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Apple's $1.2 billion tablet computer


Apple's tablet computer? Photo: Piper Jaffray

Apple's next gadget? Image: Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster took another crack at the Apple (AAPL) tablet computer he's been writing about for months, issuing a report to clients Friday that included some back-of-the-envelope sales estimates and a computer-generated rendering of what he thinks it will look like.

"Last week we spoke with an Asian component supplier that has received orders from Apple for a touch-screen device to be fulfilled by late [calendar year] 09," he writes. "This data point underscores our thesis that a tablet will likely launch in early [2010]."

The device, as he sees it, will…

  • Be similar to an iPod touch, only larger, capable of running most of the 70,000 applications on the iPhone App Store plus a new category of apps designed for the bigger screen.
  • Will be used primarily for Web surfing, e-mail, and digital media, competing with netbooks without being a netbook.
  • Will be priced between an iPhone and a MacBook — between $500 and $700.
  • Is likely to include a 3G cellular modem and could be subsidized by a carrier — either AT&T (T) or Verizon (VZ).
  • Will sell better than Apple TV did its first year (1.2 million units).
  • Could in fact sell 2 million units at $600 each to generate $1.2 billion and add about 3% to Apple's revenue stream in calendar 2010.

See also:

54 Comments | Add a Comment | Email

If it has Bluetooth, it won't need a 3G modem; just get it talking to your iPhone, and use it as the high speed modem. I know lots of MacBook owners already doing that. Let's be real; the kind of Mac enthusiasts who would jump on this already have an iPhone. Would I buy one? You betcha!

Posted By David, Dartmouth, NS, Canada: October 1, 2009 6:08 PM

Pepper, you're an idiot.

Posted By Anonymous: August 11, 2009 11:33 PM

This is pretty awesome as a Kindle competitor (without affecting Amazon's razor blade model) and will fill in very nicely for students. Given how expensive a Kindle is, I would buy one.

Posted By Mike, Whittier, CA: August 10, 2009 6:23 PM

They should call it "the waterloo", because Apple has been executing a brilliant campaign — but one which will inevitably end in a spectacular defeat. Cell phone companies have been doing battle with each other for years, and the product cycles and waves of change are much faster. All it will take is one big screw up, and all that "value" Apple has built up will be gone. The market share is a joke in the U.S. Worldwide, it's non-existent. Invest wisely.

Posted By Pepper, Baltimore, Maryland: August 10, 2009 11:04 AM

will the apple tablet be as great as the anticipation and momentum that is building up to its release?

Posted By Christian Los Angeles CA: August 9, 2009 5:46 PM

It needs to a) be flash memory (>=128GB), b) have the functionality of a tablet, c) have the features and style of the iTouch, d) incorporate phone capabilities, and e) be of a size that facilitates both tablet and mobile uses. Then they can price it for a lot more…

Posted By Frank, Pensacola, FL: August 9, 2009 4:42 PM

That is nice with a tablet!
Would it be sutiable for streaming TV as well?

MatsRG
Myiphone

Posted By matsrg: August 9, 2009 4:05 PM

Wow, did they steal this too? When I checked a few months ago, Microsoft had already released something like this. but as a table too. So basically this is apples "less usable" device. Also, they stole this from MS, they stole the iPhone from Samsung and LG, what's next?

Posted By Rick, Seattle, Washington: August 9, 2009 11:58 AM

So let me get this straight. This will cost as much as a full function laptop but will be a limited function large iTouch.

This will have limited market potential, even for all you Apple fanboys.

Posted By A Rothman, Los Angeles, CA: August 9, 2009 10:45 AM

Awesome. Always innovative in rolling out what the market wants to have. This is the hallmark & differentiator between Apple & the rest.

Mark Abrahamark
Jeddah
KSA

Posted By wehda: August 9, 2009 5:17 AM

I will buy it for the E-reader, gaming platform and for all the cool apps.

I love reading but can't make myself buy that ugly kindle. But if apple is making it, I will buy it. I will also use it for a keyboard for my mac computer.

Awesome.

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Posted By Boka, Springfield, PA: August 8, 2009 11:13 PM

Just like the iPhone wasnt just a phone, this should not be called a tablet or netbook or anything. It's an entirely new device that will likely spark a mini revolution in mobile computing. Businesses are going to use these because they can develop custom apps cheaply to integrate with their infrastructure and extend enterprise apps beyond the "phone". Apple's experience from this will likely lead to all of their devices becoming "touch" aware in the next 2 years. Brilliant!

Posted By Matt, Hawaii: August 8, 2009 5:32 PM

if apple puts out anything like what this article describes it'll set you back at least $1200, not the mere six this guy's guessing about.

Posted By derek, south bend indiana: August 8, 2009 10:16 AM

Well, I have been following the Apple rumour sites for quite a few years and Gene Munster predictions rarely if ever coem true. He has been predicting an Apple Netbook "in a few months" for the last 2-3 years. This time quite a few other sources are predicting a touchscreen tablet device, so maybe Gene will finally get a product forecast right!

Posted By Peter, London, UK: August 8, 2009 9:30 AM

That would ROCK! I just bought a macbook (the newest ones… 13" aluminum) and LOVE it. I am sold on Apple products.

I want one. period.

Posted By livvyjane: August 8, 2009 2:00 AM

I'd like something lighter than my Macbook that I could hook my cameras to via USB 2.0, dump my SD cards into when I'm abroad and review and edit them in iPhoto @ the end of each day. The MacBook Air is good for this but @ $1500, too expensive for a second laptop.

Posted By Gwats, Denver CO: August 8, 2009 1:04 AM

Office?! What, ya got your entire 401k in MSFT? An Apple tablet doesn't *have* to run anything, their recent track record demonstrates that. They'll be an editor of some sort I would imagine, something that can save in a format that is readable by Office, but why anger your users by clobbering their device's CPU with that turgid behemoth? "It will have to run Office", man you crack me up.

Posted By Steve, Denver, CO: August 7, 2009 11:00 PM

Chief financial officer John Killian said, "We plan to conduct LTE trials in Seattle and in Boston later this year. We're working on a commercial launch of LTE service in up to 30 markets next year. In 2011 and 2012, we'll continue to expand significantly with the ultimate goal being to cover all our POPs with this great product by the end of 2013." Verizon's goal is to blanket 100 million points of presence with LTE.

Posted By Mike, Houston, Texas: August 7, 2009 7:55 PM

Everything I've read, other than this news article, states it'll be 4G, not 3G. Apple is working closely with Verizon for a 1Q release, while Verizon has mentioned they're working feverishly to have a 4G network up and running by 1Q 2010 as well.

ex ped: Up and running in how many cities?

Posted By Mike, Houston, Texas: August 7, 2009 7:27 PM

It also needs to run "the dark side suite" – MS Office – and have the ability to hook up to a VGA projector. Taking this on a business trip, hooking it up to a projector and presenting will be massively important.

Do that and only those that need Project and Visio will not get one. CEOs, CIOs, VPs, etc, will get one. Same thing happened with the Macbook Pro and Macbook Air. Same thing with the iPhone. Once a Director got one, they all got one.

Posted By Dave, boulder, colorado: August 7, 2009 5:48 PM

It will probably be available for the Xmas shopping season

Posted By Robert, Detroit, MI: August 7, 2009 4:35 PM

Here's my wishlist:

1. Thin as an iPod classic with a 10" multi-touch screen.

2. Docking station that props it up like a desktop display. Docking station has Ethernet, DVI, FireWire, and USB ports.

3. On-board ports: USB mini, audio and video.

4. Bluetooth keyboard and mouse compatible.

5. Runs on Mac OSX Snow Leopard but compatible with iPhone apps.

6. Wifi and 3G tethering via iPhone.

7. 120GB HDD (like iPod classic).

8. Battery life equivalant to a MacBook Air.

9. Priced at $599 plus $100 for docking station, keyboard and mouse.

This way it would function like a lite desktop when docked and a netbook/tablet when on the road. Maybe not your primary PC but a larger display through the docking port even makes that conceivable.

Posted By Bryan in CT: August 7, 2009 4:10 PM

The speculation is nice…the comment posts make the device seem even nicer. But unless I missed something there's still no speculation as to:

…will the 'tablet' be able to access the (full) internet or will it be another crippled internet device like the Touch?

In other words, will it be Flash-compatible or otherwise able to play streaming audio and video? Will I be able to go to the internet sites of my choice and access/play what they have to offer? Will this new device at least match the web-surfing capability of my five-year old XP desktop?

john

Posted By john Potomac, MT: August 7, 2009 3:31 PM

Or you could buy a used HP TC1100 like I just did and install Linux Mint on it, all for just $240. Looks like HP was a few years ahead of Apple here.

Posted By Keith, Medford, MA: August 7, 2009 3:09 PM

Good stuff, but I wish the thread were presented in chronological order. It's hard to follow commentary that goes backwards!

As to the iTablet, I'll take two and call the doctor in the morning! Should cure whatever ails you technologically! :)

Posted By Paul Robinson, Laredo, Texas: August 7, 2009 2:59 PM

well, this all seems dandy, but what I want to know like someone mentioned, will it allow handwriting (OCR) and more importantly, can I sketch on it? I've been dying for a good tablet that I can draw on, and Wacom's monitors are quite expensive.

Posted By Jonathan, Charlotte NC: August 7, 2009 2:16 PM

Here is the most educated guess:

Price $699 for a 64GB Model, $899 for the 128GB Model.

It will be the first and ONLY model to use Apple's Cocktail project (where you can flick though interactive CDs and DVDs from Music and Movie Publishers)

It will be Wireless Only.

A 9.6 inch screen.

It will be the first to connect to the new iTunes Book Store.

It will be named iBook.

Battery life will be around 24 hours of Music, 6 for DVD, 12 for general use.

Will work and act like an iPod Touch, run all 70K iPhone Apps and Games.

Will push out 720p video

And will be announced Sept 22nd with a ship date about 28 days later.

Posted By tedlandry: August 7, 2009 1:59 PM

The tablet is real, expect it in February with a January announcement..
http://tinycomb.com/2009/08/07/apple-tablet-release-date/

Posted By Jason, Los Angeles, CA: August 7, 2009 1:56 PM

David-

That was exactly what I thought… I will not change my phone company for this but I would buy it if I can use WiFi.

Frankly, they should just keep it like the touch and let the iPhone do its thing. Who would want a 'phone' that big?

Posted By Andrew, Seattle, WA: August 7, 2009 1:53 PM

Add the Kindle reader app to this (already on iPhone) and this will be awesome. Makes you wonder though if Amazon will pull that app since this will be a very real competitor to its kindle.

Posted By Tim, Houston TX: August 7, 2009 1:16 PM

Add handwritting to it, then call it a digital revolution.

Posted By AK, Ottawa, ON: August 7, 2009 1:16 PM

If they tie it to a wireless contract they kill it. If they do 2 versions, ala iPhone and iPod Touch, this will be killer. Many of us refuse to pay cell companies their exorbitant fees for net use.

Posted By David Calistoga CA: August 7, 2009 1:15 PM

…but will it run Windows 7?

Posted By James, Denver, CO: August 7, 2009 1:13 PM

Gimme, Gimme, GIMME, GIMME, GIMMEE!!!!!!

Posted By robert Puget Sound,WA: August 7, 2009 1:07 PM

So, should I or should I not wait to buy Apple TV?

Posted By Tarik, L.A., CA: August 7, 2009 1:07 PM

Who cares what they call it or whether it meets the criteria to called whatever. Zzzzzzzzz

"Sounds right, and the screensize will be 5″." Every rumor on the planet has it at 10 inches, not 5.

Posted By Nodack Az: August 7, 2009 12:48 PM

YEEEESSSSSS!!!

It makes no sense to be a tablet mac. The pc world has tried that and fail miserably.

A larger version of iPod touch is what I have always wanted, and it will sell like hot cakes.

Posted By veggiedude, san francisco, ca: August 7, 2009 12:37 PM

Arguments about symantecs. Step back a second and consider that you are witnessing such a rapid change of technologies and capabilities that the masses do not know precisely what to call something. In just over a century the horseless carriage has developed into cars, vans, SUV's, trucks, hybrids and many other precise variants. Computing and telecom devices are changing so quickly, that 'we' struggle to describe them as precisely. This is exciting! Relax a bit and enjoy the innovation.

Posted By Pedaler, Sturgeon Bay, WI: August 7, 2009 11:52 AM

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Must be based on Mac OS X and NOT on the limited OS X (iPhone OS). Video-out port. For Keynote and PowerPoint presentations.

Posted By Peter Gamble, Philadelphia, PA: August 7, 2009 11:42 AM

Regarding a keyboard: I already have a wireless keyboard for my Mac. Adding the capability to an iTablet is easy!

I would hope that it synergizes, such that you can set it up on a stand and use it as a Mac (with a wireless keyboard and mouse). I also expect it to be robust enough to run just about anything that runs on a Mac or PC.

If so, then I'd say it vastly extends the portability and usefulness of a notebook. And something like that would sell like hotcakes….

Posted By Sacto Joe, Sacramento, CA: August 7, 2009 11:30 AM

This sounds great! I wish Apple would have a Application Store for OS X. Allow OS X users to install iPhone/iPod touch applications like widgets. And a "premium" store for Apple "certified" applications (Word, Firefox, etc). This could be a one stop shop for applications but a user could still install applications from the internet or media (flash, DVD/CD, etc).

Posted By Brian, Cincinnati, OH: August 7, 2009 10:55 AM

The commenter who said that this is not a netbook because it doesn't open up like a book probably also calls LPs and CDs "albums." The name album came from the days when a bunch of 78 rpm records were put into pages like a book, hence the name.

Sometimes new technologies change the meanings of a word…

Posted By Ron Evry, Woodbridge, VA: August 7, 2009 10:40 AM

I like the idea of this product. I don't think it will hurt iPod or MacBook sales specifically. If it indeed does come out (color me still skeptical; we've seen this kind of buzz before), I will definitely consider it. I think it could make a good supplement to my MacBook: my laptop for more serious computing and my tablet for daily bus rides and computing around campus (I'm a grad student).

That said, it absolutely must have a way to use a full keyboard – USB or bluetooth.

Posted By michaelbraun: August 7, 2009 10:38 AM
Posted By pif port townsend wa: August 7, 2009 10:08 AM

Apple's new unibody design techniques, which carves the body from a solid block of aluminum, falls into place with a design this. Light, sturdy, strong, beautiful.

Posted By Daed Wichita, Kansas: August 7, 2009 9:32 AM

SHEEEEEZZZZZZEEeeeeeeee!

And if Apple sold goats at $450 each and sold a million of them, they could make $450 million dollars plus extra for the natural fertilazer from goats… LOL Just LOL.

If Apple comes out with something this fall, great. Lets look at what it is and what it does. Until then this is just so much Banta fodder. :-(

Just a thought,
en

Posted By elder norm, palestine, texas: August 7, 2009 9:25 AM

It's whatever they call it. It won't make a difference, b/c apple will remake the market to their liking and the other items will be rebranded. Apple creates, smart people buy expensive things that are made well and work well.

Posted By Brian/ Florida: August 7, 2009 9:25 AM

Just because it is "aimed at websurfing and email" that doesn't DEFINE it as a netbook.

Netbooks are just that…books. You can physically open them and close them….like a book.

This is a tablet…the kind the 10 Commandments are written on.

Nice try Dave. You must be the smartest person in your mind.

Posted By Kevin, Cupertino, CA: August 7, 2009 9:19 AM

let's say the iTablet is coming soon, why limit it to just bigger than the touch and only able to run app store applications? why not a folding tablet that is more powerful than the touch but with less over head than the mac? a tablet that can be used for surfing, email , ebook and a lite version of ms office

Posted By g skorich, chicago il: August 7, 2009 9:19 AM

Ahem…Dave:

A tablet-based "netbook" would not be the first time an Apple design redefined a product category. Can you say, personal computer? Laser Printer? Intel-based Macs that run any OS? iMac? iPod? Mac OS X? Mac OS X Mobile? iPhone? iPod touch?

Besides, for all we know, Apple's rumored device also could have a mini USB port to attach an optional keyboard. Finally, if Apple can offer a computer that runs Mac OS X, Windows and Linux, surely it can use virtualization to offer a product that runs the desktop Mac OS X and the OS X Mobile.

Posted By HD Boy – Sacramento, CA: August 7, 2009 9:15 AM

Sounds right, and the screensize will be 5".

Posted By KenC, Gardiner, Maine: August 7, 2009 9:11 AM

It's from Apple. It's an iBook, iPad, iTouch or iTablet.

Posted By Al Calgary AB: August 7, 2009 9:09 AM

Most rumors are saying $700-800 price range, which would affect units and margin but probably not revenue. Any thoughts on whether this would cannibalize MacBooks or Touches?

Posted By Richard, Volente TX: August 7, 2009 8:59 AM

Ok, lets go down this road once again people. Based upon the articles description….it can run Iphone applications and is primarily aimed at websurfing and email. OH! it's a NETBOOK!!!! A true tablet computer is fully functional in terms of running business applications. This is not tablet computer as described. Please please please call it what it is.

Posted By Dave, Akron Ohio: August 7, 2009 8:49 AM
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Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Steve Jobs, goes the old joke at Apple, is surrounded by a reality distortion field; get too close and you might believe what he's saying. Apple has made believers out of millions of customers — and made a lot of investors rich — but Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple – and watching Steve Jobs operate — since 1982.
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