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Apple's 2009 earnings up nearly 44% under new accounting rules – analyst


How much will Apple's (AAPL) reported earnings be affected by the new accounting rules approved Wednesday?

A lot, says Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster.

In a note to clients issued early Thursday, Munster offered his estimated earnings per share under the new and old rules for fiscal years 2009 (which ends in two days) and 2010:

  • 2009 EPS: $8.21, up from $5.71  — a 43.8% increase
  • 2010 EPS: $8.90, up from $6.00  — a 48% increase

Apple wouldn't be required to switch to the new accounting method until Dec. 2010, but Munster expects the company will start as soon as possible, probably with the new fiscal year that begins next week.

"While this has been expected for the last month, we believe this will be a positive for shares of AAPL," he wrote, before raising his price target to $235 from $186.

Of course it's possible that the impact of the rule changes have already been factored into Apple's share price. The stock closed Wednesday at $185.50, having soared 137% over the past eight months. The stock is up more than 10% since Aug. 31, when Munster first reported that the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) task force was considering the rule changes.

What are the new accounting rules? Munster does a pretty good job of explaining them:

He writes:

"Before yesterday's ruling, any product that offered free upgrades to software and services installed on a device like an iPhone required subscription accounting (revenue deferred over 8 quarters in the case of the iPhone and Apple TV). However, the vast majority of the value of the device was realized at the time of purchase. While the value at the time of purchase as a percentage of the purchase price is debatable, we believe about 90% of the value of an iPhone is realized at the time of purchase. Under the previous rules, Apple was only allowed to recognize 12.5% (1/8th) of the revenue from each sale; under the new rules, the percentage will be decided on a case-by-case basis for each given product."

That case-by-case factor means that Apple's earnings under the new generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) won't be exactly the same as the non-GAAP earnings it's been reporting (alongside GAAP earnings; see chart below) for the past year — but they will be a lot closer. Under the previous accounting rules, says Munster, there was about a 35% difference between the two. Under the new rules, he expects the difference to be closer to 5%.

These and other issues related to the accounting changes are likely to be hot topics of discussion at Apple's next earnings call with analysts, sometime in October.

Below: A chart of GAAP vs. non-GAAP earnings for Apple's third fiscal quarter, courtesy of Kaufman Bros.' Shaw Wu:

Source: Kaufman Bros.

Source: Kaufman Bros.

See also:

I guess there is just no teaching stupid other than to say; Yes,we did go to the moon in 69. Yes, your mother did drop you when you were young. And no, that is not your father

Posted By Dave: September 25, 2009 2:36 PM

Wow, such investor excitement! I can see how this ruling is kicking the share price into overdrive!!

Uhh, eventually.

Posted By iphonerulez, Brooklyn, New York: September 24, 2009 12:38 PM

@Dave, as others have noted, your conclusion that this has anything to do with AT&T's subsidy is nonsense. They were deferring revenue before the subsidy when the iPhone launched. Remember when the phone was $500 and $600? Yes, that was pre-subsidy and Apple was deferring revenue.

If AT&T were to negotiate a contract without subsidy, then the price to the consumer would reflect the true retail price, just as it did originally.

And, your hypothetical, doesn't allow for unit sales growth nor bill of goods to go down.

Posted By KenC, Gardiner, Maine: September 24, 2009 12:19 PM

@RK, This will not lower LT earnings. That's nonsense. As Apple added deferred revenues, or subscription accounting, the net result is a smoothing of earnings; however, in the transitional period of the first few years, GAAP will be catching up to non-GAAP. They would eventually be very close to each other.

Why this has affected Apple, is because it's incredibly rare for a company to have added a new product line that requires subscription accounting that is such a large proportion of their revenue and earnings.

Posted By KenC, Gardiner, Maine: September 24, 2009 12:14 PM

PED, I'm not sure why you need to credit Kaufman Bros for a data table, that comes straight from Apple's earnings press release. Kaufman, itself, cites its source as Apple data, and adds in the word "estimates". The only estimate seems to be taxes, but that could have been gleaned by looking at the full 10Q.

ex ped: True, but without credit it might have seemed as if I were trying to pass if off as my work

Posted By KenC, Gardiner, Maine: September 24, 2009 12:04 PM

Sacto Joe, Danny Pittsburgh, San Mateo guy, Billy Boston – where is everybody? I know you didn't like hearing it when I was saying it but did you short AAPL yesterday at 188 like I told you last week? You'd have made 5 pts. already…and there's more to come. But take your quick trade off the table if you don't like jilting Stevie Jobs. Just remember though. He'd do it to you in a Silicon second. By the way, looks like the GAAP change is already baked into the cake so the slow pull of sales to other (less worthy) devices and gradual contracting of margins for AAPL will commence next quarter. So, if you can find the evil within yourself to make money on the mighty AAPL then by all means keep your shorts on (pun intended) until year end when AAPL is below 160. At that time, I'll let you know what's what. In the meantime, can anyone tell the Giants how to score inside the Red Zone? It's really getting annoying now.

Posted By Tony Esposito NY, NY: September 24, 2009 10:57 AM

How is GAAP vs. non-GAAP going to change AT&T's willingness to pay Apple a subsidy. You are WRONG. Check your facts or skewed logic.

Posted By Dave, Boston, Ma.: September 24, 2009 10:24 AM

The new reporting rules just past by the FASB will be GAAP. It is simply what is called a "change in accounting principle" in the accounting industry and will be footnoted in the financials of all the entities that change their way of accounting for these items. And to Davw in Boston, check your facts. The primary driver in Apples revenue bump with the accounting change is in fact the treatment of the "per phone" subsidy received from AT&T.

Posted By Dave, Akron Ohio: September 24, 2009 10:10 AM

@Dave, Akron Ohio
"Eventually that subsidy will either be reduced or go away when the contract is renegotiated."
There is no connection with AT&T subsidy and Apple's earnings whether they are GAAP or non-GAAP. There may be a connection if Apple uses Verizon or other telecoms. I believe that your comment is WRONG.

Posted By Davw, Boston, Ma.: September 24, 2009 9:50 AM

Well, if Gene Munster says it, then it must be true! :P

Posted By Joe, Hoboken NJ: September 24, 2009 9:42 AM

It will give a short term boost to the earnings however it will also lower the long term earnings. Another effect will be the volatility in the long run as at present revenue from subscriptions get smoothed out evenly over eight quarters.

Posted By RK, Windsor, Ontario: September 24, 2009 9:37 AM

Since Apple's past reporting was GAAP, will it's new reporting format (non GAAP in the past) be called GAAP or Non GAAP ?

Posted By ny: September 24, 2009 9:01 AM

Apple is obviously the primarily beneficiary of this change in accounting rules. And the main cause is their incredible fortune at getting AT&T to pay them an incredible subsidy. And the change does support an increase in market value. But does it support the market price in the long term. Eventually that subsidy will either be reduced or go away when the contract is renegotiated. At that time quarterly revenues decrease and the bottom line begins to stagnate. I wonder if at that point in time someone might be wishing they had kept the subscription accounting to help prop up the revenue numbers?

Posted By Dave, Akron Ohio: September 24, 2009 8:47 AM

I think PED hasn't mixed up the the GAAP vs non-GAAP. Apple has been reporting unofficial non-GAAP results in addition to GAAP results to better give color on real sales and revenue. The article is saying going forward the official reported revenue will be closer to the non-GAAP results that had also been reported.

Posted By dong, Boston MA: September 24, 2009 8:39 AM

Wow – with awesome Apps on the iTunes store like iZinger and MadLipz it's no wonder that Apple profit is soaring!

Posted By Rick, Wilmington, NC: September 24, 2009 8:21 AM

You've got a mixup in you article:

"the new generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) won't be exactly the same as the non-GAAP earnings it's been reporting for the past year "

The current generally accepted accounting principles until the ruling have been GAAP NOT non- GAAP

ex ped: Apple has been reporting GAAP earnings all along. They started reporting non-GAAP earnings, alongside the GAAP earnings, starting last year. Will edit the post to clarify.

Posted By tom: September 24, 2009 8:12 AM
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Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Steve Jobs, goes the old joke at Apple, is surrounded by a reality distortion field; get too close and you believe what he's saying. Apple has made believers out of millions of customers — and made a lot of investors rich — but Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple – and watching Steve Jobs operate — since 1982.
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