Apple building 5-6 million new iPhones – Analyst
Adding his voice to the drumbeat of speculation about Apple's (AAPL) future iPhone plans, Kaufman Bros.' Shaw Wu weighed in early Wednesday with a new report from his supply chain and industry sources.
Among his findings:
- Two out of three. Wu had heard that there are three new iPhones in the works, but based on clues that developers are finding in the beta iPhone 3.0 software, he now believes "only two will see the light of day."
- iPhone Sr. and iPhone Jr. Wu hears that one of the new iPhones will have longer battery life and a much more powerful processor capable of running more complex apps. The other would be a less-powerful "junior" iPhone.
- Millions of iPhones. Wu's sources indicate a "build plan" for the new models in the 5 million to 6 million unit range, considerably higher than his current 4.5 million estimate for the September quarter (fiscal Q4).
- Timing is critical. Wu is still not sure whether the new iPhones will ship in June or July. If the latter, the June quarter could be a tough one for Apple. Wu was expecting Apple to sell 3.2 million iPhones in the March quarter (fQ2) and 3.7 million in the June quarter (fQ3). But all bets are off if the new iPhones don't arrive until late June or July, and customers who were thinking about buying the current model hold out for the new ones.
- AT&T may cave. Wu's sources indicate a "high likelihood" that AT&T (T) will come out with more flexible "tiered" data plans to replace the one-size-fits-all $30 a month unlimited plan that has run into resistance among newly price-conscious consumers.
Although Wu maintains a "buy" rating on Apple with a $120 price target, he pulled it off Kaufman's special "focus list" last month as its share price began to close in on his target. The risk-reward is "less compelling" now, he writes, "than when the stock was in the $80-$90 range."
I just wish Jesus was here, then the new iPhones would be here with all the features everyone wants. It would be an Easter miracle.
Apple needs these extra phones b/c I believe iphones will become the norm for all cell phones. All phones will eventually go the iphone route.
Slow news day, Phil?
ex ped: Just catching up on your reading, Randy? That item was posted yesterday.
I'm going to write an iPhone app where people can bet when the next iPhone comes out and how many units will sell. I'm gonna make da millions!
@greg
iPhone is not doing well in India because India is not ready for it – no 3G connection, sorry to say majority can't afford it, I believe they pay for the phone outright, etc.
As for China it is an unknown quantity so let's not jump to conclusion.
As for Jobs health, it is all perception by the media and pundits, so far they have being doing well without him.
His health issue had been used by the pundits to profit themselves nothing else.
So will the "much more powerful processor capable of running more complex apps." allow background processing for apps?
AppleInsider has reported that ATT is scrambling "to upgrade to its 3G mobile data service in anticipation of a tenfold increase in network traffic from new iPhone hardware expected to go on sale in June"
This rumor about a more powerful processor makes a lot sense when combined with the recent rumor about a premium apps section of the iTunes Store. A more powerful processor would require more powerful apps to differentiate themselves somehow in the store and ensure that lower powered models don't accidentally purchase them.
Apple may face stagnation in coming days. If one goes by India's example, iPhone may not turn out to be an instant success in China. Steve Jobs' poor health is expected to hurt the company.
For more check out
http://www.stockozone.com/2009/04/apple-iphone-is-doomed-to-fail-in-china.html
US is in a spiraling recession, with still no end in sight. Maybe its time to mark those iphones: designed AND build in California?!!
I know I wont pay thousand bucks a year in service charges, plus ATT imposed charges, taxes and fees are highly questionable… I think in few months those guys are going to sit on those unsold phones.
Apple can build as many iPhones as they want. The trick is to sell them all. Hopefully, Apple will be able sell at least as many iPhones this year as they did last year. The apps should be a driving force to sell iPhones in quantity.
2 different iPhone models?
There are many rumors about that.
Some say there'll be a new iPhone.
Others, there'll be one for emmerging markets.
Now this article is telling about Jr. and Sr.
Who to believe… I guess June will settle the case.
Kinda funny – Wu has to add an ominous note at the end because HE does not personally know when the phones will ship. These guys crack me up.
I did and still do believe that the there is one iphone and the more powerful processor is the 10" tablet that will be a like a more powerful ipod touch.
It will have wifi 'n' and 3G internet connection for basic functions and ease of travel not to mention the HUGE possibility for "next gen" apps that we got a preview of at the iphone 3.0 preview. The apps are about to become everyday use items. Inventory, healthcare, etc. the possibilities are amazing. Way to go Apple.
Why would the June quarter be tough because of even ZERO iPhone sales? The deferred revenue method greatly smoothes earnings and revenue. In the June quarter (which we are in right now) iPhone will generate 24 cents EPS with ZERO sales, and only 6 cents more with even 5 million sold.
This deferred revenue story has been beaten to death, but it's nearly pointless to keep mentioning it because people still don't get it.
No wonder Apple can surprise to the upside every quarter.
Apple could sell all those iPhones and more if they dumped ATT as the only carrier. ATT has the most dropped calls of ANYONE in the business … pure garbage network. Also get a removable battery …