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Survey: Smartphone demand accelerating


RBC/ChangeWave: Smartphones risingDemand for smartphones (as opposed to ordinary cellphones) has never been higher and continues to accelerate, according to a report issued Thursday by RBC Capital and ChangeWave Reseach.

In a note to client, RBC's Mike Abramsky ticks off four key findings from interviews conducted June 9-15 among 4,100 mostly high-end consumers.

  • Interest is high. 14.4% planned to buy a smartphone over the next three months, up from 11.2% in March.
  • Apple and Palm lead demand. Interest in buying Apple's (AAPL) iPhone jumped to 44% (from 30% in March) following the introduction of the 3GS. Interest in Palm (PALM) doubled to 8% (from 4% in March and 1% last December). Interest in buying Research in Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry was still a "healthy" 23%, but down from 37% in March.
  • Touchscreens are hot. 43% of prospective smartphone buyers say touchscreens are "very important" to them, up from 33% in September. But users who do a lot of typing still prefer QWERTY keyboards (33%, basically unchanged).
  • Who needs TV? Asked in May what they'd be willing to part with, 1,700 respondents in a separate survey made their priorities clear. 44% would give up their TV service, 23% their home phones, 11% their DVD/movie rentals, but only 3% their cellphones.

ChangeWave surveys, according to the company's literature, are drawn from “a group of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals — as well as early adopter consumers — who work in leading companies of select industries. They are credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives on the frontline of technological change.”

Below the fold: The RBC/ChangeWave fever chart of the horse race between Apple, RIM and Palm.

RBC: Apple, RIM, Palm

the price keeps me out of it $40 – $60 for a data plan depending on the network? No thank you. I do not make enough money to afford that.

Posted By Tawnie, Tucson,az: June 23, 2009 6:37 AM

Isn't it misleading just to say blindly that expected users to buy palm and iphones are growing without pointing out those two actually have brand new products on the market?? Of course it would jump…

Posted By Mike, Chicago IL: June 19, 2009 12:10 PM

Thanks. Which means that the 6.34% (44X14.4) who plan to buy an iPhone in these next 3 months is even higher than last year when only 5.88% (56×10.5) had such plans.

Just as it did with home broadband, which went from 7 to 14% between Apr 2001 to March 2003, the puck is slowly but surely moving to where Apple expects it to be (mobile broadband computing as dominant).

See trend of home broadband chart at http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-broadband-thriving-despite-economic-collapse-2009-6

Posted By mark, boston, ma: June 18, 2009 2:22 PM

Whats the fuzz for these analysts, Dont they know nokia and sony ericsson has a mms, video and forward feature for the messages. And not to mention longer battery life, Where you guys just born last week? Even palm is raving a multiple apps being open at the same time, does windows ce has that before? I bet when you can open multiple apple apps the anal-lists will soup up the sales for the iphone. Even palm is being hype because it has no free office apps? Why would I buy these phones. I don't need a game console, I need a phone!!!

Posted By Alex, Toronto, On: June 18, 2009 12:34 PM

Does the bottom chart (Exhibit 5) show the percentage of the 14.4% who are planning to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days? In other words, does 44% of the 14.4% plan to buy iPhone in this survey? And 37% of the 11.2% planned to buy BB in the Mar 2009 survery? Is that the correct way to read these charts?

ex ped: Yes, 44% of the 14.4% who plan to buy a Smartphone in the next 90 days are planning to buy an iPhone.

Posted By mark, boston, ma: June 18, 2009 11:17 AM

"Smartphone demand accelerating"

And it would even more with cheaper monthly costs.

I am sorry but iPhone is not for me until then.

Posted By AK, Ottawa, ON: June 18, 2009 10:40 AM
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Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Steve Jobs, goes the old joke at Apple, is surrounded by a reality distortion field; get too close and you believe what he's saying. Apple has made believers out of millions of customers — and made a lot of investors rich — but Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple – and watching Steve Jobs operate — since 1982.
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