

He said that Apple would make a lot of money but only be 2-3% of the market, and he is right!

Remember it is 33M phones in 3 years, our of over 3B phones sold.

Interesting seeing all their negative comments. Just goes to show Steve Jobs is way ahead of the curve and they for the most part are CLUELESS as to what consumers want…

You have to realize that there is a subset of the population that will always go against the hype so that they can say "I was the one who predicted this!" when something flops. The louder the hype, the more people come out of the woodwork to predict the opposite.

You see it in stocks all the time. There is always some analyst out there that is declaring the next bubble so that, when one of his 100 predictions finally happens, he can say "Ha! I'm a genius!" and get himself booked on every financial news show out there.

after Microsoft CEO Palmer comment.. the following statemets are sponsored by microsoft i think

Steve Ballmer is a total idiot. He ranks up there with Michael Dell and his comment years ago about what he would do with Apple if he were in charge (shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders). Both men have a lot of knowledge about the industry but don't have the common sense and creativity to make their companies truly special. They are also not man enough to admit when they have had their heads handed to them. They are masters of copying and keeping up – certainly not innovation. Like their Wallstreet counterparts, they are rewarded for mediocracy and failures (Vista & Zune – ouch!) Until the Microsoft board of directors decides to give Ballmer the boot, Microsoft will continue to be mediocre technology company resting on its laurels and delivering uninspiring products to people who don't care enough about what they buy. We saw companies in the last year go bankrupt that were thought by the world to be indestructible. Microsoft better be careful – the next 5-10 years could see their company go from the titan it is to a faint memory.

Actually, I kind of like the title (and as ex ped will verify, I haven't been exactly shy about making my opinion known when I don't like them!). Fact is, the "death watch" is still alive and well. Witness some of the trash talking when the Android came out.

But as the saying goes, it's all water off a duck's back. Apple just concentrates on doing its thing, and thus continues to pull away from the pack.

Thanks for helping to keep my retirement plans on track, Apple!

I agree, how about a follow-up with some of those pundits? Could be a lot of fun (particularly if you can get another juicy quote from Ballmer…)

The article title should be changed to:

" Corporate world is lead by a plethora of greedy idiots that are blinded to customer needs by their gargantuan salaries. "

Harvard, Yale, Stanford, etc… education for what conceive plans to rip the maximum amount of money out of consumers for the least amount of contribution.

Apple keep up the good work and I hope more Steve jobs get to lead great companies.

Clearly the headline is designed to grab attention, but I don't think it's too far off the mark. Even in the face of all the ill informed prognostications, including quite a few post launch claims that some new phone (Storm, Pre) would kill the iPhone, people can't resist the thrill of betting against the house (that Steve built).

I think the headline is snarky enough to pass muster.

It would be great if someone could go back to these short sighted pundits and revisit their comments with them–and see what they have to say now. It's obvious that there are people like these at Apple's competitors. The type who say everything is "impossible" or "not worth it".

Get Real… It's called Satire!
Lighten up!

I wholeheartedly agree… the title of this article caught my attention… for all the WRONG reasons!

GO AAPL!

Phil how could you miss classic from Enderle?

http://www.uberpulse.com/us/2007/01/rob_enderle_skeptic_on_iphone.php

I was on those CRAZY lines @ Roosevelt mall in LONG ISLAND on June 29, 2007 with I phone mania, and bought 3 phones @ 599.00 =$1,800.00. I later got a rebate of $100 per phone = $300.00 . Mr Job's did a wonderful thing and my purchase then did the following.
The three (3) phones Are still in use today and trippled because the "original phone's are still in use and "up graded" to today's standards. I still have mine but will go to "NEW I-PHONE SOON.
Bought (3) originally added (2) GS FOR FAMILY AND OVER A DOZEN FRIENDS FOLLOWED "SUIT". I also have my "MACBOOK, and love the I-PHONE. Support and "help" is APPLES FORTE. Thank you APPLE
NORMAN ROBLES

Sorry, had to add another comment. Reading Ed Zander's comment made me laugh….hahaha. Moto who? Sad to say, I did love their StarTac and V60 from back in the day.

Here's another great one:

"Apple can do a very limited amount of reshaping. I think that when this phone actually hits the market, some of the grand visions that Steve Jobs has as well as some of the Apple zealots are going to be rather disappointed."
Peter Fader, Professor of Marketing, Wharton

Plenty more ridiculous statements were made too:

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1646

Follow-up with these nay sayers and get their reflection on those comments. That would be an interesting read as well.

You tell 'em, PED! If only a good virtual smack in the head were sufficient to generate a feel for irony. I'm surprised someone so thick reads this column …

liked the article, the headline is a bust. You might as well add your headline to this list of quotes. =)

I agree that the headline was a tad misleading. Something along the lines of "iSight is 20/20" might have been a bit more on point.

Still, I love revisiting quotes like this that are so polarized from the onset, compared to how the actual product/company has fared.

It's actually the world's smallest netbook which happens to take telephone calls. I've been writing this for about two years. I carry a Blackberry and an IPhone and I have to tell you that I've experienced little difference in call failure rates. The Blackberry is toast and so is the Kindle.

It's a catchy headline. Did anyone look at the headline and seriously think that the iphone was dying ??

iPhone gave me cancer.. =8^(

How about "Remember the Great iPhone…" or "2007: The Great iPhone…"

Great piece, nothing like seeing some of the analysts getting 'served'.

PS: I'd love see each "then" quote paired with what the same analyst is saying "now".

Seriously! We get it already..fans & non-fans… iPhone is great! You guys really need MORE Apple articles (clicks)so bad that you distort your Headlines? C'mon now…we're not this stupid! Well..maybe we are..we all clicked to find out right?! Great job..go get your paycheck!

There's a lot of people predicting a similar fate for Google's Chrome OS… Well only time will tell.

I like Zig Ziglar's quote regarding doom-mongers… economists have predicted TEN of the last Three recessions…

Why is "The great iPhone death watch" your headline? This suggests that the iPhone is dying and this certainly isn't true. What a nasty person you are for posting this headline!!! Why not call your list "The Great List of Arrogant Idiot Pundits That Make Stupid Pronouncements about Apple and its Products."?

ex ped: That headline doesn't fit on one line.