Analyst: 'Dramatically' different Apple tablet in 2010
The touchscreen tablet computer that is widely expected to be Apple's (AAPL) answer to those $300 netbooks will cost more, come later and be more dramatically different than most investors expect.
That's the thrust of a note to clients posted by Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster early Thursday.
According to Munster, the device will fill the gap between the iPod touch and the MacBook, cost between $500 and $700, run App Store apps and arrive some time in the first half of 2010.
"We are anticipating a new category of Apple products," he writes, "with an operating system more robust than the iPhone's but optimized for multi-touch…
"We expect the end result … to be launched later but with more dramatic differentiation than the Street is expecting."
Making the case for a touchscreen tablet, Munster ticks off the signs:
- Apple's consistent message that it refuses to launch a "cheap" portable netbook
- Its gradual addition of multi-touch technology to all of its core products (iPhones, iPods and Macs)
- Its acquisition of P.A. Semi along with other recent chip-related hires (making it increasingly clear that Apple is investing more in its mobile computing franchise)
- Apple's desire to differentiate itself in a maturing market before it's too late (similar to the timing of iPod and iPhone)
Rumors that Steve Jobs was working on a successor to the ill-fated Newton date back to at least Sept. 2007, 18Â months after a team of Apple engineers is said to have begun working on it. According to AppleInsider, the tablet team was pulled off the project in 2006 to help get the iPhone out the door.
What's holding it up now, according to Munster's sources, is the operating system. "Its complexity, along with our conversations with a key company in the mobile space, leads us to believe [the new device] will not launch until calendar year 2010."
Munster does not address the question of whether the tablet will come with a real keyboard like the MacBook, or a virtual one like the iPod touch.
A touchscreen tablet wouldn't need a keyboard for videos, Web-surfing, iPhone apps or e-books. But some analysts believe it couldn't really serve as a netbook without a physical keyboard — if only as a peripheral.
On that other hand, it's hard to imagine Jobs or Jonathan Ive signing off on a design as clunky as, say, the Asus t91 pictured here, with its hinged, rotating keyboard.
Will Apple solve this dilemma? Apparently we're going to have to wait a little longer to find out.
See also:
::… that will be that for Apple…:::
Man, if I had a dollar for every time I heard this in the last 10 years….Oh, wait, I bought Apple stock at 15. I actually DO have a dollar for every time someone says that! Thanks for having no vision guys! It leaves the market open for someone with actual IDEAS other than "more features at a cheaper price" which will kill netbooks if anything will. The cheaper and crappier and less reliable and more complicated netbooks become, the shorter the lifespan will be for them. The PC world eats it's young, typically.
"I’m sure it will be a nice product, but it still won’t lure Windows PC users away. Those people that buy underpowered, third-world netbook devices are just too damn cheap to buy anything else that costs more. That’s why even medium-range priced notebook sales are suffering. Who would have thought Americans would have been scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to computing power."
Wow, quite a bit of ignorance on display there. Most people who buy netbooks don't buy them as a primary computer. They're usually a second or even third machine, so the argument that netbook users are "too cheap to pay more" is falacious.
Netbooks fill a very specific market. They're meant to be inexpensive and highly portable word processing, email, internet, etc. machines. Ditching a physical keyboard is a bad idea right off the bat since it's no longer well suited to the first two uses. If Apple sells a tablet with no physical keyboard (forget about having a peripheral. If it's full size then the portability compared to a netbook takes a nose dive), and less power then you're essentially left with a large iPhone you're paying as much as $700 for. The iPhone may be a great phone, but not at a $700 price point, even if it is bigger.
I have no doubt though, that if Apple does release such a tablet it will sell well to the Mac fans. They're generally not too bothered by paying more for less hardware wise so long as they never have to think about their machines inner workings and can take it to someone else to fix when something small goes wrong. But PC users, and those looking for functionality for their dollar are not going to be sold on it.
Dunno… a big, expensive tablet that will run small apps designed for a phone. So it may not run the real OS X. So you may not be able to add your own computer programs.
And Apple expects me to pay $500-$700 for it? In the words of some TV gangster… "FUGGEDABOUTIT!!"
For $500, I'll go for a netbook where I will be able to run Microsoft Office (which, BTW, Apple hasn't come up with anything better), and still have change left over.
MUST HAVE:
- 400 g weight or less. The less weight, the better. Hint: the MacBook Air is too heavy.
- Small. If possible, pocketable. 7-inch better than 10-inch. Hint: the MacBook Air is too large.
-Open and edit Keynote and PowerPoint NATIVE presentations.
- Full blown presentations on videoprojectors (VGA-out is a RE-MUST).
Remember: this device is NOT for heavy work on it, but mainly as a pocketable device for presentations and casual editing when you are rehearsing and reviewing your presentation. Check the first picture of:
Next Apple moves will be Books and Games…
http://spidouz.wordpress.com/2008/09/03/next-apple-moves-will-be-books-and-games
Can Apple deliver. We need thousands for our University. The price is not a problem. But we need it light and small.
I'm sure it will be a nice product, but it still won't lure Windows PC users away. Those people that buy underpowered, third-world netbook devices are just too damn cheap to buy anything else that costs more. That's why even medium-range priced notebook sales are suffering. Who would have thought Americans would have been scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to computing power.
The only thing I'm really worried about, that with all this advance notice, any company can easily upstage Apple with their own version of a tablet. Those competitor companies will throw in the kitchen sink as far as features go and they'll sell it for even less than netbooks. Apple's pad will be very low on hardware features, but high on usability and software, especially if it's going to be able to run all the iPhone/iPod platform software. The other companies are going to have SDHC slots and fingerprint readers and probably USB ports. The Apple tablet won't have any of that stuff. Without a USB port, probably no corporation will want to use it, knowing how they love that standardized port stuff.
Apple is going to lose out big-time on this one if it waits until next year to release a tablet. RIM will probably release one with it's famous BlackBerry chicklet keyboard and that will be that for Apple. All the major corporations would go with the RIM tablet.
What if you could get a multicore processor in an iphone? One that can shutdown cores as needed, say when on battery vs plugged in. How about an iphone that can plug into a larger tablet or a monitor as a docking station. Think, my iphone is the central processor and docks with all these peripherals adding netbook/notebook and desktop functionality. Remember, apple is syncing the look and feel across all platforms in OSX snow leopard.
While I think that this type of device has the potential to be a homerun, the projected timing (vs. this year) isn't shocking for two reasons:
1. Partitioning the platform between open PC-like layers (i.e., download apps from anywhere) and managed/closed runtime layers (App Store is THE marketplace with a singular SDK, APIs, etc.) is a potential hornet's nest of technical, user experience and ecosystem decisions.
2. Such a device is a logical point for Apple to define forking decisions between abstractions and uniformity, relative to supporting all sorts of different form factors under this platform (e.g., Macs, Apple TV, iPhone, iPod touch, Tablet, keyboard, touch/tilt only, camera, video, TV tuner).
For more fodder on the topic, check out the post:
Apple, TV and the Smart Connected Living Room
Cheers,
Mark
The idea here would be to have a detachable dock type keyboard.
It would remain on your desk, so by plugging you tablet you get mini-laptop.
You could even carry it with you attached to the keyboard, if you feel the need.
But ultimately it would be a multi-touch tablet to my satisfaction.
Keyboard dilemma? Bluetooth keyboard support, plus an elegant tablet stand. No attached physical keyboard — no way, no how.
Anyway, as Brian points out Munster has little to no predictive abilities when it comes to unannounced Apple products.
2010 looks like a mighty long time to me. We need it this year.
I guess it will be more than just a larger iPod touch.
Otherwise they could have launched it tomorrow morning.
I think the complexity comes from the OS development.
It will be at least very close to Snow Leopard, if not it.
That thing will a be a true Mac computer, in a tablet form.
Connected to App Store, MobileMe, iTunes, 3G network, etc.
Multi Touch, iWork, iLife, iChat, eBook, handwritting, haptic.
Apple will blow people mind again with a never-seen-before product.
That thing will be the core of the mobile computing revolution.
I am sure Steve jobs has been working on it behind the scene.
Leave of absence? From day-to-day operation maybe.
When it comes to innovation, the guy is still around.
That thing will be his ultimate legacy, his Mona Lisa.
OSX will reach worldwide double digit market share with this one.
By the time Microsoft and their partners come with something,
Apple will be so far ahead, it'll be time to say GAME OVER !!!
Gene also said recently that he doesn't expect Apple to unveil new iPhone hardware on June 8. I think he needs more sleep.
The tablet is coming. I bet Steve Jobs hates having a hinge on his laptop. Seriously.
Well, considering that Apple makes bluetooth based wireless keyboards and mice, it's not hard to imagine those being an option if you really wanted alternative input options. And a unit with no moving parts is much more reliable by design than the "fold and flip" units available on the windows site. The tech is ready, now it's a question of battery life I'll bet…
What Gene is saying is he doesn't expect a netbook type machine or larger iPod this summer. But he also didn't know about the iPhone, the iPod touch, the MacBook Air, or any other product Apple has announced in the past 10 years, so in the end, he's not saying much.
Wow, i assume most comments written by real supper geeks (minority) who completely forgot about majority…
i just don't get why people get pissed off about some speculation, in the end no one is telling you that you must buy it and no one really cares if you are going to buy it or not because most probably will without your opinion. I am most sure apple will come up with something that will surprise us all, something that will delight most and piss off some, there always gonna be haters and lovers but no reason to jump on each other with bunch of negativity and demands… Let's leave demands and decisions to to Steve J 
i think this product will be wonderful and at this point we can just speculate about features and details until we see the real thing.