Apple 2.0

Mac news from outside the reality distortion field

Apple's Snow Leopard may be delayed – analyst


mac_os_x_106_snow_leopard_dvdMac OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard, the update of Apple's (AAPL) current Macintosh operating system that Steve Jobs said would ship in "about a year" when he introduced it last June, may not arrive until later this summer or fall.

That's one of the nuggets of news offered by Kaufman Bros.' Shaw Wu in a report to clients issued Wednesday.

Among other findings Wu turned up in a check of his sources in Apple's supply chain and distribution network:

  • Mac build plans have increased. Due to stronger-than-expected reception of Apple's newly introduced Macs, Wu says that the Street's current estimates of 2.2 – 2.3 million Macs shipped in the March quarter may turn out to be on the low side.
  • New products in the works. Commenting on recent speculation about an Apple netbook, Wu says his sources suggest that "several initiatives" are being worked on, including perhaps a smaller MacBook Air or "MacBook mini" (essentially a netbook) and oversized iPod touches.
  • The Mac mini is a "sleeper hit." Wu is seeing "surprisingly positive feedback" on Apple's cheapest Mac. He would liked to have seen lower prices, but he says the $599 display-and-keyboard-less box is being "warmly received" for its  larger hard drive, faster processor and NVIDIA graphics chip.
  • Delayed quad-core iMac. Wu, like many other hardcore Mac users, was hoping for a quad-core iMac, as opposed to the dual-core machine Apple released last week. Now he says it makes more sense for Apple to wait for Snow Leopard, which takes better advantage of the quad core processors, and for lower-power parts from Intel that don't run quite so hot.

Wu's track record on Apple hardware predictions is mixed. He correctly predicted the release of new desktop Macs, but he also said that they would be unveiled two months earlier at Macworld, along with a new combination Apple TV/Time Capsule that never materialized. (link)

Apple has yet to respond to our request for comment.

As we now know from The John Stewart interview with Jim Cramer, most of the above article could be outright lies. Hello, SEC? Anybody home?

Posted By ND in MSP: March 13, 2009 11:33 AM

As we now know from The John Stewart interview with Jim Cramer, most of the above article could be outright lies. Hello, SEC? Anybody home?

Posted By ND in MSP: March 13, 2009 11:33 AM

"cynik must work for the finance industry if he’s writing code that he has no idea what it does."

I know what it does. I just don't know how it works. Or, i forget.

But it does work. I mean, it isn't pretty, and it wouldn't really surprise me if it crashed in a heap, but it seems to work ok.

People who think programing is an exact science are so deluded. There are so many ghosts in the machine, and so much is worked out on the fly.

And yes, I do write financial apps. Don't dis me, or I'll hunt down your credit card and send you to the poorhouse!

Posted By cynik: March 11, 2009 8:06 PM

"cynik must work for the finance industry if he’s writing code that he has no idea what it does."

I know what it does. I just don't know how it works. Or, i forget.

But it does work. I mean, it isn't pretty, and it wouldn't really surprise me if it crashed in a heap, but it seems to work ok.

People who think programing is an exact science are so deluded. There are so many ghosts in the machine, and so much is worked out on the fly.

And yes, I do write financial apps. Don't dis me, or I'll hunt down your credit card and send you to the poorhouse!

Posted By cynik: March 11, 2009 8:06 PM

cynik must work for the finance industry if he's writing code that he has no idea what it does.

Posted By Dreamdeceiver, Silicone Valley, CA: March 11, 2009 7:22 PM

cynik must work for the finance industry if he's writing code that he has no idea what it does.

Posted By Dreamdeceiver, Silicone Valley, CA: March 11, 2009 7:22 PM

"He correctly predicted the release of new desktop Macs this month, but he also said that they would be unveiled two months earlier at Macworld."

His predictions didn't come true. No new Mac at Macworld, and last month Wu stated that the iMac would be refreshed in June, "at the earliest."

Marketwatch, Feb. 24, 2009: "Wu said Apple's Mac business looks weak in the current quarter, and he isn't expecting the line of iMacs to be refreshed until June, at the earliest."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/apples-mac-sales-cause-worry/story.aspx?guid={174F40B9-AC9B-46C2-8AA3-83717B24E70C}

Posted By John, Dartford, UK: March 11, 2009 4:38 PM

"He correctly predicted the release of new desktop Macs this month, but he also said that they would be unveiled two months earlier at Macworld."

His predictions didn't come true. No new Mac at Macworld, and last month Wu stated that the iMac would be refreshed in June, "at the earliest."

Marketwatch, Feb. 24, 2009: "Wu said Apple's Mac business looks weak in the current quarter, and he isn't expecting the line of iMacs to be refreshed until June, at the earliest."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/apples-mac-sales-cause-worry/story.aspx?guid={174F40B9-AC9B-46C2-8AA3-83717B24E70C}

Posted By John, Dartford, UK: March 11, 2009 4:38 PM

Amazing! Robbie from Vegas remembered an article PED wrote from last April when he pointed out that Shaw Wu is having a hard time figuring out Apple's deferred revenues on the iPhone and AppleTV.

"AAPL's accounting treatment of iPhone and Apple TV revenue where hardware revenue is amortized over 2 years or 8 quarters remains somewhat confusing and is unprecedented" – Shaw Wu, April 2008.

I wrote an Opinion piece on that bit of nonsense as well, on MacDailyNews a year ago.

http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/17105/opinion/

Posted By KenC, Gardiner, Maine: March 11, 2009 1:08 PM

Amazing! Robbie from Vegas remembered an article PED wrote from last April when he pointed out that Shaw Wu is having a hard time figuring out Apple's deferred revenues on the iPhone and AppleTV.

"AAPL's accounting treatment of iPhone and Apple TV revenue where hardware revenue is amortized over 2 years or 8 quarters remains somewhat confusing and is unprecedented" – Shaw Wu, April 2008.

I wrote an Opinion piece on that bit of nonsense as well, on MacDailyNews a year ago.

http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/17105/opinion/

Posted By KenC, Gardiner, Maine: March 11, 2009 1:08 PM

Since Apple is never going to respond to your request for comment, it's going to become irritating to hear you say they haven't responded. In fact, it already is. Please stop.

I wonder if there isn't another aspect to the story of the operating system release date — aside from the expectations of stock analysts and press, both amateur and professional (sometimes a fine line between them in the reasoning-from-actual-evidence department).

The not-frozen feature set and release date of Windows 7 would, I think, enter into it. The best time, tactically, to ship Snow Leopard, is when, if not ASAP? Just before Windows 7 ships, but not leaving enough time for Microsoft to put in something 'borrowed' or something new.

ex ped: Apple is actually pretty good about responding. Some readers — and some editors — like to know that we've given them a chance. Should we deprive them just because you find it irritating?

Posted By GG, Los Angeles, CA: March 11, 2009 12:36 PM

Since Apple is never going to respond to your request for comment, it's going to become irritating to hear you say they haven't responded. In fact, it already is. Please stop.

I wonder if there isn't another aspect to the story of the operating system release date — aside from the expectations of stock analysts and press, both amateur and professional (sometimes a fine line between them in the reasoning-from-actual-evidence department).

The not-frozen feature set and release date of Windows 7 would, I think, enter into it. The best time, tactically, to ship Snow Leopard, is when, if not ASAP? Just before Windows 7 ships, but not leaving enough time for Microsoft to put in something 'borrowed' or something new.

ex ped: Apple is actually pretty good about responding. Some readers — and some editors — like to know that we've given them a chance. Should we deprive them just because you find it irritating?

Posted By GG, Los Angeles, CA: March 11, 2009 12:36 PM

Of the main points mentioned in your article, which is the most salient? A possible delay for the release of Snow Leopard? I think not. Given the current state of the economy, isn't your point that Mac build plans have increased "stronger-than-expected," due to the reception of new Macs the most interesting part of the article? So why doesn't your headline focus on the possibility that Mac sales in the current quarter may be higher than expected, according to analyst Shaw Wu? A possible delay of Snow Leopard, when Apple has always been vague about its release date seems rather insignificant. But I guess it gives you the negative headline today's Internet writers (a journalist would write a more well rounded article) seem to crave. Also, isn't the information about new products more important than the possible late release of Snow Leopard? Finally, I wouldn't call Mr. Wu's track record "mixed." I think abysmal is a better word. Remember, he's the analyst who lowered his outlook for Apple a few quarters ago, than raised it three weeks later — after the company reported stellar results. Alos, Wu admittedly doesn't understand Apple's accounting system for iPhone and iTV sales. And he supposed to be an analyst? Isn't this part of his job, to understand how a company reports its sales and earnings?

Posted By Robbie, Las Vegas, Nevada: March 11, 2009 12:21 PM

Of the main points mentioned in your article, which is the most salient? A possible delay for the release of Snow Leopard? I think not. Given the current state of the economy, isn't your point that Mac build plans have increased "stronger-than-expected," due to the reception of new Macs the most interesting part of the article? So why doesn't your headline focus on the possibility that Mac sales in the current quarter may be higher than expected, according to analyst Shaw Wu? A possible delay of Snow Leopard, when Apple has always been vague about its release date seems rather insignificant. But I guess it gives you the negative headline today's Internet writers (a journalist would write a more well rounded article) seem to crave. Also, isn't the information about new products more important than the possible late release of Snow Leopard? Finally, I wouldn't call Mr. Wu's track record "mixed." I think abysmal is a better word. Remember, he's the analyst who lowered his outlook for Apple a few quarters ago, than raised it three weeks later — after the company reported stellar results. Alos, Wu admittedly doesn't understand Apple's accounting system for iPhone and iTV sales. And he supposed to be an analyst? Isn't this part of his job, to understand how a company reports its sales and earnings?

Posted By Robbie, Las Vegas, Nevada: March 11, 2009 12:21 PM

I love to read all the uninformed information that Fortune regurgitates. Everything I have heard suggests that things are right on track. Maybe the dart slipped when he was throwing it.

Posted By KB, Waterbury VT: March 11, 2009 11:56 AM

I love to read all the uninformed information that Fortune regurgitates. Everything I have heard suggests that things are right on track. Maybe the dart slipped when he was throwing it.

Posted By KB, Waterbury VT: March 11, 2009 11:56 AM

Snow leopard is supposed to refine the existing OS. The idea is that the engineers can get inside the vast bulk of frameworks and API's and strip out a whole lot of redundant code. They also want to strip out redundant drivers for third party printers and peripherals.

The end result will be a much smaller operating system that works faster. But I am not surprised that it is going slowly.

Every programmer knows what it is like to finish a program and look back on the piles of code, with a sense of wonder. You kind of wonder if you could have done things an easier way. Because code is like language, you can say the same thing lots of different ways.

Maybe I am an unusually sloppy programmer, but I sometimes wonder if huge chunks of code are completely redundant, and then I erase them to "see what happens". This is because you forget why you did stuff. Sometimes you start doing something one way, then get inspiration and start doing it a different way. And you forget about the first bit of code, and it just kind of sits where it sits, not doing anything useful, but looking like useful code all the same.

But sometimes you go back through your code and you look at something you write and ask "WTF?", and then you delete it….. and the whole thing goes nuts, crashes, starts acting like a PC. So you go back and undelete the code, make the sign of the cross, and stop tinkering. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

So I think snow leopard might be one of these projects that depends on the "real" brains at Apple, the code monkeys, the software engineers. The people of Woz.

Those guys can't be hurried, and they can't be bought, and they can't be understood. They just do what they do, and somehow it works out when it works out.

I am patient, because I understand the overall aim and objectives of this project. I think Steve Jobs understands that the neatness of code, and the integrity of the code, is what ultimately drives the stability of the OS. And that is what makes Apple computers such a joy to use, and why folks who know will never use anything else.

Posted By cynik: March 11, 2009 11:34 AM

Snow leopard is supposed to refine the existing OS. The idea is that the engineers can get inside the vast bulk of frameworks and API's and strip out a whole lot of redundant code. They also want to strip out redundant drivers for third party printers and peripherals.

The end result will be a much smaller operating system that works faster. But I am not surprised that it is going slowly.

Every programmer knows what it is like to finish a program and look back on the piles of code, with a sense of wonder. You kind of wonder if you could have done things an easier way. Because code is like language, you can say the same thing lots of different ways.

Maybe I am an unusually sloppy programmer, but I sometimes wonder if huge chunks of code are completely redundant, and then I erase them to "see what happens". This is because you forget why you did stuff. Sometimes you start doing something one way, then get inspiration and start doing it a different way. And you forget about the first bit of code, and it just kind of sits where it sits, not doing anything useful, but looking like useful code all the same.

But sometimes you go back through your code and you look at something you write and ask "WTF?", and then you delete it….. and the whole thing goes nuts, crashes, starts acting like a PC. So you go back and undelete the code, make the sign of the cross, and stop tinkering. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

So I think snow leopard might be one of these projects that depends on the "real" brains at Apple, the code monkeys, the software engineers. The people of Woz.

Those guys can't be hurried, and they can't be bought, and they can't be understood. They just do what they do, and somehow it works out when it works out.

I am patient, because I understand the overall aim and objectives of this project. I think Steve Jobs understands that the neatness of code, and the integrity of the code, is what ultimately drives the stability of the OS. And that is what makes Apple computers such a joy to use, and why folks who know will never use anything else.

Posted By cynik: March 11, 2009 11:34 AM

There's very little meat there to support the headline. What exactly did Wu say about the delay? Further, "about a year" is quite open-ended. Nothing here points to anything that could reasonably be called a delay.

- Murphy Mac

Posted By Murphy, Charlotte, NC: March 11, 2009 11:06 AM

There's very little meat there to support the headline. What exactly did Wu say about the delay? Further, "about a year" is quite open-ended. Nothing here points to anything that could reasonably be called a delay.

- Murphy Mac

Posted By Murphy, Charlotte, NC: March 11, 2009 11:06 AM
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Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Steve Jobs, goes the old joke at Apple, is surrounded by a reality distortion field; get too close and you believe what he's saying. Apple has made believers out of millions of customers — and made a lot of investors rich — but Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple – and watching Steve Jobs operate — since 1982.
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