How the App Store got to 1 billion downloads
The App Store odometer that's been running on Apple's (AAPL) home page for nearly two weeks rolled over into 10-digits Thursday afternoon shortly before 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).
To hit a billion downloads in 9 months and 12 days is certainly a milestone worth trumpeting, and Apple's executives did their share of horn-blowing during Wednesday's quarterly conference call.
"We are within hours of reaching our 1 billionth download," said CFO Peter Oppenheimer. (It turned out to be nearly 24 hours, but who's counting?). "[It's] an astounding number given the short nine-month history of the App Store."
One of the factors feeding that growth, and in turn being fed by it, is the size of the App Store's installed base. COO Tim Cook put it at 37 million — a fact, by the way, that gives analysts a fresh handle on the number of iPod touches in circulation. (Because Apple has reported sales of 21.17 million iPhones over the past 7 quarters, we now know that it has also sold at least 15.83 million iPod touches.)
The other factor is the quality and sheer quantity of applications in the store — more than 35,000 according to Apple (and 37,462 according to 148Apps, which keeps an independent running count). Developers clearly find a lot to like in this platform: a big installed base, a comfortable development environment, and a friction-free payment system whereby Apple handles all the back-office drudgery for a 30/70 revenue split.
How long can this breakneck growth continue? Although the rate at which new apps are being added to the store has started to slow, the rate of downloads is still accelerating — as evidenced by the slopes of the curves in the fever charts below.
But all this could change in the next quarter. The new software development kit (SDK) and the new operating system — iPhone OS 3.0 — coming this summer could launch a new generation of more powerful apps. And if the rumors are true and the company has a new family of App Store-ready portable devices in the works, the flow of new applications could accelerate once again.
Apple may not be "years" ahead of Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Nokia (NOK) and Research in Motion (RIMM), as Cook and Oppenheimer claimed at least four times Wednesday. But it is certainly many many months.
UPDATE: Apple issued a press release Friday and announced the grand prize winner of its one billion app countdown contest: Connor Mulcahey, 13, of Weston, CT.
Yes, Phillip, Apple is for certain "years" ahead of any of those folks you mentioned. Here's how you can tell: can you name one of those entities you listed which could have an application store up and running any time soon which could possibly boast a billion downloads in its first nine months? How about 12 months? 18 months? A couple years? I didn't think so. That is the definition of "years ahead."
@Richard,
I think if you do a little back-of-the-envelope calculating you will realize that downloads are independent downloads and do NOT include updates.
1B divided by 37M devices is about 27apps each. You yourself have admitted to downloading 50.
Dan Frommer of AlleyInsider has confirmed with Apple, that these are independent downloads, not updates. It's nonsensical to include updates, if you really think about it. It would totally invalidate the point of announcing 1B downloads.
"iPhone and the iPod Touch, are true POCKET COMPUTERS." – Sacto Joe.
Guys, Sactoe Joe is right on the money. Apple is really winning here, and by far… I am really impressed.
I used to overlook the App Store since the vast majority of apps are kids level.
Then I took a look at their ad on the back cover of this month Fortune magazine.
They show the iPhone with a list of productivity apps for small businesses.
You got credit card processing, FedEx mobile, voice to text conversion, etc. apps.
iPhone = Computer. 1B downloads prove it, making obvious the release of a larger iPod touch… as a tablet.
A comment about the 1B figure. I imagine this figure includes not only apps, but also updates. I have downloaded about maybe 50 apps, and have deleted a few, to leave me with about 25 on iTunes, and about the same number on my iPod Touch.
However, I have downloaded a lot of updates to those 50 apps. I would guess somewhere around 100. Some apps will have lots, especially if fast to market and buggy eg Zynga Poker, but some have had no apps, like Apple's Holdem.
So I would suggest that the 1B apps is not 1B apps working on customers iPhones/iPod Touchs, but a far smaller amount. Plus of course, most of your time is spent on a small number of apps (ie 80% of time on 20% of apps). Most of my time (excluding safari) would be spent on Twitteriffic, Zynga Poker, Ebay, Wordbook, and games. On Apple apps, email and safari, weather and stocks would get daily (or near daily use) use. Can't wait for 3.0. Cheers.
What Apple has developed isn't, as many think, a "better smartphone". What they've developed, in the iPhone and the iPod Touch, are true POCKET COMPUTERS. And THAT is why they are years ahead of the competition!
It's going to take a Microsoft to build a corresponding set of products, and they're going to need to do it in close cooperation with a superior harware company. And even then, they'll be starting out years behind.
Apple's future is so bright you gotta wear shades….
As a platform, Apple is clearly years ahead of everyone else and they're about to step on the gas with new hardware and the iPhone 3.0 operating system this summer. Nobody else has the development tools + the distribution channel + operating system.
Application cycles are a lot longer than hardware cycles as amply demonstrated by stalwarts such as the Microsoft Office software. Apple was established since 1978 and the application cycles of Apple are legendarily long because of the quality and capability over other platforms. As the breadth and depth of iPhone application grows the longer term onus would be shifted from individual iPhone applications to collaborative iPhone applications which stress groups of applications developed on the same iPhone platform working together as processes at which point the iPhone users would be downloading from different application supplies for process driven purposes vastly increasing the quantity and frequency of application downloads perhaps into the trillions in a short time.
I would suspect that some of the new App slowdown arises due to developers shifting focus to 3.0 and the related learning and ramp time. It'll be interesting to see what the chart looks like in 6 months.
I dunno, since the rate is accelerating, Apple may be "years ahead". Everyone thought it would be easy to catch Apple's iTunes in the music market, but they've only gotten further and further behind. If, as you note, Apple is able to release a whole slew of devices or maybe just one more device, the iTab, then they may be "years ahead", which in the tech business seems like a lifetime.
Creative accounting.
I had to download the same apps multiple times due to many crashes. When the app stops working you need to delete and redownload all your apps again and again.