Comments on: Analyst: Old iPhone, not new, will drive Apple's sales

By: Tom Ross, Berlin

Tom Ross, Berlin — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:25:43 +0000

I'm sorry, I meant to say: There were no price drops whatsoever in France, Germany or the UK around the release of the iPhone 3G S.

By: Tom Ross, Berlin

Tom Ross, Berlin — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:23:09 +0000

This analysis claims that the iPhone 3G will see strong sales because of the price drop, but it neglects to mention that this price drop was US only. In most international markets the price either already dropped in winter (boosting Apple's last quarter from January to March) or didn't drop at all.

So this statement from the report…

"The $99 iPhone is expected to drive 30-40% momentum improvement, in countries like UK, Germany, France"

…is definitely wrong. There were no price drops whatsoever in France, Germany or the UK around the release of the iPhone 3G. Why did Abramsky fail to research European prices?

Since the US is currently only 40 % of the iPhone market, that's the only market that is going to get a boost from this price drop. In light of this, Abramsky's estimate of 11.85 million iPhones sold between April und September 2009, 56 % more than last year, seems too optimistic.

I would suggest something like 33 % growth or 10 million for the 2 quarters (18 million for the whole fiscal year). That would reflect strong organic growth from the rising popularity of the AppStore PLUS some boost from the US price drop MINUS the ongoing economic crisis.

Predicting sales on a per-model basis beyond September 2009 seems very speculative and almost pointless to me because we don't know any of Apple's plans (as usual). We don't know when Apple will drop prices for international markets again and we don't know if and when they are intending to introduce a 3rd iPhone line which could be a more high-end or more low-end smartphone or specialized form factor or even a feature phone. The iPhone business line is still nascent and there a lot of options on the table for Apple. Nobody can predict what they're going to do next.

* iPhone sales over the last 2 years can be found here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter.svg

By: Hiram, Winnipeg, Canada

Hiram, Winnipeg, Canada — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 18:05:21 +0000

I'm guessing that the 3G iPhone will be a free (totally subsidized) phone before Christmas.

By: Mike Mc.D, San Francisco, CA

Mike Mc.D, San Francisco, CA — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 08:31:18 +0000

Coverage for AT&T is fine in most cities. I had tried AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, and Verizon. T-Mobile was the worst coverage, then Sprint. AT&T and Verizon were closely tied. Sometimes it depends on how close I was to the main freeway, and other times I was way in the country but still got service. Best to try it before you buy. All states have a 21 day free trial, but you must return it by day 21 (even though they say 30 day).

I expect Apple stock to easily hit $150 because of the new phone pricing and new phones. The next version of the Macbook low-end could be the uni-body (no Firewire though) and that will boost Apple laptop sales. Already the most popular laptop on campuses.

By: Scott, Huntington, NY

Scott, Huntington, NY — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 22:38:38 +0000

I live on Long Island and in NYC frequently–never have a coverage problem and rarely have a dropped call. I can't speak for other areas, but Metro NYC has good coverage through AT&T.

By: Mark, San Antonio

Mark, San Antonio — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:35:26 +0000

Gary Dee – They would have to put a different transmitter into the iPhone to use t-mobile's 3G network, as it is band incompatible with what AT&T uses for 3G. If you unlock any iPhone and use it on t-mobile's network, it will always connect at EDGE network speeds.

By: Steven, Los Angeles, CA

Steven, Los Angeles, CA — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:50:02 +0000

"Give us a $20 or even $30/month data plan and the iPhone will sky rocket. IMHO."

That's how much you pay if you have a 2G or 3G respectively. I wish they would include text messages within that plan since both are data anyway. As is right now it's $30 for unlimited data (for 3G/S) and $20 for unlimited text messages. Plus $50 for the cheapest phone plane of 450 mins/5000 night/weekend.

By: Gary Dee, Portland, Oregon

Gary Dee, Portland, Oregon — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:29:45 +0000

The carrier issue is a real one … I have a good deal, great coverage on T-Mobile. I would be willing to wait an extra six months to have an iPhone on T-Mo, after first release to AT&T. I bet a lot of Verizon customers also feel this way.

By: Mark, San Antonio

Mark, San Antonio — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:21:59 +0000

Mons – Can you read? He said the 3G would outsell the 3GS THIS FISCAL YEAR, with the 3GS overtaking it next year. RIF.

mark – The article only mentions prepaid or PAYG as a market factor in those countries, not that Apple or any of their carriers would do it. If they ever do, even a 3G would be a LOT more expensive than $99.

By: Nick Somerset NJ

Nick Somerset NJ — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 21:18:32 +0000

One of the main factors holding consumers back is that iphones are tied to AT&T's network. My roommate in NJ loses probably 20 calls a day with his AT&T company phone. My brother in OH switched to AT&T specifically for the iphone and is going back to verizon as soon as his contract is up… It really doesn't matter where you are, the service is not good. Until they can be freed from that obligation the best thing to do is buy an ipod touch and a cheaper phone.