Apple Sells Over One Million iPhone 3GS Models

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/06/22iphone.html

As times passes, “exponential” trajectory becomes more and more diffi-cult to cheer-along. But there are a few tricks of the “trade” (or shall I say tricks if the “gospel”) that Gene Munster can employ.

• At each new event, try to find signs of “accelerating” growth, even if it becomes difficult as numbers grow bigger, so if all else fails, compare to an old number (e.g., 1st Gen iPhones sales).

• When something is actually (Jobs forbid) deteriorating (e.g., “Switchers” % is falling) – hint the blame on the slaves of Apple (AT&T), the same btw when Mac batteries were faulty, it was always the fault of a supplier, and trumpet it this way. True religion can not be faulted or be wrong, you know. Never.

• Restate the obvious: the fact that Apple “is developing” brand loyalty, is as surprising as to say that “the followers of rev. Moon are devoted to the cause of his church”. Seriously speaking, in this case this is an understatement perhaps designed to paint the relationship between Munster and the subject of his analysis (AAPL) as one of a professional rather than of passionate nature, but it is an understatement nevertheless – a commercial entity that has thousands of followers willing to demonstrate their loyalty, is extraordinary. And yes, people camping out in the rain for a third sequel of a product are making a statement more than they are waiting for a product – I still remember the 3G lines, people were proudly waiving their 1st Gen iPhones to say – “hey we are proud to spend our money on an unnecessary improvement – go Apple go etc.”. There is an effective “narrative” of Apple supporters (including in the media) for an attempt to drum-up sales of Apple products by creating an impression of shortages and agitated white-hot (“red-hot” expression has been used already, not “hot enough”, so now it must be “hyperboled” further to “white”) demand.

• A “wet dream” of every Apple well-wisher is to create a snowball of acceptance by “businesses” or corporates rather than only private worshippers – and every figure is endlessly “wishfully-analysed” to pick-up the coveted “shoots” of corporate users.

• So yes, the iPhone is a great gadget, even a desirable one. But will I be seen dead with it? Not if I have a shred of self respect as an original person and a non-Mooney-style culter.

And please, don’t “Apple hate” me, as above, I think that Apple has great products and possibly best industrial design, but reading the Apple-press (almost all the mainstream press, that is) enthusiasm-chocking clutter is just nauseating.

I applaud Munster for trying, but he has to re-examine his iPhone launch estimating methods.

ex ped: Posted.

ex ped: Some could have been new customers, I imagine, others could have been AT&T customers who had phones other than iPhones. I'm just guessing.

ex ped: First of all, this was Gene Munster's comparison, not mine, although it seems a perfectly reasonable one to make. Also, the iPhone 3G was released in 21 countries on launch day last year and eight countries this year, a difference of 13 countries, not about 62 as you have it. Getting one's facts right is apparently a little harder than you make it out to be.

He estimated 425,000 for the iPhone 3G launch, but the actual numbers were more than a million. That's a pretty large margin of error.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Piper+Jaffray+Analysts+Comment+on+Apple’s+(AAPL)+3g+iPhone+Launch/3815931.html

http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/14/the-mobile-web-is-here-apple-sells-one-million-3g-iphones-first-weekend-ten-million-iphone-apps-downloaded/