The future of the PC: Chrome or Fusion?
Will tomorrow’s PC be a nimble netbook or a high-def laptop? Google and AMD recently offered opposing views.
If Google has its way, the mainstream PC of the future will be a lot simpler than the one you’re using right now.
Like a TV, it will turn on almost instantly instead of taking nearly a minute to boot up. It will do everything through a web browser, pulling down most programs and data from the Internet. It’ll make do with a low-cost processor and will carry a cheap price tag – kind of like today’s stripped down netbooks, only with even fewer frills.
That’s just Google’s (GOOG) vision. A few miles down the road from the search giant’s Silicon Valley headquarters, the folks at chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices have a very different idea.
AMD is wagering that the majority of tomorrow’s shoppers will want more performance from their PCs. It is putting the finishing touches on a new chip that combines a microprocessor and a graphics core in one – a trick it hopes will attract consumers who want smooth high-def video and rich 3D gaming in a slim, low-cost package.
Who’s closer to the mark?
Of course, it’s too soon to tell. But before long shoppers will get to vote with their wallets.
Last week Google engineers showed off an early version of their browser-based Chrome operating system, what they call “a better model for personal computing.” (When it’s broadly available, Chrome will come pre-installed on netbooks that are specifically designed to run it.) A few days earlier, AMD announced that its Fusion processors would arrive in 2011. If all goes as planned, the two technologies will be duking it out on retail shelves in a little more than a year.
The contrasting ideas from Google and AMD come at a turbulent time for the computer industry.
Sales have slowed in the global recession, pressuring the PC revenues of stalwarts like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL). Hardware profit margins have also suffered as bargain shoppers shun higher-priced machines in favor of netbooks with small screens, modest horsepower and low price tags. (The exception is Apple, which has somehow managed to keep selling premium PCs in a historic recession. Go figure.)
The big question is where the industry’s next stage of growth will come from. Will consumers shift their dollars toward wireless computing devices that resemble Amazon (AMZN) Kindles, Apple (AAPL) iPhones and Google Chrome-powered netbooks? Or will they find reasons to keep buying full-blown computers?
Google argues the former. While Windows PCs won’t go away, Google’s thinkers believe a lot of folks would be happy with a simpler, more affordable computer that just gets them online. Considering how netbooks have become the hot ticket in the PC business lately, Google may have a point.
But there’s also evidence that consumers aren’t ready to give up our software-packed PCs anytime soon. As we continue to accumulate gadgets like Flip video cameras and iPhones, we’ll need more powerful computers to manage the digital content – something a basic Chrome OS device won’t be able to do.
Brisk sales of Windows 7 and Apple’s (AAPL) Snow Leopard operating system also prove that the PC-buying public can still get excited about slick-looking operating systems that use 3D effects and animation to help users get things done. That’s a welcome sign for a company like AMD, which has bet its future on the notion that the world will keep its healthy appetite for computers with some horsepower.
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Google's vision might come true one day but thats going to be a long ways away. The internet is just not as stable as it should be for this to take off yet. #1 they would have to increase the internets capability to carry more data and #2 it would have to cover every part of the US. That infrastructure is not in place. Not to mention people that play games and run other demanding programs won't be able to use that kind of computer. This may be appealing as a secondary computer for people but it will never replace the high end PCs.
What Google has never figured out is that sometimes I need to do things offline because there is no internet connection available. Between that and the fact that you simply cannot trust techies and their sleazebag lawyers with privacy issues, who the hell wants to trustingly compute in a cloud?
High-end computers will continue to be in demand so long as the stuff folks want to do REQUIRES high-end computers.
Only recently have the capabilities of consumer-grade computers begun to outrun the desires of the average Joe or Judy. All consumers want to be able to watch video. Only a subset want to create, edit and publish it.
In a few years, if AMD successfully rolls out their next generation of processors, a very generic computer will give you video-processing capabilities only a Spielburg could have accessed a decade ago. For Jake or Jane it will be far too much. They'll get by just fine with a much more basic machine.
As for the wireless network access — it is coming. As a disgruntled AT&T/iPhone user I know 3G is far from universal — now. But the demand to build it out is enormous. And 4G will come along even more quickly. In a few years universal wireless internet access will be a given.
My take? Google/Chrome will eventually be a big, big player, and get bigger over time. For the AMD strategy to pay off there is going to have to be a new demand driver for high-end computer power.
And you know what? I don't think gaming will be it. Not while the game has to be experienced through a two-dimensional display. The machines we have today can throw almost anything up on a computer screen. Hard-core gamers won't agree, but they're a small subset too.
Scary… yes… more power to the companies hosting those apps… yes.. more power to those if in the wrong hands yes… everything is moving to web-based.. cloud computing, web-servers etc. . this will continue to grow as the cost for institutions upgrading costly equipment (servers, workstations, etc.) will cause this shift to happen.
On behalf of biggamingonline I would definately have to say that less is not going to be more… Although, Google's future notebook-wanna-be may appeal to a financially struggling college student trying to make ends meet. But that is it, nothing more.
I run an online video gaming community, am a creator of a online video game base "clan," and you can bet your bottom dollar that an increase in preformance will be the deciding factor for the next generation. This is proven throughout history. For example… "windows," just keeps getting better… with the exception of vista, which microsoft learned from very quickly… and corrected faster than you can scream the word "Mac."
Anyway, if you are looking for an oversized search engine to go… then the google notebook sounds like the way to go. If you want more(which I know you do), then I know that the faster processor with the better graphics card combined in to one will be the bread winner on this battle field.
I see a ChromeOS that needs the likes of Fusion. Running modern browser based apps means heavy ajax processing on the local machine. It also means offline work when you're not connected (gears or newer html5 database caching methods). The browser is the new machine that programs will compile to.
This is a new paradigm that will start in niches like netbooks but slowly grow in all directions including desktops and phones.
I hope that you got my message about what a dumbwit you are for trying to summarily dismiss Apple's achievement with "go figure".
"(The exception is Apple, which has somehow managed to keep selling premium PCs in a historic recession. Go figure.)"
The future will offer both. Broadband data speeds/outages will keep full blown computers around, especially with the dropping prices of SSDs. I expect to see a wave of computers with 32GB SSDs that hold the OS, Pagefile, and other critical apps, with a second traditional platter based HDD to hold user files such as office docs and media files. Perhaps they will have teh AMD Fusion processor or Intel's up and coming optical CPUs. To increase battery life, laptops and netbooks will come with LED based screens, following suit with HDTVs. I see a local "cloud" device for home/small biz that will be for media backup/file storeage and sharing. It will be more like a user friendly Windows Home Server, that can be preinstalled with a product similar to symantec ghost or veritas. That's the future google should prepare for. The massive internet based cloud is nice, but relies on a network design with too many sigle points that can fail.
@Stustanton;
I agree. The Cloud has something to offer, but so does a dedicated system. The smart money is on a synthesis of the two.
Hmm. I wonder what the anti-trust issues would be if Apple and Google merged….
"(The exception is Apple, which has somehow managed to keep selling premium PCs in a historic recession. Go figure.)"
IS THAT ALL THAT YOU CAN SAY "Go figure." AS YOU TRY TO SUMMARILY DISMISS APPLE'S TREMENDOUS ACHIEVEMENT. YOU HAVE JUST JOINED THE CROWD OF DIMWIT DUMBDITS (THERE ARE PUNDITS AND THERE ARE DUMBDITS) THAT EXIST OUT THERE. YOU ARE CERTAINLY ONE OF THE LATTER. YOU DO NOT DESERVE TO WRITE ABOUT ANYTHING. YOU HAVE NO CREDIBILITY.
The future will include both devices. I see devices like the rumoured Apple tablet, litl http://litl.com/ and Chrome-based portables AND powerful and elegant desktops à la iMac. Power at the office or home to manage and edit your digital content and mobile devices for on-the-go contact and communication.
So…this article assuems that every single consumer "fits" exclusively into one box or the other.
That's kind of like saying the future of transportation is either mass transit or mopeds.
I see a firm place for both. Am I the only one?
The future must offer both, a just-in-time instamatic that gives me my own subset of features with extreme simplicity customized to ME automatically almost without my involvement from a vast array of features and capabilities that are always available to me instantly, without a miserable nickle-and-dime gouge-game screwing me daily. I want it all all all…! And I expect to get it. (We are especially anxious to rid ourselves of the daily screwing.) Sent via my iPhone, using my thumbs.
Bottom Line:
"…The world will keep its healthy appetite for computers with some horsepower."
One device to carry…
Mr. Fortt seems to evince surprise that Apple continues to prosper while rivals like Dell and HP lag. Like too many in the business and tech media–one would think people would learn sooner or later–Mr. Fortt should realize that Apple has brilliantly identified a target market and provided elegant products for them. Go figure, indeed.
I believe in AMD's vision, because for CHROME to work, you would need almost permanent access to the internet, and let's face it that's not even close to remotely possible unless you are willing to pay a nice premium for some 3g/4g wireless access. That's not even considering speeds and latency which will definitely cause some problems depending on what you are doing. So while a CHROME netbook searches for a signal, i'll be on my AMD ultra-thin watchin a movie, playing a game, doing some web development and perhaps by then CHROME will be ready.
Power requirement for a home PC or a laptop can't be nullified unless we find a way out for running most of the desktop / laptop applications currently. Imagining light-weight home PC or laptop or booting of PC like a Television is all cowboy's dreams, in my opinion.