Will Windows 7 boost Apple sales?
Over the past decade, Mac shipments have grown with nearly every new Microsoft release
As if Steve Ballmer didn't have enough to worry about after last week's Sidekick/Microsoft (MSFT) Danger debacle, here's a bar graph that may add to his miseries.
The graphic (shown full-size below the fold) comes out of a report to clients issued Monday by Broadpoint AmTech analyst Brian Marshall. Anticipating the release of Windows 7 next week (Oct. 22), Marshall reviewed Mac sales figures over the past 10 years to analyze the impact of the four previous Windows launches:
- Windows 98 (launched on June 25, 1998)
- Windows 2000 (launched on February 17, 2000)
- Windows XP (launched on October 25, 2001)
- Windows Vista (launched on January 30, 2007)
His findings:
"We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on Apple's (AAPL) hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS. Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have even acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales."
The chart suggests that Vista's well-publicized problems were the real accelerant, providing fodder for more than two years of Get A Mac ads.
[Click to enlarge]
Correlation is not causation, of course, and Marshall is quick to add that "AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."
Still, he thinks that despite Windows 7 — if not because of it — Apple could double its global PC market share from about 4% today to 8% over the next five years.
[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]
To Joe Scott:
Macs cost more still.. Macs do get virus. Macs have security issues, check it out. http://www.infoworld.com/d/mobilize/gone-in-2-minutes-mac-gets-hacked-first-in-contest-676
2minutes.. lol
If Pages was so awesome, why would everyone buy office for their macs?
If you want some software thats cheap and COMPATIBLE with office, try open office. It's completely free.
For audio creation, there is audacity. That is free and powerfull. its also open source.
If you want to create a webpage without coding, their is WebDwarf. http://www.virtualmechanics.com/products/dwarf/.
For hosting your website, you can install IIS which is built in. this allows you to configure your OS – now a SERVER, into a host. There is also apache – freeware hosting if IIS is to complexed for you, or you have xp home.
Uploading to youtube, or facebook. WOW any PC can do this, if you can attach a file to an email, you can upload. This shouldn't be considered a feature at this point, but a standard.
With windows movie maker, you can create menus for your DVDs, although DVD writing support was official in vista.
I've used a Zune just fine on a mac.
to Brian:
Id have to say a mac is easier to upgrade opposed to windows. Example:
if you want that Blue ray player and video card in a windows machine. you have to make sure you have a sata port open for blueray(idk if they got ide), and then a free 5.25inch bay, and last but not least – power for it.
for the video card you need to get 1 to fit the slot you have in your machine – agp? pcie? ..pci? then you have to put it in the slot, screw it down.
now you have to install drivers, nvidia and ati make it dificult with these exe applications that are so confusing with that next button.
or you can pay a tech shop to put it in for you. total cost on low end card – $40, blu ray player – $70, tech shop – $30… total cost is bout $140, high end cards go for as much as you want to spend..
alot of steps in it, for a mac..
you buy a new mac – simple upgrade:-D new features – $1000 lol
Me, im pro PC, maaany reasons. If you love macs then you love them but a few things you should know. Macs uses the same hardware that PCs use. Many people say you cant run .exe on a mac, but their is a way.
Boot camp, buy = yes, you have to buy. windows xp SP2 or newer OS and install it to your mac with bootcamp.
Why would i want windows on my mac? oh there are alot of reasons. TONS of applications – windows only. Macs can not do everything windows can do, but boot camp helps it alot, you are still hardware LIMITED.
it's 4am, don't question my spelling lol
ex ped: I don't question your spelling, but I do question your understanding of what constitutes a Mac virus.
@Joe — You also must be smoking something. Comparing Pages to MS Word? Pages is more like the word processor that comes with MS Works — it does the job, but lacking all the extra features. Same with Numbers and Excel. The MS programs are more powerful. Ask all the people who use Macs for professional uses and still shell out for MS Office.
iLife standard, yes. But who says everyone wants built in software? If I had a Mac, that would be the first thing to get uninstalled. The only software that goes to my computer would be the one *I* want, not what Apple/Dell/HP wants me to have. iTunes, schmeeTunes — Winamp is a better, less intrusive player. And Firefox kicks Safari's butt any day with all the extensions you can get for it.
Cost of upgrades? MS may cost more for the OS, but at least you can go from XP to Win 7 for the same price. If you go from older than Leopard, it WON'T cost $29, you have to buy the full upgrade. And pity those on non-Intel Macs, they got nothing!
Plus, when you add all the different upgrades that have been released since the first OS X… what's that, like more than $500 total? From XP to Vista to Win 7, far less than that.
Virus protection? You can get them for FREE, and good. Avast and AVG are two of the best ones out there. And please beating on the viruse dead horse. Go search on Google for "Apple vulnerabilities", and you'll find lots of reports about how many patches OS X have had to keep malicious people from gaining control of your computer. No virus needed.
And the hardware thing still stands. Try doing all that I mentioned on an iMac, then get back to me. 
I have been a PC user since DOS and Windows 3.1. I have never, ever had any issues with any version of windows, not 95, 98, NT, 2000, XP or Vista.
When APPLE gets the market share that windows has, and business shares that windows has, we'll see what happens to it's OS with malware and viruses.
That being said, I wont deny that apple has one beautiful hardware. And even I'm looking at buying a Macbook pro. But I will surely be running windows for the real world (work) and possibly take a stab at the new OS for home.
i find it funny that all the Microsoft junkies like to bash the mac for it's cost. So lets get a few things straight…
The Mac may be more expensive right of the bat yes, but lets take a look at the cost of their software. iWork costs $80 and with that you get pages, the equivalent of Microsoft Word, Keynote, the equivalent of powerpoint,and Numbers which is the equivalent of excel. All these programs are also fully compatible with their Microsoft counterparts. These three programs also supply you with more bang for your buck, iWork comes with an online publishing site to upload your work. The Microsoft Counterpart to this, Microsoft Office, costs around $120. Thats a $40 difference.
Then there's iLife, which comes STANDARD on all Mac's and only costs $80 to get on older Mac's. This gives you the Garage Band music recording and editing software, Microsoft doesn't have their own version of this software, iMovie which allows you to edit and make high quality videos then upload them directly from the program to your favorite video sharing sites such as youtube as well as iTunes. iWeb which allows you to create your own web page then publish it directly to the internet (no code writing is done what so ever), iDVD which lets you make Major Motion Picture quality DVD's complete with menu screen, and iPhoto which is a simple to use photo storing and editing program that lets you store your photos, edit the them with simple to use tools, then upload them to popular social networking sites such as Facebook and flickr. Similar programs that give you around half the functionality will cost you around $100 each. Microsoft doesn't offer their own version of many of these products with the exception of Movie Maker.
Then theres the OS upgrades. To upgrade from windows Vista to Windows 7, it will cost you a kingly fee of $120. To upgrade from Leopard to Snow Leopard on a Mac, it will only cost you $29 dollars at most!!!!!
Then of course theres virus protection software which is basically required on PC's unless you like having your system over run by hundreds of viruses and other malware. Mac's don't require this software at all due to the simple fact that MAC'S DON'T GET VIRUSES!!!
So in the end, it may cost more to buy the Mac, but think of all the money your gonna save with the software you need to run your Mac. Then look at the cost of the software costs for a PC.
Then theres the issue of "Anti-Compettitivness" in other software providers. You are not given the option of Internet Explorer on a Mac because Microsoft doesn't make a version for it. You can't use Zune on a Mac because the Software Microsoft uses for the Zune doesn't support Mac. So don't complain that "other companies are being anti-competition" when your the one causing it.
P.S. He wasn't talking about upgrading the hardware, he was talking bout upgrading the OS
@Brian: "Upgrading a Windows machine is nowhere near as easy as upgrading a Mac." Dude, what the heck are you smoking?
Take an iMac and a Mac mini. Try adding a second extra hard drive for extra storage, or better yet, to use RAID. Or swapping video cards for better models. Or replacing the built-in sound with a better solution. Try adding a BluRay burner for better video and larger safe storage.
Oh, yes, you have to go with a Mac Pro! Meanwhile, a sub-$1000 PC can do all that, and more.
And you think you're so smart calling it Windoze. I guess to make your little, addled brain feel better.
And don't believe for one second that there are no vulnerabilities on OS X. Just recently Apple patched 12 of them that would had allowed a hacker to take control. You may not get viruses, but your machine still can still be compromised.
Upgrading a Windows machine is nowhere near as easy as upgrading a Mac. This is why it's very rare for people to upgrade their generic Windows machines. They usually just buy new hardware with the OS already on it. They never have anything remotely as compelling as Mac, so as more people go to buy hardware, they buy the Mac hardware instead.
It runs anything, not just WIndoze and geeky Unix distros, so it's the safest bet. Also, you know you are getting good hardware that is going to be reliable and even worth something in a few years (imagine that). On top of it all, it's not significantly more expensive than your PC if you actually buy a well equipped one. They have support people you can actually go in an talk with.
I will never go back to PC, there is no comparison.
>Besides, if Apple gets a larger market share then the
>people who create all the malware will see a benefit to
>developing programs to exploit Apple as they have a
>larger base to attack with their programs.
This is a fairly tale invented by the FUD meisters at Microsoft. It is by no means true. Hackers develop malware for Windows because it's incredibly easy. Microsoft leaves the door open, Apple does not.
You don't clearly label your charts. I assume it shows Apple hardware sales, or maybe Mac sales. Or is it Dell? Just asking
ex ped: Mac shipments, as it says in the headline. The chart is Broadpoint's, but the labels (notebook and desktop) are a hint.
You have to have a lot of imagination to see a relationship between Apple sales and Windows launches from this graph. Mac sales collapsed a few months after Windows 95 launched mainly because of a series of strategic blunders by Apple leading to a massive inventory of unsaleable machines and too few of the models customers wanted. At the time "analysts" claimed Windows 95 had caused Mac sales to collapse. Backdate the graph to 1995 and the current dodgy hypothesis completely falls apart. The main variable in how well Apple does is not what Microsoft is doing, it's what Apple is doing. Right now, Apple is riding a wave because of their very successful iPod and iPhone lines that are boosting their image and sales of other lines. That looks likely to continue for some time. The only effect Windows 7 will have is that if it's as good as some reviewers claim, Apple will be under pressure to work harder to stay ahead of the game. Good all round.
It's probably more accurate to just acknowledge that the Mac has steadily been increasing in popularity, regardless of what Microsoft does. Microsoft has had a few relatively solid releases during this timeframe, but in the end, the Mac offers a better overall experience. There was a dip for the Mac sales when they switched major platforms (from OS 9 to OS X). However, as OS X matured, sales have grown proportionally.
When I first got Mac two years ago I also got VMWare Fusion and a copy of XP because I was concerned about how I would survive without Windows apps.
The truth is that I only used XP on Mac before I discovered the ecosystem of Mac-only applications which completely replaced what I used to use under Windows. I haven't run XP on Mac for more than a year now and considering clearing it from the disk to get some free space for HD editing.
The genius of bringing XP on Mac is that it give users enough time to adopt to Mac world before ditching XP and its apps altogether
You know, it's probably more likely that Apple's sales increased because they released new computers and/or upgraded their OS about the same time, than it is that Micro$lop had anything to do with it. For instance, it is widely rumored that Apple has new Minis, Macbooks, iMacs, and other goodies all boxed up and waiting in the wings to make their entrance at just the right moment this season. I would guess that right moment to be close to the release of Win 7. The best PC to run Win 7 is probably a Mac, anyway. My Macbook Pro literally screams with Win XP Pro running in Parallels Desktop 4 Virtual Mode. I'll skip Vista entirely and just move to Win 7 when my company says it's compatible with our software.
Well, I am going to change to a Macbook pro soon. So with the launch of Windows 7, i hope macbook gets cheaper! It's really expensive compared to a notebooks from dell. mygoogle sniper review
Yes, Apple sales are boosted by Windows release. It all makes sense! Did you know that global warming is increasing because there are less pirates too?
@james
Everyone doesn't have that problem. Nothing works 100% of the time. As for me, I don't have that problem & haven't had that problem. Im running 10.6.1
of course coming from Microsuck, how can you be surprise? I will raise you one…
http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20091012/danger-will-robinson-do-not-approach-the-sidekick/
I've switched to MacBook pro 4 months ago – and cannot be happier. No more Dell or HP for me (had 6 of them)
I don't get this Vista bashing. I have it, it works fine.
I've never had any problems with any Windows product. Probably because I dont do stupid things like downloading Kazaa or whatever the current program out there that invites viruses and spyware that cause computers to slow down and fail.
If you are in 90%+ of all households, how many of those users know nothing about computing other than how to post on a blog their anger about stuff they dont understand?
Besides, if Apple gets a larger market share then the people who create all the malware will see a benefit to developing programs to exploit Apple as they have a larger base to attack with their programs.
I have been Windoz free for over 2 years using a Linux release from Mandriva. Never been happier. Few issues, over 16.000 software titles a click a way. I have done things with graphics that would have cost me $$$$$$$ to buy in MS stuff. It's not such a geeky OS as it used to be. In fact, I have a USB network device that MS requires the driver install. With Mandriva, I just plug it in and go. The OS figures it out, no extra driver to install. And I can run some MS apps, if I want (but why??). Years ago I began with an Apple IIc that had integrated word processor, spreadsheet and database with dropdown menus. MS was just command lines. What a joke I thought. It's still a joke, but with a chokehold on the mainstream computer market. Apple is great if you have the big bucks to spend. I prefer to buy $45 white boxes and put in my free OS (well, I do support the cause for $75 a year) with two complete updates (that's a new version of the OS) a year. Open source is the way for me….
Someone needs to review their data analysis skills: In the quarter following Microsoft's releases, Mac sales decreased EVERY time. By the time the releases get into the mainstream it looks like they are affecting Apple's sales.
ex ped: Sales decreased in the quarter following Windows releases, and then they increased in subsequent quarters. I suspect that's why Marshall called it a "delayed accelerant."
I just bought a Macbook Pro. I wish I went to Mac years ago. My Vista home computer and laptop both run like dogs and they are 2 years and less than 1 year old respectively. It would be great if Windows 7 delivered, but we are all still waiting for that day.
I still have to use DOS 6.2, Windows 3.1, Windows XP, Solaris, and OS 10.6 (Apple Snow Leopard). I have used almost every desktop operating system since the late 80's and Apple has always been the easiest to use, most productive, least corrupted, and most easily maintained of them all. Microsoft Windows 7 looks like a good release, but they have had good operating systems in the past too.
I just don't see any reason that Apple will not stay ahead of them. Apple has the most resources, complete control of hardware, Open source, and a visionary leadership that takes them where no other tech company has gone before. Their ability to take risks and create new products and markets is unmatched. That is why their market share has grown, not because of some other operating system release.
The new Windows 7 runs smoothly and is EXCELLENT. Mac's are just not worth the money. What exactly is the love affair with the Mac's? Build your own PC and be happy, wait for the win7 and be awed.
I have a 4 year old HP which runs like a dog. Every time I get an auto update from MS, the system deteriorates even more.
I made a mistake 2 years ago buying another Windows based system.
I don't blame HP, it's all the garbage from MS.
So as MS sales fall, so will HP, Dell, etc. Conviction by association.
I will buy a IMac before the end of the year. I am sure I'll be very happy with my decision.
Let Apple do a clean install for you…
http://www.engadget.com/2009/10/12/apple-aware-of-snow-leopard-that-bug-kills-data-is-working-on-a/
That's at least one reason to worry about switching from a PC to a MAC. It goes both ways, I know people that switched and came back and people who switched and stayed gone. In the end for now, more stuff still works with the PC than the Mac PC err… I mean just Mac…
The fact that Windows XP, a nearly 10-year old operating system, is in use at twice the level of Vista is an indicator of what will drive the migration to Mac. As customers face inevitable hardware upgrades, an increasing number will choose to switch.
Add to this point that the Apple ecosystem has dramatically increased during the past 5 years. iPhone and iPod touch, for instance, now account for twice as many users as do all Mac users combined. iTunes has become a compelling interface for Apple products. The entire range of software available to Mac is getting better every day, and not only for the creative types who were the original Mac users.
As people switch from newspapers, cable TV, and radio to spend more time on their computers, they will gravitate toward the ecosystem, and Apple has it underway.
I predict a whole lot more than 8% market share in 5 years. Have a look at Microsoft and Apple financial performance and you may understand why this will be the case. One is using cash to prop up share price through stock buybacks; the other has a cash gusher unlike anything else in the tech world.
Amazing to think that Apple could still be on the upswing. For 10+ years the analysts have been predicting the end of Apple's bull run, but the streak continues. With Apps like iZinger, MadLipz and FlashCardz continuing to sell strongly on the iTunes store, it's no wonder profits continue to rise!
That’s such a load of nonsense, Philip seems to succumb to the “field” he claims to write outside-of…
With “appropriate” methodology and the “right” time-frame, it is possible to prove any causal correlation. Let's try the following correlation IN THE PAST 10 YEARS:
1. Wars and Apple hardware sales?
2. US presidential elections and Apple hardware sales?
3. Come to think of it, ANY presidential (or PTA) elections and Apple hardware sales?
4. World population and Apple hardware sales?
Wow, perfect correlation.
Now try to correlate this with Windows 1, 2 and 3.1 say 20 years back. Err, strange.
Guys, I don't understand why there's constant bickering between Mac and PC users? It always involves some vicious comparison between apps; security etc between the two. (I had a personal experience with my friend's girlfriend and she works for MS)
I think people should stop making these silly comparisons, because you are talking two OS designed for very different purposes.
I use Window XP at work, because it is suited for mass data processing and number crunching.
At home I use iMac cos it is used to arrange my lifestyles (photo; music; web browsing; video editing etc)
For me, the reason I choose Mac for home is because I want to look at something different when I get home rather than feeling working on office pc again.
User "friendlyness" , I don't think it's fair to compare the two because all of us have some degree of computer literacy and we tend to find apps we use daily easier than the apps we never use. I gave me parents (both are 70 yr's old) two OS, they find both OS hard to use because they never used computers in their life.
Finally, whether you are a die hard pc fan or not, iMac does look good sitting on the table and that is what Apple good at, they invest more in hardware design than its peers, by that I mean…the looks of the pc casing; Magic Mouse; keyboard etc. and this allow them to charge premium price for it because it's a eye candy piece of hardware.