Munster: Apple sold 750,000 iPhones last weekend
UPDATE: Make that 1 million. See below
Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster issued a report early Monday that may draw some attention away from Steve Jobs' health and put it back on the bright and shiny object Apple (AAPL) released last Friday.
Munster and his team spent the day counting heads and conducting interviews with customers buying the new iPhone 3GS in New York City and Minneapolis. Among their findings:
- 750,000 iPhones. Munster estimates that Apple sold about 750,000 new iPhones over the three-day weekend, 50% more than his initial prediction (500,000) but 25% less than the 1 million iPhone 3Gs Apple sold on launch last July. It took Apple 74 days to sell 1 million first-generation iPhone and three days to sell 1 million units of the iPhone 3G.
- Shrinking windfall. Among the 256 customers surveyed, 28% were switching carriers to AT&T (T), down from 38% last year and 52% in 2007. AT&T's iPhone windfall is shrinking.
- Brand loyalty. 56% were upgrading from an old iPhone, up from 38% last year. "We believe this shows Apple is developing brand loyalty not enjoyed by other mobile phone makers," Munster writes.
- 16GB sweet spot. 43% bought the high-end 32GB iPhone 3GS, down from the 66% who bought the high-capacity model (16GB) last year and the 95% who chose 8GB over the 4GB when the first iPhone went on sale.
- Business users. Among customers buying their first iPhone, 12% were switching from a Research in Motion (RIMM) BlackBerry, up from 6% last year. This, says Munster, "may indicate the company is making headway among business users slowly adopting the iPhone platform for corporate use."
Munster maintains a buy rating for Apple with a price target of $180 a share. The stock closed Friday at 139.48, up 2.6%, before the Street learned that Steve Jobs is recovering from a liver transplant.
UPDATE: Four hours and fifteen minutes after Munster issued his report to clients, Apple announced that it had actually sold more than 1 million units of the iPhone 3GS by Sunday, selling as many iPhones in eight countries as it sold in 21 last year. See here.
See also:
- Munster: 500,000 iPhones this weekend
- Live from the (relatively sedate) iPhone 3G S launch
- Inside Steve Jobs' liver transplant
Mon Dieu, isn't it diffi”cult” to be an Apple “wishful”-analyst?
As times passes, “exponential” trajectory becomes more and more diffi-cult to cheer-along. But there are a few tricks of the “trade” (or shall I say tricks if the “gospel”) that Gene Munster can employ.
• At each new event, try to find signs of “accelerating” growth, even if it becomes difficult as numbers grow bigger, so if all else fails, compare to an old number (e.g., 1st Gen iPhones sales).
• When something is actually (Jobs forbid) deteriorating (e.g., “Switchers” % is falling) – hint the blame on the slaves of Apple (AT&T), the same btw when Mac batteries were faulty, it was always the fault of a supplier, and trumpet it this way. True religion can not be faulted or be wrong, you know. Never.
• Restate the obvious: the fact that Apple “is developing” brand loyalty, is as surprising as to say that “the followers of rev. Moon are devoted to the cause of his church”. Seriously speaking, in this case this is an understatement perhaps designed to paint the relationship between Munster and the subject of his analysis (AAPL) as one of a professional rather than of passionate nature, but it is an understatement nevertheless – a commercial entity that has thousands of followers willing to demonstrate their loyalty, is extraordinary. And yes, people camping out in the rain for a third sequel of a product are making a statement more than they are waiting for a product – I still remember the 3G lines, people were proudly waiving their 1st Gen iPhones to say – “hey we are proud to spend our money on an unnecessary improvement – go Apple go etc.”. There is an effective “narrative” of Apple supporters (including in the media) for an attempt to drum-up sales of Apple products by creating an impression of shortages and agitated white-hot (“red-hot” expression has been used already, not “hot enough”, so now it must be “hyperboled” further to “white”) demand.
• A “wet dream” of every Apple well-wisher is to create a snowball of acceptance by “businesses” or corporates rather than only private worshippers – and every figure is endlessly “wishfully-analysed” to pick-up the coveted “shoots” of corporate users.
• So yes, the iPhone is a great gadget, even a desirable one. But will I be seen dead with it? Not if I have a shred of self respect as an original person and a non-Mooney-style culter.
And please, don’t “Apple hate” me, as above, I think that Apple has great products and possibly best industrial design, but reading the Apple-press (almost all the mainstream press, that is) enthusiasm-chocking clutter is just nauseating.
You need an update. Apple just announced over 1m in 3G S sales over the weekend. Also, over 6m iPhone 3.0 downloads.
I applaud Munster for trying, but he has to re-examine his iPhone launch estimating methods.
ex ped: Posted.
The numbers don't add up 28% switched from other carriers and 56% were uprading = 84%. What were the others brand new cell phone users…I think not.
ex ped: Some could have been new customers, I imagine, others could have been AT&T customers who had phones other than iPhones. I'm just guessing.
How did he estimate the number shipped to homes? Did switchers need to go to the store (Apple or AT&T) or could they do it from home?
Interesting. People are signing up for a minimum $1,800 2 year commitment commitment when getting an iphone, but don't tend to like spending an extra $100 at purchase to get the larger RAM model…
Please stop comparing this years sales to last, if you did some real research you will see that it is available in about 62 countries less than last year? Cmon, its not that hard. Edit the story.
ex ped: First of all, this was Gene Munster's comparison, not mine, although it seems a perfectly reasonable one to make. Also, the iPhone 3G was released in 21 countries on launch day last year and eight countries this year, a difference of 13 countries, not about 62 as you have it. Getting one's facts right is apparently a little harder than you make it out to be.
Of course, Munster tries harder than almost any other analyst, but he has no way to guess within a huge margin of error. Anyone covering Apple closely must be allergic, also, to wildly inflated estimates.
He estimated 425,000 for the iPhone 3G launch, but the actual numbers were more than a million. That's a pretty large margin of error.
Never trust the estimates of a guy named after cheese.