Apple 2.0

Mac news from outside the reality distortion field

Apple's stealth rally


7-mos fever chartApple's (AAPL) shares Monday morning shrugged off bad news to soar past $128.24 share. The iPhone had just been unseated by Research in Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry in NPD's latest smartphone rankings, but by close of day Apple's stock had climbed to $132.08, up 3.8% for the day.

What the significance of that $128.24 price point?

That was Apple's closing price on Friday Sept. 26, 2008. The following Monday, Morgan Stanley’s Kathryn Huberty and RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky turned bearish on Apple. Citing a ChangeWave survey that showed a sharp drop in consumer plans to buy the company's computers, each downgraded the stock from buy to neutral.

Apple went into freefall. By 10:30 a.m. its shares had dropped 16% — wiping out $18 billion in the company's market capitalization in the space of 60 minutes. Apple closed at $105.26 that day, down 18% — its worst sell off in eight years.

The stock fell with the rest of the market over the next four months and hit bottom on Jan. 20 at $78.20. It has been outperforming the NASDAQ ever since.

According to Fly On the Wall — which calls Apple's recent climb a "stealth rally" — resistance levels to watch are at $130.00, $132.20 and $134.79. Support is at $127.50.

RIM, meanwhile, closed at $74.3, up 2.77% for the day. RBC's Abramsky raised his price target from to $90 from $80 following positive comments from RIM management.

See also

Atlanta boy:

Practically everything on the Blackberry is Microsoft based. If you can't justify or back up your comments then perhaps you should try wasting hundreds of dollars on a Blackberry to find out for yourself. Then, when your problems occur, you can go into your service provider and have them give you all their Microsoft excuses as to why it may not work properly with an Apple computer. Or why it doesn't work with any computer. Or why it doesn't work at all. It's funny, Microsoft owners always expect their products to not work or to always crash, so dissatisfaction is second nature. In the IT fix it world I guess they call that job security. In the consumer world we call it JUNK.

Posted By Tom, Bismarck, ND: May 5, 2009 4:37 PM

<<I am waiting to buy an iPhone once Apple opens up its service provider contract to include others or goes to Verizon. AT&T was a mistake IMO. Anyway, I own a Blackberry Pearl, I liked it for the first month but I have had problems with it ever since. I should have known because it was Windows based it would be a headache. Some of the problems: Totally goes black and locks up and won’t charge. Won’t ring so you have to take out the battery and and hope it resets itself and it won’t sync with anything. Just a complete nightmare. I agree with everyone’s assessment of why RIMM sold more phones. Lets hope Apple lets go of AT&T and opens up its iPhone to new carriers.>>

no wonder Apple makes products for dumb people..

Posted By Atlanta: May 5, 2009 11:30 AM

I am waiting to buy an iPhone once Apple opens up its service provider contract to include others or goes to Verizon. AT&T was a mistake IMO. Anyway, I own a Blackberry Pearl, I liked it for the first month but I have had problems with it ever since. I should have known because it was Windows based it would be a headache. Some of the problems: Totally goes black and locks up and won't charge. Won't ring so you have to take out the battery and and hope it resets itself and it won't sync with anything. Just a complete nightmare. I agree with everyone's assessment of why RIMM sold more phones. Lets hope Apple lets go of AT&T and opens up its iPhone to new carriers.

Posted By Tom, Bismarck, ND: May 5, 2009 10:37 AM

Face it people, these guys made a prediction. they didn't ascertain 100% scientific accuracy.

Back in the day before the iPod, I'm sure no analyst anywhere could have predicted Apple's resurgence. These guys make the best guess given the publicly known information at the time. The market decides how it acts on this information.

And since this drop in stock price didn't affect Apple in any measureable way, what are you complaining about? Did their cash reserves and bank acounts dry up when the price dropped? No. Did Did they have to shut down their R&D department and delay the new OS? No.

This is just how the market works; if you don't like it, don't invest.

Posted By Seltzer, Texas: May 5, 2009 10:12 AM

Apple is the most pundit manipulated stocks. So many financial advisers talk it down at regular, causing its price to tank. Then it starts going back up again when people realize its intrinsic worth – that Apple is a great company with lots of money and is a money making machine.

I love it.

I buy on the low, reap the benefits as the stock goes up again.

I love it.

Watch. Apple's stock goes up and down in cycles. It's fairly predictable.

Posted By James Katt, Monterey, CA: May 5, 2009 9:33 AM

I've never understood how asking someone what they might buy in the next three months could be a barometer of anything besides wishful thinking. To use such numbers as justification to decimate a company which has been nothing if not well-run for the past decade borders on criminal.

Posted By Steven, Atlanta GA: May 5, 2009 1:31 AM

There isn't much of a battle over which is better of Apple Mac vs (Windows) PC. The Mac is also a PC because it runs Windows (very well I must say). It's a given that the Mac is has better quality (judged by customer satisfaction) just like it's a given that most (Windows) PCs are cheap.

Anyway, Apple is in a class of it's own because they make quality computers and a quality smartphone. iPhone sales will soar along with the stock price when the new iPhone is introduced at a sold-out WWDC.

By the way, Microsoft share prices dropped a nickel today while the general market went up quite a bit.

Posted By iphonerulez, Brooklyn, New York: May 4, 2009 9:43 PM

And, just back to that Changwave survey that triggered Katie Huberty to downgrade Apple twice in a week. When the very next survey reversed itself, did you see Paul Carton issue a retraction for his previous negative conclusion? Did you see Katie Huberty make any change to her Apple price targets? Nope. The silence was deafening. The only thing I saw was Paul patting himself on the back, by cherrypicking things that he sort of got right.

Posted By KenC, Gardiner, Maine: May 4, 2009 9:30 PM

I've been beating this drum for a while, but the Changwave Survey is unrealiable for anything but long-term trends. Unfortunately, as PED points out, back in the Fall, Changewave, aka Paul Carton, interpreted his latest survey as bearish in the short-term for Apple computer sales. This triggered Katie Huberty to issue two downgrades in one week, citing Carton's Changewave Survey.

The very next Changwave survey, showed that Apple computer buying sentiment had bounced back, to its previous level, which had been pretty stable for many, many surveys prior. In other words, it's become clear that that Changewave survey that triggered Katie Huberty's downgrades was ANOMALOUS.

The reason why these surveys are anomalous is because they are 90-day buying sentiment survey. There should be some smoothing of the data. And yet, when they do surveys monthly, the results show far more bumpiness than should be expected.

Carton should NOT be drawing short-term conclusions based upon his poorly constructed surveys. Like many stats that PED uses in-Stat, Gartner, NPD, etc., long-term trends are the safest and most reliable conclusions one can draw. Carton's attempt to glean short-term conclusions, is not borne out by the data.

Posted By KenC, Gardiner, Maine: May 4, 2009 9:28 PM

"Don’t worry that the stock is going up on no news…"

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news!

Rumor: New iPhones and new iTablet

Stay tuned for news on June 8th.

Posted By pk de cville, VA: May 4, 2009 6:26 PM

This article (along with many others out there today) completely fails to mention that there was a Buy One Get One free promotion on the BlackBerry Curve. Sure RIMM may have sold more phones this quarter than Apple, but I'm sure this promotion hurts the bottom line.

Posted By Carter, Richmond: May 4, 2009 6:03 PM

I think it's really important to note that the Blackberry buying surge is attributed to the 'Buy One, Get One Free' campaign. I'm sure Apple could move a huge number of iPhones if they gave them away, too!

Posted By Iain, Cambridge, MA: May 4, 2009 5:49 PM

ever wondered why these comments are only enabled for Apple articles and not for other articles on Fortune?

Looks like someone want to see bunch of idiots fighting over PC is better or a Mac

Posted By Ravi, ATL: May 4, 2009 4:50 PM

I’m hoping for 3 new iPhones:

A low end model (smaller screen), one that is same sized as a current one but with an improved hardware and a netbook sized one (larger screen)

you want to use a netbook sized phone? can you imagine putting that next to your ear?

Posted By Ravi, ATL: May 4, 2009 4:48 PM

Let's see if BB Curve can keep being number one after iPhone 3.0 hits the stores. Maybe,just maybe, people are holding out for it and not purchasing the iPhone 2.0.

I'm hoping for 3 new iPhones:

A low end model (smaller screen), one that is same sized as a current one but with an improved hardware and a netbook sized one (larger screen).

Only time will tell.

Posted By Jim, Stuttgart, germany: May 4, 2009 4:30 PM

@Dave Emery – I hear that for sure! Why limit your phone to 1 carrier that half the US hates?

Posted By Jason NorCal, CA: May 4, 2009 4:21 PM

Whats most interesting is that Abramsky and Huberty were proven to be completely fanatstically and utterly wrong with their predictions, these last 6 months and yet it has taken this long for the stock to recover….

Posted By Greg M, Dallas, TX: May 4, 2009 3:57 PM

Keep buying Apple, the higher the better this month. Don't worry that the stock is going up on no news, the momentum is there and will continue as long as you keep buying.

Posted By Randy B Boca Raton, FL: May 4, 2009 3:37 PM

I wonder how much of the Blackberry's appeal is due to its availability on more than just AT&T? I for one would probably have an iPhone if it were on Verizon (even though that would cause me problems carrying that phone into customer locations, due to the camera…)

Posted By David Emery, Reston VA: May 4, 2009 3:37 PM

I have a really revolutionary idea:

Let's not watch "resistance levels" and instead look at the fundamentals of a company. Are they profitable? Are they growing? Is debt under control? Is there cash in the bank and/or good credit available to them to weather downturns? Are they innovating on a regular basis so that their product line diversified? Do they have good management?

That's what I learned investing is about, and you know what? It works.

So answer those questions about Apple, and then decide on your own whether you'd like to take a part of the company for yourself.

Posted By Patrick J, Naples, Florida: May 4, 2009 3:26 PM

You wrote almost half of a story.

You should have included:

Morgan Stanley and RBC were utterly wrong in their whimsy about consumer demand for Apple products. They initiated the panic selling, not consumers. Morgan Stanley was off-base about Apple for years before they made that ignorant move, and weren't qualified to make that assessment.

Are you *certain* that you aren't inside the reality distortion field?

ex ped: Been there, done that. See link to "Why Apple's shares took a nosedive" at the bottom of the item.

Posted By Don Bowey, Washougal WA -dbowey@comcast.net: May 4, 2009 3:12 PM

So,finally Mrs.Huberty ( the worst analysr concerning Apple with nearly no insight and less imagination) and Mr.Abramsky achieved what they had wanted:

1) They gave an negative comment, based on "nothing"

2) They AAPL-stock went into freefall

3) Clearly, MS and RBC bought a lot of AAPL and both are smiling

If you ask me, this is stock-manipulation par excellence.

Posted By Martin Beutling,Oberhausen,Germany: May 4, 2009 3:05 PM
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Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Steve Jobs, goes the old joke at Apple, is surrounded by a reality distortion field; get too close and you believe what he's saying. Apple has made believers out of millions of customers — and made a lot of investors rich — but Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple – and watching Steve Jobs operate — since 1982.
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