In dismal economy, MacBook outlook slightly brighter
In a survey that found planned spending on consumer electronics at its lowest level since 2002, things are looking marginally better for Apple's laptop computers.
The ChangeWave Alliance survey — conducted among 3,115 consumers between Feb. 2 and Feb. 9 — found that of those who expected to buy a computer in the next 90 days, the percentage who planned to buy an Apple laptop was up 2 points, to 30%.
This follows a January survey that recorded the second sharpest dip in planned Mac purchases since ChangeWave starting tracking Apple's computers. The sharpest dip, reported last September, sparked a massive sell-off in Apple (AAPL) shares. See The survey that squashed Apple, Part 1 and Part 2.
ChangeWave research director Paul Carton notes that the January fall-off in Mac purchases predicted by his survey showed up, right on schedule, in the NPD data released one month later. See Report: Mac sales off 6% in January; iPod off 14%.
Meanwhile, things are not looking so good for the increasingly long-in-the-tooth iMac and Mac Pro lines. Planned purchases of Apple desktop computers, which had held steady in the January survey, fell a point in February, to 26%. A refresh of the iMac line, widely anticipated at January's Macworld Expo and now expected sometime this quarter, could turn that around.
"I expect we'll see Apple muddling through," Carton told reporters in a conference call Wednesday afternoon. But he added that while Apple's share of the pie may be growing slightly, the pie itself — that is, the percentage of consumers planning to buy any computer — has shrunk to the lowest level ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey: 6% for laptops and 4% for desktops. (In June, 2007, those numbers were 12% and 7%, respectively.)
Apple is holding up better than say, Dell (DELL), Carton suggests, because its customers continue to express satisfaction with their purchases, as indicated by the chart at right. More than 80% of Apple customers declared themselves to be "very satisfied" with their new computers. Most of the manufacturers of comparably-priced PCs found themselves in the 50% to 55% range.
As for the broader economy, a slight bump in planned consumer spending recorded in ChangeWave's January survey was completely wiped out in its most recent polling. Better than three-in-five U.S. respondents (61%) said they expect to spend less money over the next 90 days, a 4 point decline in one month. See the chart below:
When the red (spend less) and blue (spend more) lines crossed in January 2008, Carton declared that the U.S. economy was headed into a recession — a call that turned out to be right on the money.
From the ChangeWave Alliance Web site:
ChangeWave runs a proprietary research network of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals — as well as early adopter consumers — who spend their everyday lives on the frontline of technological change. (link)
@Bruce, if you think the charts are professional, then you must be from the 90s. The x-axis is totally misleading in trend analysis. The gaps should represent the actual time differences, between surveys to make for a valid trend analysis.
You need to read Paul Carton's blog, if you want to see his back-patting. In fact, his latest analysis he pats himself on the back for predicting NPD's January numbers, even though his survey is supposed to be for January to March. It's not March yet.
Just look at what Paul wrote last month, where he said Apple was in for some doom, because his survey showed results to be the worst in about 2 years. Of course, the survey totaled the same, 55%, as last September. That wasn't 2 years ago.
I don't know what axe Ken C. has to grind against Changewave, but I have found the articles and trends to be presented in a very professional manner, without the self-praise attributed to its authors. I also am aware of the extensive database that is used and how its sheer number of respondents lends to a pretty valid trend line.
Paul Carton's Changewave survey is a sham. They don't publish their error rate. They publish charts that imply trends, when the X-axis is not uniform. Sometimes the gaps between surveys is 1-month, and sometimes 3 months. Can they update their software to use charts from this millenium?
Worse, Paul likes to pat himself on the back for calls that he says he makes, when in fact he spins his results. He says he called January's drop in sales, according to NPD. But what is NPD measuring? Right, US retail, which misses most of Apple's sales. Second, isn't Paul measuring the next 90 days? So, how can he say his January survey is right when the next 90 days include February and March?
Lastly, Paul was calling for doom for Apple's sales. He said the January survey was the worst survey result in almost 2 years for Apple. Of course, if you add the desktop and laptop number you get 55%. If you only go back to September's survey you also get 55%. As PED notes, that September survey caused massive downgrades by Katie Huberty. Did we see massive drops in Mac sales in the Xmas quarter? No! Did Paul backpedal when his November survey seemed to contradict his September survey? No! He patted himself on the back!
Having Mac sales only down 6% is nothing, compared to the doom Paul was calling for. Just read his report from back then.
Paul is selling consulting services. He uses Apple to tout his report. It's not worth the paper it's written on. Sites that tout Paul's work are only doing his work for him. He's no better than Enderle, Drorak, Thurott, Cramer, Greenpeace and countless others, who know that talking about Apple generates hits.
You've got to be kidding me. Can you say "media bias". MacBook outlook looks basically unchanged since June '07.
ex ped: Except that half as many people plan to buy a laptop in the next 90 days as did in June '07.
If you need more, just Google Changewave.
Back in August 2007, not even a year and a half ago, they only had 11,000 members, or so they say. Now, they have 20,000?!? Are they serious? Do you know anyone who is a Changewave member? Back then, they stated that 3665 members took their survey. Nowhere near their so-called 20,000. Here's a link:
http://www.changewave.com/freecontent/viewarticle.html?source=/freecontent/2007/08/alliance-consumerPC-082107.html
Last March, the Survey was of only 3597 members, nowhere near their so-called 20,000. Here's a link:
http://blog.changewave.com/2008/04/smart_phone_apple_rim_google.html
And, if you don't think Changewave is trying to sell you something, in their blog, they embed advertisements, "Let the ChangeWave Alliance take some of the guesswork out of investing and help you grow rich. Click here to make sure you're riding the next wave to amazing profits." Then they link you to their Founder's page Tobin Smith. You can see it here:
https://iplacereports.com/index.asp?sid=8MW123
Only $349 a year to subscribe to all of Tobin's tips! Given all the sham artists and products out there, like Madoff and Stanford, you'd think people would be a little more discerning in whom they trust.
ex ped: The e-mail come-ons from Tobin Smith are an embarrassment. But I've found Paul Carton's reports — despite the back-patting — to be useful.