Tracking the iPhone's bubble of hype
Think of the jagged light blue line in the fever chart at right as the bubble of hype that keeps Apple's (AAPL) iPhone floating above of its competitors.
What you're looking at is a snapshot of a Google Trends chart comparing the number of times the word "iPhone" appears in a Google search request with the words "Palm" (PALM), Research in Motion's (RIMM) "BlackBerry," Microsoft's (MSFT) "Windows Mobile" and Google's (GOOG) "Android."
The full chart — going back to 2004 — and the color key are pasted below the fold. Or you can click here to recreate the chart on your Web browser.
Google Trends is a powerful tool. It has been used, most famously, to monitor influenza outbreaks by tracking flu-related Google searches — a epidemiological early warning sign that turns out to be more prescient, by two weeks, than the U.S. Centers for Disease Control's surveys of 1,500 hospitals. (Google explains its methodology here, with a link to an article in Nature.)
You can do a Google Trends search on anything. Blogging pioneer Dave Winer ran a series recently comparing "Twitter," "Web 2.0" and "RSS." Twitter won that clap-o-meter competition hands down. Twitter's micro-blogging tool been a hot media topic for more than a year, but Winer's Google Trend search shows that it's been on fire since January.
Let's take a closer look at the iPhone chart, below the fold.
You can see right away why it's so hard for Apple's competitors to be heard above the din. Those spikes (A, B, C, etc.) marked by randomly chosen news articles are triumphs of event marketing orchestrated by Steve Jobs and amplified by the writers — including this one — who follow his every move.
The timing of most of those spikes are self-explanatory. June 29, 2007 was the day the first-generation iPhone launched. Sept. 6 marked the day Apple lowered the price. The iPhone 3G went on sale on July 11, 2008.
But even adversity plays into Apple's hand. The iPhone was first unveiled on Jan. 9, 2007, but interest in the device spiked two days later, when Cisco (CSCO) sued Apple for over the iPhone trademark (the two companies eventually settled out of court).
How can RIM, Palm and the rest compete? The launches of the BlackBerry Storm and the Palm Pre barely register on the chart. In fact, the Palm trend line is almost certainly inflated by searches related to "palm trees," especially in cities with a lot of them, like Miami, Los Angeles and Irvine (see red "Palm" bar in the chart detail inset).
It remains to be seen whether Apple can continue to dominate the buzz with Steve Jobs out of the picture, at least temporarily. In the Google Trends chart comparing "Steve Jobs" and "Bill Gates," the two computer celebrities switch places several times over the years. Steve Jobs searches shot up when his health problems were in the news, but since he took his medical leave, the two lines have crossed and now Gates is back on top. See here.
Apple has done a good job recently in identifying the areas of the market where style is more important than substance. PCs are becoming appliances, but mobile phones are still "jewlery" to some.
Apple just can't compete on "value for money", so they aim at the in-crowd. It's worked well.
At the end of the day they are merely telephones – all of them. A major waste of money in my opinion based on the consersations I´ve over heard…ie…what are you doing? And the always popular…where are you?
Fools parting with their money.
I really like my original iPhone, but I HATE that ATT's network doesn't reach through walls too well where I work, and play.
My mother said it perfectly when she stated, "He's got that expensive phone, and can't use it inside?"
On the plus side, I love my apps I can use on it as they are great!
HUGE LOLs to jim in toronto…
"the iphone is a greater invention than the airplane."
can someone really be so stupid???
are there really such pee brained iTards out there that think, yet another cell phone, is a great achievement for humanity??!??
what in the world happened to the types of people that think GREATER of themselves and their capabilities?
most of you are slowly being reduced to the same mentality as those in the movie 'idiocracy'.
i absolutely do not want to know what this guy thinks is the greatest invention tomorrow….
(he'll probably think a new toaster with a tv and radio/mp3 player in it is the greatest thing….HOW PATHETIC!)
as for the iphone replacing the PC, well sorry to inform you technologically challenged, but it WILL NOT HAPPEN!
(lets get real you iTarded idiots….if the mac hasn't done it in over 20+ years of trying, how is a cell phone going to do it?? IT CAN'T!)
and the iphone as a server?!?!?! well now i've heard everything…
do any of you people actually know what your saying or has the shiney packaging on your apple product gotten you so enamored, so 'deer in the headlights', that you can't see anything but pretty rainbows, unicorns and shiney iphones??
DANG this society is getting dumber every day!!!
I am a business user, and just switched to an iPhone after years of using a BlackBerry. The Berry was dying, and the fact that I have recently come off of the road more than I am on it means I had a choice. As a full-time road warrior, I was unwilling to make the switch because of what I perceived would be reduced productivity. I was wrong and should have made the switch a long time ago.
If you are a BlackBerry user, you should consider the following:
1. The keyboard is not that much of an adjustment.
2. The interface is second to none.
3. It eliminates the need for carrying a phone, an iPod, navigation device, etc.
4. There are some great productivity apps.
I know that the BlackBerries have caught up to some of this, and there are some that are never going to buy an Apple product or use AT&T. That is okay. Just don't say it is a toy, because it is far from it. I just wish they would improve the battery life, as it is horrible (don't get caught in an airport without a full charge or an adaptor).
The people that should be worried are PC makers. This device alone has me thinking very hard about ditching the Windows platform in favor of Mac when it is time to buy a new personal notebook.
I agree, my iphone original is a great tool for my job.
The only problem that I have with it is the phone part.
AT&T really dose suck as a provider.
I get voice mail 3 days later sometimes, sms's come through hours late. let me choose my own provider, because AT&T Customer service sucks!
For those griping about AT&T service, I've had the service since 1998. First AT&T, then BellSouth, then Cingular and now back to AT&T. I purchased an iPhone when the price dropped to $199. I've never had a serious problem with AT&T service and find that I often have service when others don't. It's like any other phone service, you will have dead zones. Even Verizon with it's ad campaign can't hide the fact that they have dead zones around U.S.
Even though iPhones are amazing devices, I refuse to buy one while they are still crippled by AT&T contracts; I simply cannot justify spending that much per month for what is essentially an iPod Touch with a built-in telephone.
All smartphones have about the same range of capabilities and liabilities. Not one single carrier or phone maker has convinced me that their price gouging on prices, contracts, and data rates are at all worthwhile.
While the iPhone is a neat gadget, the Samsung Instinct is way superior. Considering the poor choice of AT&T Sprint is really the way to go.
First of all, the Instinct can download up to 3.1 Mbps. The iPhone is restricted to 1.4 Mbps. Second, DRM Free tracks from iTunes can be synced to the Instinct with the Sprint Media Manager. Third, you can sync email and calender information free on the Instinct. For the iPhone, you'll have to pay 99 bucks for Mobile Me. Fourth, the latest updates to the browser give Java and Flash support to the Instinct, while the iPhone supports neither format. Fifth, the Instinct supports any class 6 microSD card. Users have successfully tested a 16 GB microSD card. I'm pretty sure a 32 GB microSD card works just as well. That would equal if not double the current iPhone's storage capacity.
Sprint's simply everything plan is 99.99 a month. The similar AT&T plan will cost you an additional $600 a month or $1200 for 2 years. That is purely a ripoff for a mediocre service. Plus you can get the Instinct at Best Buy for $99.99, saving you a hundred bucks in phone cost.
Apple is great at hyping a product that doesn't deliver all the bang for the buck. If you really want to be critical of Apple, check out the latest in vulnerabilities in OS-X. The threats are evolving on the iPhone and OS-X. Do your research before you blind just to have.
hype? hardly! Apple has always been an App company since its inception. The iPhone is the epitome of what the PC wants to be, a computer in your hand! People will eventually realize and embrace the iPhone as a computer in the palm (and in the ear) instead of anything else but. My vision is the iPhone becoming a server as well as a device that's application / service versatile capable of enabling human dreams that have yet come out of the gates. The iPhone is a greater invention than the airplane. The iPhone is much more than RIM, NOKIA, SonyEricsson, Palm, etc… can ever be.
For those of you griping about AT&T, remember, Apple went to Verizon, and they turned Apple down…bet they wished they hadn't…
Marketing is great and I love to read about a user experience. Steve Jobs has done a great job and has an eye for great shiny things. He has brought back Apple to be a powerful force in computing and shiny gaggets.
I have no reason to buy or want to own an "I" anything. I enjoy the freedom of working with devices with ease of use. I can copy songs, videos or text to and from my Curve in seconds. I rip movies to watch while on the move.
I have one rule, no application from iTunes on my computer. The only Application is Quick time. Great to know the products are loved by so many but there are a few of use that will not jump unto the shiny nor want an ATT account; at least not that carrier. I remember their lousy customer service and my bad experience.
If the iphone wants to see a major spike it will make itself available to other phone services beyoned AT&T.
When that happens, I am all about getting one. For now, I will hold out til there is not a monopoly to hook the phone up.
I LOVE MY iPHONE! All of these apps, my pictures and music and everything I have is on this beauty! I leave nowhere without it. it has become my best friend, I'm so addicted to this phone, I would marry it if it were human! Sometimes, I sleep with it and dream about Steve Jobs hand building my best friend, myyyy iphone, awwww. People, get a frikin life and stop being so materialistic! PATHETIC!
Apple iPhone is as revolutionary as a product as the Apple Brand. but there do continue to exist better and safer alternatives.
Thanks
Atef
My iPhone is better than any phone I have ever had. I was a hold-out for a long time, but when my old phone bit it I took the plunge. Sure it could use a few more bells and whistles, but it's multi-functionality has one me over. Like others, my only big gripe IS WITH ATT. They suck. I had more dropped calls in the first week I had ATT than in five years with Verizon. My opinion is Apple's decision to go with ATT as their preferred carrier is one of the biggest mistakes the company has even made. But with movies, video, iPod, e-mail, and all the apps at my fingertips, the iPhone has made me a convert.
HEY STEVE, GIVE US AN OPTION FOR A MOBILE CARRIER! ATT SUCKS!
I was a T-Mobile user for ages, had a nice generic phone that served me well – but was excited to switch providers so I could get the new Blackberry Storm (the supposed 'iPhone killer'). It was AWEFUL – I switched it within two weeks (read cnet if you want the list of complaints).
After doing my best to avoid the iPhone (because of AT&T's service monopoly) I finally switched to try it out. It truly is amazing. I now have a full map of the Paris Metro system, Guitar Chords, Cookbooks, great games and loads of other random applications on it. The reception is great (for my area at least) and works great as an iPod (battery issue is not bad really).
Anyone who says the iPhone is just hype – hasn't used it for over ten minutes. I'll admit – I argued the 'hype' argument too at one point – boy was I wrong! 
Guys,
Don't take me wrong here I love my iPhone 3G but come on enough is enough. Isn't it time for Apple to finally add "Copy and Paste", MMS and the ability to forward a text message to the iPhone? Any other $50 phone can do this basic tasks.Why can't the iPhone do them too?
Well, I'm just waiting to see what is Apple up to this June/July. If they don't fix these issues, I might go and get me a Fuse and start using that nice "Video Streaming" this phone offers.
Take that Apple.
Hey Jill,
Even if you added up the Google Trends output for every Windows Mobile phone over the last 2 years, you'd still not come anywhere close to iPhone. Try it.
Dems da breaks.
I don't care what you say. Love my iPhone! It's very easy to use and offers enough entertainment to keep me busy during boring meetings or downtime. My biggest beef is with the ATT network… yuck. If you are hooked into wi-fi though, the iPhone is simply awesome.
"So the only reason people are buying the iPhone is because of 'media hype,' not because it is vastly better than the majority of competing products?
That sounds like the John McCain crowd complaining that the 'liberal media' is why Obama got elected, not voters."
Obama's device of choice is, quite famously, the BlackBerry. I just love unintentional irony.
"Hey, Bill, can you help me program my Zune? Oh, wait, I got an iPod like the rest of the world!" – Carter Pewterschmidt
No mention of the Nokia E71? Oh well… mine arrives today or tomorrow, and I can't wait to see how it stacks up against the iPhone in person.
This is a cool article, the value of which is diminished by a misleading headline. The lesson here is that Apple, by introducing a disruptive technology that is easy to use swamps products that require explaining or long argument of benefits to justify in the public conversation. Serious film critics can argue that Dame Judy Dench is the more accomplished actress, but Angelina Jolie is hot and more present in discourse. Add to this the reality that most other phones are just technological bait used by phone companies to hook consumers on their business model and Apple's success becomes more clear.
Prior to widespread awareness of Hawaii as a US travel destination about 1916, as I have tracked in pop songs, the most yearned for destination was "de old plantation" and a sentimental, non-existent South. By the twenties Hawaii, a real place, had displaced the old South fantasy in pop songs. In turn, the telephone, the automobile and Florida each dominated titles and lyrics. This is just what happens–people talk about what interests them. Hype is what tricksters do to subvert the media, but if the message isn't really interesting to the public, it dissolves.
Author fails to state, that while Google has filtered out some 'popularity' falsely generated by SEO search bots it has done a rather poor job of it.
What's imporatant to Google is to give the appearance of propriety. Truth in Advertising remains an oxymoron.
As someone who worked the iPhone launch for both the original and 3G, a lot of people are most definitely drawn in because of the "it" factor. Quite a few people I helped had no idea what the iPhone can do, or they didn't even really need an iPhone, they just wanted it to be cool. No wonder our economy is in the crapper.
Apple Iphones are selling for over $600 on Craiglist. Many of these are 'used' or as the ads says "Lightly Used in Mint Condition" with 'no box' for $600 and they sell out within hours if not minutes of listing them.
No, I don't think its hype just that no other phone can come close to it. I want an Iphone if I can find someone who is selling it for $500 for an unlocked 3G.
Of course most people have not only an Iphone but usually a Blackberry and another windows 6.1 phone as well
"?…..Ironically It is known that Windows applications run fastest with Parallels on a Macintosh."
That is a totally false statement. It depends what computer you use but there are plenty of computers that have a much higher spec than an Apple based one. Don't just invent things to get your point across. It makes you look like a fool!
iPhone is a device. Windows Mobile is not. If you want to see trends of Windows Mobile phones, how about searching for every Windows Mobile Phone and then consolidating the results? That will be called real reporting.
And
To the user (Roger, Irvine, Ca) who uses Yahoo to search news, try Google News or Live News search. They are better for searching news!
So the only reason people are buying the iPhone is because of "media hype," not because it is vastly better than the majority of competing products?
That sounds like the John McCain crowd complaining that the "liberal media" is why Obama got elected, not voters.
Never mind that despite Apple's expertise in generating media buzz, the company faced high barriers to entry in terms of needing to develop the technology, needing to find a way into the mobile provider-dominated market, and needing to outshine the existing, entrenched smartphone makers, who have all been offering us crap for years.
No, just say its all hype and hot air that's keeping Apple afloat, and denigrate the hard work that went into delivering a product strong enough to overturn loafers like Palm, Microsoft, etc ad nauseam.
"G1" does do better than Android, but still way down there in the weeds. If you look up iPod, you'll find that the iPhone 3G peak just barely tops the annual iPod Christmas peaks. So what this does show is how important it is to have a brand name like iPod, iPhone or even Blackberry.
To test the power of just "Apple", I tried AppleTV and it barely registers. "iPod touch", though, equals or surpasses Palm around Christmas, and is more than G1 just about all the time (and more than iPod nano these days).
Altho the media hype played a role, I think this does show that the consumer recognized there was something unique about iPhone.
Writing 'The iPhone 3G went on sale on June 11, 2008.' is wrong.
The iPhone 3G went on sale onJuly 11, 2008.
ex ped: Right you are. Fixed now.
I wonder how representative Google Trends is of all searches. For example, when I perform a news search, I search Yahoo News (a search engine for News) or another news website. I use Google search all the time, but not for recent news. I use Google search for information that is Not "new"s. So, does Google Trends take into account the millions of news website searches performed every day, or only those that are through just Google?
I find it interesting that the author doesn't disclose his long and short positions (in fairness, it could be his company policy not to disclose same, but it is nonetheless, unusual). Furthermore, the most recent negative news that he quotes is from mid-2008.
If you really want to see how "poorly" the iPhone is doing come to the UK, where 10+% of the convergence devices are iPhones or iPod touches; for less than 18 months of marketing and sales, that is nothing less than astounding
TV manufacturers will tremble in fear when Apple enters their market
ex ped: I have no position — long or short — in any of these companies. Do I have to add that to every post I write?
I love it .. google searches are now the key to determining what is the leader in wireless!
Apple fanboys are really getting desperate. If you look at your own chart you will notice the iPhone drop like a brick after launch while Blackberry continues its upward trend. Apple's sales revolve around each launch and are selling to the same group that bought it to begin with.
Anyone who wanted an iPhone as already bought one and anyone coming off a contract now realizes there are other as capable devices on the market now.
Better hope iPhone Multi gets to the market quick. (The iPhone that can actually run more then one program at once).
ex ped: Not sure I qualify as desperate or a fanboy, but if you are referring to the steep decline after A, that represents the fall-off in Web searches after the announcement of the iPhone, not its launch.
Sorry, but the evaluation doesn't seem very scientific to me. Everyone searches for "iPhone", but someone looking for a Google Android phone may just search for "Google G1". And someone looking for a Blackberry may just search for "RIM Storm" or "RIM Curve". Apple has just a single product, so "iPhone" as word will get the most hits.
ex ped: True. But if you add BlackBerry hits to RIM hits they don't do much better against the iPhone. Try it. You'll see.
Mr. Softy" is opening up Retail Stores!…. Now there's Another Original Idea! ..They have a better chance competing against Carvel than Apple with this one!….The only person to make any real money OFF Microsoft lately , is Jerry Seinfeld. Now that was truly A Microsoft Original Idea! 10 Million$$$$$$ worth of Originality. …. Next thing you Know that other PC "Dead Company Walking" DELL , Will be coming out with The "Me Phone"! Why Not?……Microsoft in another "Brilliant Burst" of "Originality" will be introducing the "MYPhone"!…. Will Microsoft choose Dell or HP to run their software in the stores?…..Ironically It is known that Windows applications run fastest with Parallels on a Macintosh. You would think a software company would want to showcase their applications on the fastest platform available….The Mac………Microsoft finds itself "Between a Rock and a Hard Place" on this one!
Add Nokia to the mix and you get quite a different picture…
http://trends.google.com/trends?q=iphone%2C+Palm%2C+BlackBerry%2C+Windows+Mobile%2C+nokia&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
ex ped: Interesting. Thanks. But when you add Nokia you've left the realm of smartphones only.