Apple 2.0

Mac news from outside the reality distortion field

Apple's tablet stoppeth one of five


Rendering: Piper Jaffray

Rendering: Piper Jaffray

Coleridge's Ancient Mariner had nothing on Apple's (AAPL) much-rumored tablet.

Without even a prototype — like Microsoft's (MSFT) — to look at, 21% of 3,100 respondents in a RBC Capital/ChangeWave survey said they'd be interested in buying an Apple tablet computer in the $500 to $700 price range. That's better than the 9% who said they would be interested in buying the original iPhone in an April 2007 survey — after Steve Jobs had unveiled it, but before it had been released.

"The promising early interest illustrates the market opportunity for a Mac-based Tablet," writes RBC analyst Mike Abramsky in a Wednesday morning note to clients.

Among the other findings in the survey:

  • 25% of respondents bought a Mac laptop in the last 90 days, up from 18% in July
  • 17% bought a Mac desktop in the last 90 days, up from 12% in April.
  • 30% of 4,200 respondents in a separate survey already had an iPhone, up from 20% in June

It should be noted that respondents to ChangeWave surveys tend to be early adopters. They are drawn, according the ChangeWave Alliance website, from "a worldwide group of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals … who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change."

Given what he calls the "surging Mac and iPhone sales momentum," Abramsky has raised his Apple price target to $250. Shares opened Wednesday at $185.35 and were up 3.7 points (2%) in mid-afternoon trading.

Put the phone in the tablet… and give me "wireless, cable like TV" and a kindle device in there while your at it – then you've got something… and make it waterproof so i can cover my head during a rain storm, or use it as a coaster for adult drinks…

PS – I call dibbs on all patent and future development rights… :)

Posted By b50more, worcester, MA: September 25, 2009 8:11 AM

Apple does not always deliver perfect results. Take the Snow Leopard upgrade–promoted as "Exchange Ready", the system isn't really compatible with most versions of Exchange other than the latest version. I bought SL specifically to use Mail with Exchange. No dice. Do a little digging and find that this is not an unusual problem. Yeah, you can say that I should have more modern software. OR, you could say that it is "Exchange 2007 Ready" and be a little more open.

However, I run a biotech company and use a Mac. I find that I can do more with the standard programs for marketing and design. Using Creative Suite on a Mac is fabulous. But I still run Parallels to have my windows programs at the ready, including QuickBooks (which is ridiculously inferior for the Mac). Until the software industry commits to making programs EQUIVALENT on Mac and PC then there's no choice but to use both.

I look at it this way…I can make my Mac into a PC through Parallels but I can't make my PC into a Mac. That's why I switched.

Regarding the tablet–think road warrior. My iPhone is great, but I can't really use it as a hard drive. I would love to be able to copy a folder of documents and presentations on it and just travel with the phone. A larger screen lets you watch movies, more space (hopefully) means longer battery life, and my personal hope would be for Apple to consider an HDMI port allowing you to use the tablet to hook into a TV or projector.

Give it enough memory to run iWork and a battery which lasts a cross country flight and I'm in.

Posted By Alechemist, Chapel Hill, NC: September 24, 2009 10:25 AM

It amazes me, the hype, the misinformation, and how people are willing to adopt the unknown. Years ago back in the days when computers were not something in every home there as the rumor of the chamelion computer. It would run apple and ibm….. an amazing device, hmmmm that was in the early 80's? someone look at pc magazines archive. yet hear we are talking about a tablet that does not exist and looking at a rendering….. So we have a sexy apple that doesn't exist and still from microsoft operating systems that , well don't work consistently except for there fixes that seem to upload flawlessly. What is wrong with the public, except bad programming and non existant computers. Anyone want to buy a bridge?

Posted By Mark, Newbugh NY: September 23, 2009 9:40 PM

"Apple is not interested in dominating the computer world" Kevin from Austin says.

But Apple worshippers do. BTW, it may just happen, really (look at music players, digital music sales, smartphones), which will give many a worshipper a serious head-splitting dissonance – as many are closet anti-capitalist contrarians that absolutly must support who they perceive as the underdog…

Posted By asher: September 23, 2009 7:06 PM

Apple is not interested in dominating the computer world. Their interest when it comes to computers is the techie so that they will buy their newest greatest toy. I use a pc so that i can afford every newest greatest gadget Apple comes out with. Dominate, no, innovate, yes.

Posted By kevin, austin,: September 23, 2009 4:51 PM

Matt, you should know by now that nobody actually "reads" the articles. They already know what they're going to say as soon as they see the words Mac, Windows, iPhone, Linux, etc.

Posted By Greg, Plainfield, NJ: September 23, 2009 4:25 PM

Microsoft makes my life kushy and I am happy about that. I manage a 98% Windows shop and it really is a nice job and Windows is not Windows ME people, so get a clue. You people remind me of a broken record that started skipping when Windows ME was out. Get with the times and just be a confident computer user that doesn't need everyone else to be just like you. I know imitation is the greatest form of flattery, but come on people its a computer, no need to get all steamed up because someone trashed your beloved computer. Mine is better than yours and your so dumb because you don't switch to my bestest brand name computer. Please its like child's play with you people.

Posted By Anonymous: September 23, 2009 4:00 PM

to Tony from LA
"advanced users prefer PC"
in case you and others do not know, Apple OS is based on UNIX. (~~similar to linux) UNIX used to be the high altar for the computer techies. the best there is. this means Apple OS based on UNIX has been around for a very long time and well proven in the big buisness corporate world of computers. it's only time until big business will get rid of their microsoft clunkers and go back to a spiffed up UNIX called APPLE-OS

Posted By steve, miami, FL: September 23, 2009 3:41 PM

Regarding the tablet rumors, here is my hypothesis:

How big is this rumored tablet ?

Apple could make a mini-tablet with a display surface twice as big as the iTouch (41% longer and 41% wider)
as well as a tablet with a display surface the size of a 8.5 x 11 sheet of paper.

Why not create a series of sizes for displaying different information requirements ?

Apple does not need to sell millions of same-size tablets each to make a successful product.

Here is one niche:

Steve Jobs spent a lot of time recently studying his medical ailment, then had surgery, then spent a lot of time recuperating.

The doctors presented a lot of information to him, and there is a lot of electronic equipment used in the operating room.

None of of the medical equipment is made by Apple. But I betcha Steve Jobs wants to have Apple technology used in the medical field for more than just desktop computers.

The information the patient needs and the medical professionals need can be displayed on Apple hardware, and what portable product does Apple make that can display large amounts of medical information easily?

Not the iPhone or iPod, the displays are too small. A tablet will have a larger display for showing medical photos, xrays, blood-work results, all without scrolling.

The biggest problem would be wireless data transfer, due to the many medical devices already present in a hospital and the need to limit Radio-Frequency Interference.

Turn the tablet over and with solar cells on its back exposed to room lighting a little bit of recharging can take place while the tablet is not in use.

For a patient confined to a bed, a tablet would make a great video display for watching movies or videos.

Powering the display will be the biggest hurdle, the weight of the tablet will increase rapidly for the batteries if it has to be used without recharging for at least 4 hours.

Posted By Tony Smit, Austin TX: September 23, 2009 3:37 PM

@Tony, you are generalizing a whole lot. Apple can do almost all of what PC does (don't forget, you can get Apple to run XP.) On the other hand, software written for Apple will likely not run on PC. Also Mac buyers look for something different.

The link you posted only shows the products that consumers at that time did not show interest. You do understand that through failures, you achieve success. If anything, we should be proud of the efforts they made. I'm sure Apple learned a lot from those efforts.

Finally, regarding your iPhone crashing? I only find my iphone quit out certain programs I downloaded from the app store. Occasionally, I do get stock apps throw me back out to the main screen. I would only term "crash" as something you'd have to reboot to resolve, which I rarely do.

Posted By Kevin, Carlsbad, CA: September 23, 2009 2:46 PM

just get a clue microsoft supporters.
look at the facts and the reality of things.
PC makers keep lowereing their prices to move products with very low margins.
Apple charges more with high profit margins and continues to sell, with a stock price going way way up, while PC makers and microsoft stock going nowhere.
so who we shud believe. the emotional microsoft nerds posting here or the soaring market value of Apple as millions of investors decided it's worth a lot more.

Posted By matt, san jose, CA: September 23, 2009 2:43 PM

techie type people hate Apple. because average computer users who use computers as a tool, and choose Apple, they don't need the techies. techies are people, they want to be needed and respected.

Posted By joe, LA, CA: September 23, 2009 2:38 PM

If you are just getting into Personal Computing, then yes, a Mac is for you since they are more idiot proof. If you are an advanced user, then a PC may be better for you. The real question you should ask yourself is…What can I do on a Mac that I can't do on a PC? Then ask yourself, what can I do on a PC that I can't do on a Mac? Review the list, make a decision. It depends what you are going to use it for. For the average American, a Mac is probably a better fit. The average American isn't very bright unfortunately. I own an iPhone and I've had it crash quite a few times but I deal with it. Sound familiar? Apple delivers products that always exceed expectations? I think not…

http://news.digitaltrends.com/feature/134/apple-s-worst-products-and-biggest-failures

Posted By Tony, Los Angeles CA: September 23, 2009 1:41 PM

Well thats all well and good, but I would bet that after seeing the Microsoft tablet that for real work scenarios and such that the Microsoft tablet will be the one of choice. I don't see a Mac tablet creating much buzz since they don't really have much of a place in corporate America.
http://gizmodo.com/5365299/courier-first-details-of-microsofts-secret-tablet

Posted By Anonymous: September 23, 2009 1:34 PM

Yup, prospective tablet users are counting on the Apple branding as their motives for buying an Apple tablet, sight unseen. That's what happens when you have a good track record of delivering good products and reliable customer support. Got any problems? Need some help? Run right down to your local Apple store and talk to a Genius. I think the tablet would have more appeal to the general population than it would to tech-heads. Tech-heads are too jaded about any product that has wide-spread commercial appeal.

Anyway, the tablet is going to have the iTunes Store delivering huge amounts of multimedia content delivery with 100,000,000 credit card using customers to keep the content flowing. I'm really counting on the education sector to start using Apple tablets. If the teens like the Touch, they'll happily use the touch-based tablet. So regardless what the naysayers say about the tablet not being a success, I think they are wrong. Content will be the driving force behind the Apple tablet as it was with the iPod and iPhone. Apple has everything in place to make the tablet a success.

Maybe Apple is only stopping one in five individuals (20%) but considering Apple has less than a 10% marketshare it appears that Apple will have room to grow a tablet base.

Posted By iphonerulez, Brooklyn, New York: September 23, 2009 1:23 PM

@Caleb, a survey need not be representative of the general population. It depends on what the survey wants to achieve. The article already mentioned the sample base, so it should be clear to the reader.

@RinCA, battery life is non-issue since (a) people replace cell phones faster than the battery's end of life; and (b) many kits are available for DIY'ers for a fraction of the cost.

@Hiram, such a survey is not ridiculous at all. The survey cost is next-to-nothing compared to real investment dollars thrown at such a huge undertaking. Wouldn't you want to know roughly what the outcome is before you sink in your life savings?

Posted By Kevin, Carlsbad, CA: September 23, 2009 1:18 PM

a new poll just came out: would you buy a bag of leaves with the apple logo on it, sight unseen?

30% are interested, up from 29% two days ago.

Posted By BILL Austin TX: September 23, 2009 1:16 PM

it's the great brand appeal !!! you microsoft simpletons… Apple is a company that delivers on products that always exceeds expectations. as opposed to the flops after flops coming out my microsoft. (example: no one real techie ever loads anything coming out of microsoft for almost ayear after it's out, because they don't trust it.) Apple has been consistently on the mark, and that is why people will buy a product that is not even announced. get it !!! many of you are jealous/zealous microsoft cry-babies, because you don't want to face your failures. our compan switched to MACs 2 years ago. we paid more to start with than we would have buying cheap PCs. but over 2 years we more than covered the costs by cutting the IT support by 50% 1st year and now it's down to 30% of what it was, without all these snooty microsoft IT geeks sneering at us everytime our crappy PCs clunked out. and since we're on the road (sales) iPhone has been a great tool, no problems whatsoever. get off that battery rumor folks. with 11 iPhones for 1.5 years none of us had to change a battery.
and yes we will by the tablets as soon as they come out. we were very sour on the microsoft experience.(as you can tell already…

Posted By Jim, Nebraska: September 23, 2009 1:00 PM

Did anyone pay attention to the point of this article? The point is that they surveyed the same group twice, once for the iPhone (one of the most successful products ever built) and now for the tablet, and the excitement around the tablet is greater than an extremely successful product in the iPhone. Apple will bring this to market when its ready and it will be a huge success because this is what Apple does. Why people continue to bash and doubt an unbelievably successful company does not make sense to me.

Posted By Matt, NY, NY: September 23, 2009 12:50 PM

@TruthSeeker – what a troll. I too have work to do and have used Apple machines to do them in a very lucrative engineering career. And no – I don't wear a hat backwards or have my pants around my knees. What a joke…

Posted By Trevor, Indy, IN: September 23, 2009 12:49 PM

@TruthSeeker

I agree with your comments about the Macs, but not the iPhone. I struggled for years with multiple flavors of Windows Mobile phones – then I switched to an iPhone; the dang thing "just works" and much better than the current incarnation of WM6. Full browser, HTML email, WiFi. I do miss the scroll wheel (two handed scrolling is a PITA) but otherwise it is far better than any other PDA phone I have used.

Posted By Paul, Northeast, PA: September 23, 2009 12:44 PM

Based on what has been written previously on the spec's surrounding this product it is worthless unless you want to browse the net, watch videos and listen to music. There is no business application for this. It shouldn't even be called a tablet "computer". Hey how about calling it an Ipad. no better functionally than a netbook.

Posted By Dave, Akron Ohio: September 23, 2009 12:41 PM

Wouldn't touch an Apple toy. I have work to do. But I suppose it will appeal to people with their hats on backwards and their pants around their knees.

Posted By TruthSeeker, St. George, Utah: September 23, 2009 12:28 PM

The Modbook Mac Tablet has been a real, shipping product for over 1 year now.

http://eshop.macsales.com/shop/Modbook

Posted By Larry, Woodstock IL: September 23, 2009 12:10 PM

GENTLEMEN, 10 YRS AGO APPLE AND RIMM WERE 2 STOCKS I FELT WOULD GO DOWN AND I WOULD GET IT CHEAP.
FORTUNITLY, I CHANGED MY THINKING AFTER LOOSING A LOT OF MONEY(GELT).
TODAY WE SEE APPLE INAVATIVENESS AS NOT ONLY "THE PRODUCT, WITH RIMM TO HAVE, BUT THEY ARE THE "IN"
PRODUCTS LIKE GUCCI, COACH, TO SHOW YOUR REAL COOL AND A TREND SETTER.
PEOPLE ALWAYS ASK IF ITS THE "I PHONE" OR THE MACBOOK OR THE "I POD". PEOPLE CANT STOP BUT ALWAYS ASK HOW IT WORKS AND IF I LIKE THEM, AND I SAY YES,YES,YES, "I CANT WAIT FOR THE "TABLET", TO BE ABLE FOR MY WIFE AND I TO PUT OUR COMPUTER IN MY JACKET, AND POCKET BOOK, TO TAKE WITH ME EVERY WHERE AS WELL.

Posted By NORMAN FROM COLUMBUS,OHIO: September 23, 2009 12:09 PM

I don't see the relevance here. The group sampled doesn't represent the general population.

Is anyone really surprised that a good portion of tech heads are interested in a new Apple product?

They might as well have gone to the Apple store and polled people there. Then they could present some really attention grabbing statistics.

Posted By Caleb, San Jose CA: September 23, 2009 11:48 AM

They should ask the respondents who bought the iPhone when it first came out, how they felt after receiving their first months phone bill and finding out the cost to replace the battery(which has an expected life span of 1 year).

Posted By RinCA, Cupertino CA: September 23, 2009 11:32 AM

Apple is such a solid investment right now. Even with the run-up from the crazy lows of last year, no where to go but up with this kind of consumer demand and overall room for market share grab.

I keep buying more, and I just might retire at 55! Thank you Apple! (and yes, I would buy a Tablet too to go with my iPhone 3GS)

Posted By Jeff, Redding, CA: September 23, 2009 11:20 AM

"Without even a prototype to look at, 21% of 3,100 respondents in a RBC Capital/ChangeWave survey said they'd be interested in buying an Apple tablet computer in the $500 to $700 price range"

Wow, put down the kool-aid. How about seeing if the product is any good first?

Posted By Frank A NYC: September 23, 2009 10:55 AM

How ridiculous to conduct a survey for an unannounced, unspecified, imaginary product with an unfounded price. There is always an interest in wonderful imaginary products with low imaginary prices, but who cares!

Posted By Hiram, Winnipeg, Canada: September 23, 2009 10:48 AM
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Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Steve Jobs, goes the old joke at Apple, is surrounded by a reality distortion field; get too close and you might believe what he's saying. Apple has made believers out of millions of customers — and made a lot of investors rich — but Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple – and watching Steve Jobs operate — since 1982.
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