16% of teens, 30% of professionals plan to buy iPhones
Two surveys released Tuesday, one of American teenagers, the other of professionals and early adopters, show interest in Apple's (AAPL) iPhone holding steady despite increased competition from Research in Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG) and Palm (PALM).
In its biannual "Taking Stock With Teens" survey, Piper Jaffray reported that the iPhone remains popular among U.S. teenagers — although it's not as hot as it was immediately following the launch of the iPhone 3G last July. Sixteen percent of those surveyed in March planned to buy an iPhone in the next six months, down from 22% in October.
The number of teens who actually own iPhones, however, remained flat at about 8%. Piper Jaffray's Andrew Murphy attributes the descrepancy between those who aspire to and those who actually own iPhones to parental sticker shock at AT&T's (T) rates. "Teens definitely want the iPhone," says Murphy, "but expensive data plans may be the limiting factor in parents' minds."
The survey of adults, conducted in mid-March by ChangeWave Research, showed a similar pattern, but at a significantly higher level of interest. Among the 4,292 relatively well-heeled cell phone owners who responded, 37% planned to buy a BlackBerry in the next six months, 30% planned to buy an iPhone and 4% planned to buy a Palm.
As research director Paul Carton notes, interest in Palm — having almost flat-lined — is growing measurably in advance of the expected release of the Palm Pre. Interest in the iPhone peaked last summer, when 56% of ChangeWave types said they planned to buy the new model. Interest in RIM's BlackBerries peaked, although not as sharply, in December, after the release of its new models.
Asked about the new iPhone 3.0 operating system that Apple has said it will release this summer, one in five ChangeWave respondents said they'd be even more likely to buy an iPhone in the future. When asked specifically about possible new iPhones and price points, they returned these results:
- 9% said they are likely to buy a 32GB iPhone 3G ($299)
- 11% said they are likely to buy a 16GB iPhone 3G ($199)
- 8% said they are likely to buy the 8GB Traditional iPhone ($99)
All of which bodes well for Apple, according to Carton.
Palm has a tougher challenge, he says. Not only are BlackBerry and iPhone owners remarkably loyal to their providers (only 4% of RIM customers and 1% of Apple customers said they were likely to switch to a Palm), but Palm has tied its fate to Sprint, a carrier that only 1% of respondents want to switch to.
Back in the teen survey, Murphy attributes much of the iPhone's popularity to the penetration of the iPod and iTunes Store among this cohort. The iPod's market share has held steady at 86% over the past 12 months, and although only 19% of teens planned to buy a new MP3 player this coming year (down from 34% six months ago), 100% of those who did planned to buy iPods.
Meanwhile, iTunes now enjoys a 97% market share among teens — up from 81% a year ago — with No. 2 RealNetworks hanging on at 2%.
"Apple's dominance in the consumer electronics and online music markets is going seemingly unchecked," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster in a separate report to clients. "We believe that the teen demographic is a critical component of long-term growth in the digital music and mobile markets, and Apple is taking its leading position in music and moving aggressively into the mobile market."
The recession didn't seem to play a large role in either the Piper Jaffray or ChangeWave reports, although neither survey focused on the poor or recently unemployed. The main group of 600 teens surveyed by Piper Jaffray enjoyed an average household income of $73,000; another 9% had household incomes of $100,000.
The ChangeWave survey, according to its literature, is drawn from "a group of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals — as well as early adopter consumers — who work in leading companies of select industries. They are credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives on the frontline of technological change."
They are not, presumably, standing in the unemployment lines.
[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @ philiped]
what is the big deal about the pre? haven't you guys realized that consumer electronics has little to do with "better hardware"? The iphone is a clear level below the HTC pro in this regard, but the iphone is CLEARLY superior to the HTC… Palm pre is going to end up exactly the same as the 50 other touch screen smartphones to come out since iPhone. Just watch. I can see it, and I don't even like apple.
actually, Rim has taken Pre's idea incorporating both Touch and QWERTY in it's Storm 2. Rim is getting paranoia surrounded by big international conglomerates and innovative competiters.
These stats are misleading especially when you consider that the Palm PRE is yet to be released. If the PRE is the to bring about the 'creative destruction' many in the tech or wireless world anticipate, then how can you make a comparison of the iPhone and Blackberry with the PRE? It is foolish because 99.99% of teens and adult have yet to see a PRE in action. Your comparison is fine when comparing the iPhone with Blackberries but that is where it should stop. The Pre has no similarities to any prior Palm products. Its DNA is of a much higher order, which to date no one has come close to emulating, yes that includes the mighty iPhone!
Once the Pre is released we will not be exchanging missives about Apple and Blackberry pies. The Pre will be the dawn of a new generation of phones, a form of 'creative destruction' that leave the competition in the dust, especially when you consider its advantages: 1. Better Hardware, 2. Better OS, WebOS, and 3. Better platform for data downloads; Sprint. Remember Sprint has the most reliable and fastest data download platform in the nation and don't let the spin masters at ATT and VZ mislead you. Remember Sprint is the only major Telecom that offers 4G, ATT and VZ at this moment only have hyperbole to offer.
Seriously, how can the blackberry not be blamed for promoting rash email and stock market activities causing the Wall Street and global meltdowns? blackberry was the only business phone around. eMail is the only vehicle for blackberry users in business communiction and decision making. Relying on blackberry eMail could be instrumental in having made bad judgements using incomplete, incoherent, unorganized, it is simply dysfunctional workstyle that Rim promoted and the blackberry users adopted. Imagine studying for your MBA relying on blackberry email. Instead of helping to address the eMail shortcoming for it's business customers by promoting solutions, Rim forged on building their entire business on eMail only while billing their phones as the only business phone in the world. This Rim attitude is very unprofessional and unbusiness-like. As businesses tank Rim abandoned the fallen businesses and spent billions fighting with Apple instead cloning the iPhone with their initial buggy Storm, concentrating on consumer phones and abandoning their business customers without any effort to solve their plights with solutions. Why would professional people buy products and services from such a company? Apple has always been in the business of producing solutions that make their customers happy and satisfied. Apple I capable and loyal to it's customers and customers are capable and loyal to Apple. Now that makes business sense to the professionals, and put smiles on the teens' faces.
As increasing number of laid off formerly blackberry wielding execs hit the soup kitchens no longer able to afford Big Macs, soup kitchens will give them free blackberries retrieved from the city dump sites.
Competition is good for the consumers. RIM had a great product but they were too comfortable because of lack of competition. Now they improved their product. The more they compete we will see better products in the market place with more reasonable price. I currently use an Iphone and so far it has been a great experience.
I want an iPhone, but data plans are too expensive.
I have the money for it, but cannot justify the expense.
"What cell phone had a 3 inch touch screen before the iPhone?"
My brother has an HTC phone through Sprint which he got before the Iphone was released.
Here’s a thought since so many blackb(Iphones) are being given away. Buy a Big Mac, Get a Blackb(Iphone) Free. This should help eleviate the unemployed execs’ loss of their beloved blackb(Iphone) which helped made so many wrong email-driven business decisions that crashed their companies and landed them in the bread line. The Problem with this scenario is that they were not sending wrong emails they were playing with their flashight apps and their FART apps toomuch to be concerned with the business on hand. Also theyneed Government hand out andhuge bonuses to pay the Exorbinant Monthly FEE's that ATT charges on the Iphone. Their is a reason after all that they did this survey not on a person making $30-$50K a year but on a family making in excess of $70-$75 K a year…very telling..the person makinga salary of $30-$50K can't afford to or is more frugal with his money then to WASTE it on IDIOTIC FEE's to Company ripping them off and trying to distract them with Flashights and FARTS… Good day I say Good Day!!
Posted By James, Toronto, Ontario : April 7, 2009 7:09 pm
Now let's replace Blackberry with Iphone and see if that is a more honest and salient observation!!
Why is it always a battle? RIM is a great company with a great product and so is Apple. I have both and I use them for different things.
Regardless, for Apple to have that kind of market share with one device (2 generations of that device) on one carrier with RIM having four devices released every year or two across all carriers is just impressive.
@ Frank Castle
You do not seem to get, and probably never will. The main focus of Apple products is the quality of the user experience. Therefore, when a product is released, they limit the features to what they believe to be essential – the purpose of which is to LIMIT THE EXPOSURE TO FAILURES.
When iPhone was released, there were indeed a few problems, but these were quickly resolved, largely do to the fact that they could be easily isolated. Still, the overall experience with the device itself was extremely positive. (Look at the user satisfaction ratings). Compare this to the release of the Storm where there were a lot of very significant problems, and these with the basic functionality. I still have seen no indication as to whether these have been resolved or not.
My point is simply this, the M.O. of Apple is not to throw on features just to get them in there, but works on a progression of adding these features when the platform is ready and well tested. If you are unhappy with the lack of feature X, then by all means, do not buy the device.
Yet overall, Apple is way in advance of the other providers. What cell phone had a 3 inch touch screen before the iPhone?
Another extreme example: Many years ago Windows had a problem with devices working on the platform. Before they could do anything about, they first had to invent a term for it: Plug & Play. Then, over several years, they made feeble attempts to implement it. Finally they got it kinda-sorta for many devices – tho certainly not all.
We Mac users were laughing. Long before there was a name for it, we simply took it for granted that you plugged something in, and it worked. (Oh sure, there were a few exceptions, but for the most part they simply work.)
For example – take you digital camera down to the nearest Apple store, along with your USB cable for it. You can plug it into any Mac there, and chances are it will immediately pop up iPhoto that will request if you want to download. No need to install drivers or other hassles. Just works that way out of the box.
I understand that apple only reports sales, they do not report returns. ATT is supposedly not allowed to track returns. They can only track the data plans that are particular to that phone but, the numbers are not released. Anyone going to check those numbers and see what the real story is?
I still James is still acting crazy.
Survey actually shows demand for Blackberry is higher then iPhones. Go figure this is an Apple Blog to spin any news in their favor.
RIM is clearing inventory. In case you don't follow Blackberry news they have at least 3 new devices due to hit Verizon this year as well others on other carriers. So they are clearing the channel. It's not anything new and what is wrong with consumers getting a good deal. Apple can run the same deal as they need to do something to spur sales outside of a yearly launch selling to the same consumers over and over.
Then again that has been Apple's driver for the static market share for years. Keep your users from having functionality they want, introduce a marginally better model. Repeat / Rinse / Repeat.
Works for iPods and Apple is seeing how the same selling technique doesn't apply to smartphones.
Here's a thought since so many Rim blackberries are being given away. Buy a Big Mac, Get a Blackberry Free. This should help eleviate the unemployed execs' loss of their beloved blackberries which helped made so many wrong email-driven business decisions that crashed their companies and landed them in the bread line.
Hardware is everything. Big bright screens and Petabyte hard disks, laser wave antennas, Ferraris, etc, these are all hardware. What are you saying thy hardware is not important?