Mac sales bottomed out in February, says analyst
February is going to turn out to have been a dismal month for Mac sales — especially compared with last year — says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. But they should bounce back a bit in March, he adds.
The data on which Munster bases his predictions — domestic sales estimates made by the NPD Group — won't be released until next Monday, March 16. But that didn't stop Munster from posting the numbers shown in the chart above. (The last two data points are his estimates.)
"We expect Mac NPD to bottom out at around -12% y/y [year over year] in the month of Feb-09," he writes in a report to clients issued Tuesday. He cites two key factors:
- A tough comparison with February 2008, when unit sales got a bump from the new Macbook Air, which went on sale that month.
- A slowdown in Mac sales from customers anticipating the release of new machines — the iMacs, Mac minis, and Mac Pros introduced March 3.
March should look a little better for Apple thanks to sales of those new machines, says Munster. He expects NPD data to be flat for the month, which would leave Mac sales for Apple's second fiscal quarter down 6% — the first quarter of negative Mac sales growth since at least 2005.
The chart above shows both how strong Mac sales were at the start of 2008 and how much they have slowed with the onset of the recession.
The good news, according to Munster, is that the worst may be over. He expects "positive sentiment" to build after the February trough and push share prices up over the next several weeks.
Piper Jaffray's target for Apple (AAPL) is $180 per share. The stock closed Tuesday at $88.63 — up 6.64% for the day.
It's a dreadful chart, to be sure. But it's measuring sales growth! To obtain a clearer picture of this "bottoming out" process, use February 2007 as a comparative base with 1,000 units sold (for illustrative purposes only). In February, 2008, sales increased to 1,700 units. Then, in 2009, only 1,530 units were sold. In the midst of the worst economic downturn in memory, sales were 53% over the base year with no new hardware in the product mix. I'm sure Dell and HP would love to see such numbers!
It's a dreadful chart, to be sure. But it's measuring sales growth! To obtain a clearer picture of this "bottoming out" process, use February 2007 as a comparative base with 1,000 units sold (for illustrative purposes only). In February, 2008, sales increased to 1,700 units. Then, in 2009, only 1,530 units were sold. In the midst of the worst economic downturn in memory, sales were 53% over the base year with no new hardware in the product mix. I'm sure Dell and HP would love to see such numbers!
Really, what good does it do to compare year-over-year numbers at this point. The reality is month-to-month is the real trend to watch now that the baseline for everyone has been reset.
Really, what good does it do to compare year-over-year numbers at this point. The reality is month-to-month is the real trend to watch now that the baseline for everyone has been reset.
I love Apples but they don't love me. I have owned many Macs and a few Apple IIs. I was even one of the few Lisa owners. Now we have to part company. They are just too delicate. You see I have a 16 year old daughter. In 6 months she has destroyed 2 Mac books and a touch screen Ipod. None of which was really her fault (her cat bit the edge of her screen when it was trying to get petted) but none the less resulted in $4,000 worth of junk. At the same time her friends Dell was eaten by their Lab. It was fully covered under warranty. I love Apples, I just can't afford them anymore.
I love Apples but they don't love me. I have owned many Macs and a few Apple IIs. I was even one of the few Lisa owners. Now we have to part company. They are just too delicate. You see I have a 16 year old daughter. In 6 months she has destroyed 2 Mac books and a touch screen Ipod. None of which was really her fault (her cat bit the edge of her screen when it was trying to get petted) but none the less resulted in $4,000 worth of junk. At the same time her friends Dell was eaten by their Lab. It was fully covered under warranty. I love Apples, I just can't afford them anymore.
Hey wait, haven't the Mac sales “bottomed-out” also in November 2008? Just look at the chart!
Engaging in “Technical Analysis” is always a hopeless task, whether for predicting the direction of stock prices, Mac sales figures or the level of the next wave on a beach. That is what Munster does and it is pathetic, just as is his attempts to cheer-lead Apple. Note that I have not said that he wants to cheer-lead AAPL, even though if someone predicts $180 per share in real terms, they must be either delusional or insincere. In the case of Munster, this may be both, though I don’t claim that he does it for monetary gain, rather, because subconsciously, he is afraid that Apple will not survive (the nightmares of mid-90s) and he cheer-leads the price of AAPL to make sure Apple “survives” and he adds to it by drooling over Apple products and their potential.
On the risk of being moderated by Philip, I think that he should consider modifying the motto of this column. After all, it implies that he should be critical of the cult-like adulation of Apple. Not necessarily of Apple products, that are very good, probably have the best physical design etc. No, I mean the motto implies that Philip should be ruthlessly sarcastic to people like Gene (“Ecosystem”) Munster and Shaw (“Corporate DNA”) Wu who are self-appointed priests of the Apple cult. I can't understand how their employers pay them, these guys should (and I am sure that they would) pay their employers to cover Apple, the subject of their almost religious zeal. Look at the “Technology” area on the main page of CNNfn – although as I write this, it is unusually Apple-free, usually about 3 out of 5 (and sometimes 4 out of five) links are Apple related. I have nothing against Apple but I do like pointing out the obvious that no-one sees – how can it be that Apple, with miniscule weight in the broad technology arena gets this kind of promotion, for free from the media? This is not because journalists and editors are long AAPL, this is because they are happily “inside” the “field”. Philip?
Hey wait, haven't the Mac sales “bottomed-out” also in November 2008? Just look at the chart!
Engaging in “Technical Analysis” is always a hopeless task, whether for predicting the direction of stock prices, Mac sales figures or the level of the next wave on a beach. That is what Munster does and it is pathetic, just as is his attempts to cheer-lead Apple. Note that I have not said that he wants to cheer-lead AAPL, even though if someone predicts $180 per share in real terms, they must be either delusional or insincere. In the case of Munster, this may be both, though I don’t claim that he does it for monetary gain, rather, because subconsciously, he is afraid that Apple will not survive (the nightmares of mid-90s) and he cheer-leads the price of AAPL to make sure Apple “survives” and he adds to it by drooling over Apple products and their potential.
On the risk of being moderated by Philip, I think that he should consider modifying the motto of this column. After all, it implies that he should be critical of the cult-like adulation of Apple. Not necessarily of Apple products, that are very good, probably have the best physical design etc. No, I mean the motto implies that Philip should be ruthlessly sarcastic to people like Gene (“Ecosystem”) Munster and Shaw (“Corporate DNA”) Wu who are self-appointed priests of the Apple cult. I can't understand how their employers pay them, these guys should (and I am sure that they would) pay their employers to cover Apple, the subject of their almost religious zeal. Look at the “Technology” area on the main page of CNNfn – although as I write this, it is unusually Apple-free, usually about 3 out of 5 (and sometimes 4 out of five) links are Apple related. I have nothing against Apple but I do like pointing out the obvious that no-one sees – how can it be that Apple, with miniscule weight in the broad technology arena gets this kind of promotion, for free from the media? This is not because journalists and editors are long AAPL, this is because they are happily “inside” the “field”. Philip?
OS X 10.5.6 is Linux based? In that case you haven't been into IBM PC "for decades", possibly "decades ago"… There's nothing IBMish about PCs these days….
Tell you what, MAc is great, bit pricey, but great, lasts for ages, there are still people out there using G2-3s and feeling absolutely happy about that.
There's no surprise in this drop, it's all this bloody recession. It'll come back. If Palm won't take over with it's Pre… 
PS. For more iPhone related news pls check out: http://www.iphone2die4.com
The comment from Albany OR seems very uninformed.
First, the Mac's OS X in not Linux based. It is Unix based. More precisely it uses the Mach kernel.
About hardware architectures being different, OS X has been shown to run on a variety of non-Apple Intel-based PCs. It is going to become more and more difficult for Apple to justify their inflated hardware prices when a $400 netbook can run their software.
The comment from Albany OR seems very uninformed.
First, the Mac's OS X in not Linux based. It is Unix based. More precisely it uses the Mach kernel.
About hardware architectures being different, OS X has been shown to run on a variety of non-Apple Intel-based PCs. It is going to become more and more difficult for Apple to justify their inflated hardware prices when a $400 netbook can run their software.
Guys, this is a business article, not an article about which is better PC or MAC. Microsoft and Apple run on two very different philosophy's when it comes to operating systems. Microsoft is much more open Mac is very closed. For that reason they both have strengths and weakness's.
As for the article, yep, they took it on the chin but I tend to agree one up tic in March does not make a trend.
Guys, this is a business article, not an article about which is better PC or MAC. Microsoft and Apple run on two very different philosophy's when it comes to operating systems. Microsoft is much more open Mac is very closed. For that reason they both have strengths and weakness's.
As for the article, yep, they took it on the chin but I tend to agree one up tic in March does not make a trend.
Just because Apple runs on the Intel architecture, that doesn't mean it will run on any "Intel" PC, there are still significant differences in implementation of architectures.
I've been into IBM PC for decades…I recently stopped by an Apple store. Their new 10.5.6 O/S (Linux based) is very impressive, but so was the price.
After learning the US financial markets, Banks, payment industries and more have been hacked… and based on the fact…Windows can't be fixed. Apple by far is a better solution for most applications…
Just because Apple runs on the Intel architecture, that doesn't mean it will run on any "Intel" PC, there are still significant differences in implementation of architectures.
I've been into IBM PC for decades…I recently stopped by an Apple store. Their new 10.5.6 O/S (Linux based) is very impressive, but so was the price.
After learning the US financial markets, Banks, payment industries and more have been hacked… and based on the fact…Windows can't be fixed. Apple by far is a better solution for most applications…
Apple makes good products. However the internal hardware of an Apple or another PC is now the same. The software is what differentiates. However they demand a high price for their systems. I recently encouraged a friend to buy a PC based on price although I thought he might be better off with an Apple.
I wish Apple would open up their market by 1) Selling Apple software to run on any PC system. 2) Allowing other hardware vendors to sell into the Apple space. I think these two moves would dramatically increase Apple's market share.
Apple makes good products. However the internal hardware of an Apple or another PC is now the same. The software is what differentiates. However they demand a high price for their systems. I recently encouraged a friend to buy a PC based on price although I thought he might be better off with an Apple.
I wish Apple would open up their market by 1) Selling Apple software to run on any PC system. 2) Allowing other hardware vendors to sell into the Apple space. I think these two moves would dramatically increase Apple's market share.
I just can not believe how all of the Technology news on CNN and Fortune seems to hover around Apple. This very successful company takes it on the nose all the time!
Yet when all the high fliers on wall street needed to make THEIR books look better in a down economy, they sold Apple because it was one of the few winners they had.
It's still a winner and has a very loyal following. Remember! "Once you've gone MAC, You'll never go Back!" © Garrett Winslow, Las Vegas, NV.
I just can not believe how all of the Technology news on CNN and Fortune seems to hover around Apple. This very successful company takes it on the nose all the time!
Yet when all the high fliers on wall street needed to make THEIR books look better in a down economy, they sold Apple because it was one of the few winners they had.
It's still a winner and has a very loyal following. Remember! "Once you've gone MAC, You'll never go Back!" © Garrett Winslow, Las Vegas, NV.
Posted By Steve Klopp, Houston, Texas : March 11, 2009 11:03 am
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You see I have a 16 year old daughter. In 6 months she has destroyed 2 Mac books and a touch screen Ipod. None of which was really her fault (her cat bit the edge of her screen when it was trying to get petted) but none the less resulted in $4,000 worth of junk. At the same time her friends Dell was eaten by their Lab. It was fully covered under warranty. I love Apples, I just can’t afford them anymore.
Maybe your kids aren't responsible enough to be given a delicate laptop. Delicate because all it takes to destroy one is a 3 foot drop to the pavement. I know your daughter's Macbook was chewed on by a cat and Apple rightly did not cover this damage because it has nothing to do with the laptop's performance in normal use. You can always get your home insurance to cover these type of accidental damages.
I gave my then 6 year-old daughter an old iBook and so far, after almost 3 years, (she is now 9) it still works and in one piece.