Google's Android falling behind the iPhone
After matching the iPhone nearly hit for hit in its first five months on the market, Google's (GOOG) Android has fallen behind the pace set by Apple's (AAPL) smartphone in terms of its presence on the Web, according to a report issued Monday.
"Android and the iPhone's browsing usage share upon launch were nearly identical for the first few months," the Web metrix firm Net Applications reports. "However, May numbers show that the Android mobile platform has fallen off the pace the iPhone set upon its launch." (link)
Stacking the iPhone's first six months on the market with Android's, the numbers look like this:
The acceleration in the iPhone's Month 6 (January 2007) occurred well before the device really took off with the launch of the iPhone 3G last summer. The first Android phone — the T-Mobile (DT) G1 — launched last October and had a strong Month 4, catching up to and even passing the iPhone's Month 4. But by Month 6 it had fallen badly behind.
Moreover, the iPhone's expanding Web presence shows no signs of slowing down. Its Internet share grew another 9.09% in May to reach 0.6% penetration, according to preliminary data released early Monday. Android's share has yet to break 0.08%.
"This," notes Net Applications, "may signal difficulty in moving beyond early adopters."
It may also signal difficulty for Palm (PALM), which is set to release its answer to the iPhone — the Palm Pre — later this week through Sprint (S). A strong launch is almost guaranteed, given the buzz that has surrounded the device since it was unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show last January and voted Best in Show.
But as Google and T-Mobile have learned, sustaining that buzz may not be so easy, especially with Apple expected to introduce a new iPhone, perhaps as early as next week.
The smartphone market is still in its early growth stage, however, and things may yet pick up for Android. The G2 — marketed as the HTC Magic — launched in Europe in April and made a strong U.S. debut last week at a Google developers conference, where free G2s were handed out to each of the hundreds of attendees. According to the New York Times, Google expects there to be at least 18 different Android phones on the market from eight or nine manufacturers before the end of the year.
According to its Web site, Net Applications’ monthly surveys are conducted by sampling browser data from some 160 million visits to Web sites operated by its clients. The firm describes the results as “market shares,” but they do not actually measure share of market in the traditional sense of revenue or unit sales. They do, however, provide a consistent methodology by which to gauge operating system trends. (See Ars Technica for a good review of the different ways to measure market share.)
You can review Net Applications' May data here. The computer operating system data is free; unfortunately, a paid subscription is required to view its detailed mobile browsing data.
See also:
@Jason in Olathe, KS: iPod touch is not included in these figures.
@PED: There is seasonality in cell-phone sales. Android covers Oct (launch month) to Mar, while iPhone covers July to Dec. Seasonality should be taken into account excepting the launch month which is heavily biased by pent-up demand.
The sixth month (Mar) lag for Android could be due to Feb-Mar generally being a slow new sales period when compared to Dec (sixth month for iPhone). OTOH, the fourth month (Jan) surge for Android covers Christmas activations, which is not a part of the iPhone data.
Until you can actually use these phones on plans that don't cost more than $40 a month, it really doesn't matter which mobile OS has more browser hits since they're minuscule compared to their actual potential. Once these phones actually become mainstream, that's when their browser share will really matter.
Lame article! and extremely bias…
The android is a platform and not just a phone. it's as great as the phone manufacturer makes it to be. give it decent hardware, and multi-touch (which it already supports as proved by many hacks) and it will blow the iPhone away.
the G1 is a developers phone, it's a phone for those who appreciate open source…
As long as Google sticks with the inferior HTC and Qualcomm hardware (just search for HTC class action), and 3rd-class Linux OS (which has never broken the desktop market in at least 15 years of trying), the summation is too weak to compete against the strongly, very strategically vertically integrated Apple product.
Just being another mee-too device with capacitive touch doesn't make it superior, nor being able to every single app available at the same time (Windows Mobile).
It's about the eco-system (which Android still lacks), strongly integrated and predictable hardware base (which Windows Mobile lacks), an making the common idea easier to use.
Douglas….Thank you.
Apple has only up to go. They started this craze and with the following they have, it will not slow down anytime soon.
The Music alone give Apple fans a reason to stay, now add the Apps and I just dont see how any phone can convince a customer to ditch all that money invested (and time with social apps).
Heck, Nintendo is scared of the games offered for .99 cents to 9.99.
I wanted a Google phone before they came out. Now I am beginning to think that I am not going to wait.
Although there is much talk about this Android—Dell creates one and not one single carrier buys it—not one.
I don't doubt we are going to see a few models Q4—but it seems like the carriers themselves aren't very excited. You would think they would all put together and 10 man team and $10M to make this happen 2 years ago. But they didn't.
So I am guessing it will be just another line of cell phones you can choose from if the spirit moves you. Take over the marketplace? The ship sailed.
90% of ATT sign-up's——iPhone. They can't ditch them in 2 years for the next big idea. They have invested to much money in APPS and songs—so like it or not Apple won the game.
dugles
Oh please! Android will never pass up the iPhone because it's not just about the operating system. They need the cool hardware to operate on also! Until Android has a cool piece of hardware comparable to the iPhone to run on, it will always be behind and so will everyone else.
It is unclear from their site whether the iPod Touch is lumped into the data for this particular comparision, and I am guessing that might not be a fair inclusion?
And what did the economy look like when the iPhone was released? Isn't it just possible that part of the reason for a slightly slower adoption rate is either
1) The economy
2) The fact that there are lots of other Android options coming soon
The conclusion that Android can't get past early adopters isn't particularly well supported here.
This article totally misses the point. Look at any phone blog and you will see by the end of the year there will be many more Android based handsets in the market. This "lag" is momentary.
ex ped: You seem to have fired that off without finishing the article.
"Lame article. Wait a year or two and Android will be way ahead of iPhone.
BIASED ARTICLE — BEWARE!!!"
Brett, you presume that Apple and the iPhone will stand still over the next "year or two". Perhaps you haven't been paying attention, but this summer iPhones (and iPod touches) will get peripherals through the dock connector, opening up a whole new world of opportunities for mobile computing, both for the consumer and for businesses.
And that's not even what they do for the platform in the next 12 to 24 months — that's right now.
Sorry, I think you are way off base…
… and G2? Come on! The Google developers cringe when people call it that. What does your style guide say? What about your press kit from Google?
Lame article. Wait a year or two and Android will be way ahead of iPhone.
BIASED ARTICLE — BEWARE!!!
PED -
Thanks for the info. Also, your caveat (second to last paragraph) was a good inclusion.
"They do, however, provide a consistent methodology by which to gauge operating system trends."
This is true – though I do take it with a grain of salt since users of different devices will have different usage patterns (obviously).
One thing I find interesting is that when the iPhone was introduced, it started a whole new class of device (cell phone with a really usable browser) and created a new set of expectations. The G1 moved into this as an established space. That is, the customers were there taking for granted the new expectations. I am not sure of the significance of this, but it is a thought. It seems to me, that with cell phones taking up a larger portion of the total web trafic, one would have expected Android ot do much better if it is ever to really challenge iPhone.
Finally, it will be interesting to see how the proliferation of Android phones plays out in the future. Will the different models of "net-phones" be so numerous that the iPhone will become just one of the crowd? Or will the Androids just compete amongst themselves in their own limited arena?
We will see.
If you sell as many phones in your first month… as another company did in THEIR first month… those are considered "same sales"?
What if 1 product is released 1-2 *YEARS* before the other?
You know nothing about technology if you think a 1-2 *YEAR* gap is "nothing to be concerned about".
There were as many Google-Phones sold in it's 1st month… as there were iPhones that had already been on the market for nearly a year?
I highly doubt that.
You have very odd definitions of "keeping up" and "behind".
was this a nice way for tmobile get existing custmoers to upgrade to the G2 at a for another $399 since existing customers don't qualify for the full discount on upgrades until after 22 months on a two year agreement?? what about those who got the g1 and had to extend another two years and didn't realize until after 14 days how inferior and crappy the g1 is even compared to a sidekick??
Was this supposed to be an Iphone killer?? The thought of that is beyond laughable. The G1 can't even hold a battery charge longer than 3 hours, are we supposed to trust that the G2 along with Tmobiles 'wonderful' customer service will be better?
The G1 is a huge disappointment and a complete Piece of s**t. Seriously, the G2 will have features that the G1 should have had and maybe the G2 won't be so flimsy and cheap looking. I got one and returned it before the 14 days period was up.
Does this include phones that are tethered? Since tethering is free on the G1, I find myself just hooking in my laptop more often than I did a couple months ago…
In addition, the growth for iPhone 3G (in 2008) was much greater than for the original iPhone (in 2007). The 2007 iPhone took 6 months to get to .09%, while iPhone 3G increased from .19% to .46%, or .27% in 6 months in 2008. So Android should've done better since the market in 2008 was better established in the minds of consumers (as some commenters have said).
Over the same 6-month period (Oct 2008 to Mar 2009), iPhone 3G went from .33% to .50%, with its curve shaped like the Android curve (very slow in Feb-Mar, possibly due to recession as others have said). The iPhone 3G grew at twice the rate though, however, one must discount it some because iPhone 3G was an update and not a totally new product like the G1.