Munster: Apple on track to sell 2.7 million Macs in Q4
MacBook Pro. Source: Apple Inc.
Based on U.S. retail sales data released Monday afternoon by the NPD Group, Apple (AAPL) is on track to sell 2.7 to 2.8 million Macs and 9.5 to 10.5 million iPods in its fourth fiscal quarter, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.
Mac unit sales came in up 2% year over year in July, which according to Munster implies 3% to 7% growth for the quarter that ends in September — roughly in line with the Street's expectation of 5%.
"With just one month of data," writes Munster, "it is way too early to make a call on the quarter given ~50% of Mac sales in the quarter typically happen in the month of Sept."
He adds that international sales are growing faster than domestic for both Macs and iPods, which is why he expects reported sales to be slightly higher than NPD's numbers would suggest. He also notes that July 2008 was a particularly good month for the Mac, with unit sales up 43% over July '07, so achieving 2% growth over that is no mean feat. The next two months should be easier in terms of showing year-over-year growth.
Things aren't looking quite so rosy for the iPod.
iPods. Apple Inc.
iPod unit sales were down 17% year over year in July, according to NPD, which is worse than Muster expected.
But once again, Munster notes that international sales are growing faster than domestic. He also expects a "reacceleration" in September thanks to Apple's back-to-school promotion, which offers a free iPod with the purchase of any (discounted) Mac. Bottom line: Munster expects Apple to end the quarter with iPod unit sales down 5% to 14% year-to-year, roughly in line with the Street's expectations (-10%).
One final data point: the average selling price for Macs in July was down 4% from the previous month, according to NPD. That's a lot better than the rest of the industry, which have seen ASPs fall 19% year over year thanks to the growing popularity of netbooks. Muster's model calls for ASPs to drop 6% quarter over quarter.
Off-topic, but how come I find out about this on a BBC website?
"Palm has responded to claims that its recently-launched Pre smartphone abuses owners' privacy…The discovery was made by software developer and Pre owner Joey Hess, who found that his phone was reporting his location over a secure connection back to Palm. It also sent back information about application crashes – even those not seen by a Pre owner. Also in the daily update sent to Palm was a list of the third party applications installed on the phone."
If Apple pulled something like that, can you IMAGINE the reaction of the blogosphere?!
Lets face the facts…Apple owns the tech space…They make the best products, the coolest products, the products that the world is clamoring to own…What's down today can easily be up tomorrow…Apple will resume it's march to $200 and beyond…
"Either way, with the stock off $7 a share today, it needs all the help it can get!"
Not much of hit at low volume on a down day for all markets. Still Apple is up from $72 a few months or so ago. When the Chinese iPhone deal becomes reality, we'll see a very nice rise for Apple's capitalization. Today we saw a sale on confirmation that the Chinese deal rumors were unsubstantiated combined with negative reports about current consumer confidence. This too shall pass.
Now let's see what happens with the iTouch refresh in September, along with Mac sales during the last month of the quarter.
While I agree that the iPhone and iPod have overlapping functions. One is an iPhone and the other is an iPod. Even Apple's site is set up that way. I agree that even though the iPhone is eating into iPod sales, it really shouldn't be that big a deal. However the two are different even in Apple's eyes as far as accounting is concerned. Apple is making far more money from iPhones than it is losing in revenue from slowing iPod sales.
Apple had better find which iPods are losing buyer's interest and consider cutting back on production. I'm guessing the hard drive models are losing favor but I think at least one should be kept in the lineup. I'm curious to find out how the shuffle is doing since there was such a ruckus about it when it first came out.
Even though Apple shares dropped so much today, we have to think positively that Apple sales are doing well and the iPhone is even getting some respect in Japan.
"iPods" may not be selling well, but "iPhones" are. Selling 1 iPhone is more profitable than almost 3 iPods for Apple, so don't worry about a small decline in sales for the traditional mp3, as the lines are converging for the consumers.
Looks like Munster is trying to keep a positive spin on Apple stock…didn't he just raise his price target?
Either way, with the stock off $7 a share today, it needs all the help it can get!
iPhones, iPod Touch and iPhones are ALL iPods. WHY DO YOU BLOGGERS TRY TO INDICATE THAT iPODS are not selling well? IT IS CRAZY TO PUT THEM IN SEPARATE CATEGORIES AND TRY TO SHOW DECLINING SALES IN iPODS. AGAIN, THEY ARE ALL iPODS, STUPID.
ex ped: Dave, your comments might be better received if you didn't write in ALL CAPS and punctuate them with the word STUPID.
Can you check your facts in the article? You're talking about '08 and '07 when I think you mean '08 and '09…
ex ped: I meant what I wrote. Munster says July '09 is a tough compare because July '08 was such a big month for Mac sales, up 43% year over year, which is to say up 43% from July '07.