Macworld: Hoping for a Steve Jobs surprise
One of Steve Jobs' strengths as a public speaker is his showman's sense of timing.
Like a magician who knows he has one last rabbit up his sleeve, he delivers his famous keynotes with a twinkle in his eye. Even if you are pretty sure what his "one more thing" is going to be — and you are never 100% certain — he makes you wait for it.
Which is why the suspense surrounding Macworld Expo 2009 — the last in which the company will participate — is so palpable.
When Apple PR announced on Dec. 16 that senior vice president Phil Schiller — not Jobs — would be delivering the keynote next Tuesday, the news set off an orgy of speculative thumb-sucking.
Hundreds of TV spots, newspaper articles, wire stories and blog posts chewed over the possibilities. Was Apple feuding with IDG World Expo — the company that has been putting on the exposition since 1985? Was it simply pulling the plug on a show whose time had passed? Were there no new showcase Apple products worthy of a Steve Jobs keynote? Was there a last-minute glitch in a new piece of hardware? Could it be that Jobs had lost more weight or was too sick to appear? Had his pancreatic cancer returned? Was his health "declining rapidly" — as one thinly sourced rumor had it? Was he, as others insist on not much more evidence, just fine? Or is it all, as still another faction firmly believes, nobody's business but Steve's?
Apple's December surprise may have lowered expectations for Macworld 2009 in terms of product introductions, but it only raised expectations in terms of Apple's CEO — because it didn't rule out the possibility that the rabbit in Schiller's sleeve next week is …
… wait for it …
… Steve Jobs himself, making a cameo appearance just before the curtain falls.
The beauty of this scenario is its simplicity. There are only two possibilities: either Jobs shows up or he doesn't.
If he does, and looks no worse than he did at the Spotlight on Notebooks special event in October, the audience will erupt with applause, investors will be reassured, and Apple's (AAPL) share price will soar. When Jobs made a surprise telephone appearance at Apple's fourth quarter earnings call three months ago, the stock jumped more than 12% in after-hours trading.
If he doesn't show, things get a bit more complicated.
Few CEO are more closely associated with the health of a major company than Steve Jobs, who not only co-founded Apple in 1976, but brought it back from near bankruptcy when he returned from exile 20 years later.
Today Apple is both a worldwide leader in high-tech innovation and a financial powerhouse with a market cap of $75 billion, annual sales of $32 billion, and $24.5 billion in cash.
Two years ago, when the company was caught up in an options backdating scandal, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster estimated that if Jobs were forced out, Apple's shares might drop 20% overnight. How big a hit it will take when Jobs leaves — as he eventually must do — remains to be seen.
Some argue that Jobs' departure has already been priced into the stock; after all, it's fallen nearly 60% since its Dec. 2007 high of just under $200 a share. (It closed on New Year's eve at $85.35.) One theory has it that Jobs is skipping Macworld now, while the stock is low and cash reserves are high, because he has already decided to step down.
One thing is certain: If he doesn't show up next week, or at the World Wide Developer's Conference in June, or at whatever special events Apple schedules in 2009, then it will be clear that the transition to the new management team is already underway, and the era of Apple's Steve Jobs is nearly over.
UPDATE: For a perspective on Macworld keynotes as they appear to insiders at One Infinite Loop, see Chuq von Rospach's piece in Friday's Guardian.
[Photo courtesy of Matthew Yohe.]
It isn't true that "There are only two possibilities: either Jobs shows up or he doesn’t." A third likely one is that he links in from somewhere else like China or Disney to announce some new great collaboration. Gets to honor his promise of not showing up yet blows people away.
My bet is he just doesn't show. To show in any capacity undermines their efforts to show that Apple is more than Steve. An appearance would undermine Schiller.
BUT, if their aim is to bolster other managers in the eyes of the public and shareholders, this argues for a big new product: you can't make Schiller shine on minor announcements. Wouldn't be fair to him or apple.
I suspect a big announcement, but whatever it is may not be available for a while.
Greg Bates
The only reason Jobs won't be there personally is so he can deliver the keynote address via Apple's revolutionary new telepresence technology: iWhere.
"One thing is certain: If he doesn't show up next week, or…the era of Apple's Steve Jobs is nearly over."
Even given all your caveats, it is FAR from certain that the Steve Jobs era is over!
Look, it's well within the realm of possibility that Steve Jobs is just flat sick and tired of the three-ring circus the media has built around his appearance of late, and that he's simply decided he's not going to play this particular game any more.
And in that case, he might never show his face again, but would still operate as CEO for years to come. Personally, if it were I, that's EXACTLY what I'd do!
And it's worth mentioning tat this is another instance of the media taking news down to the tabloid level. What's next from you guys? Rumors that he's actually dead, and the Board of Directors doesn't want its stockholders to know?
Or how about that he's actually a space alien, secretly planning to conquer the earth?
Steve Jobs has built Apple into a successful company by hiring great people – not just because of him alone. You can't equate the company with him so much. Apple is more than Steve Jobs. also Apple was not near bankruptcy when he returned, it was in a product slump, a big difference.
It'll for sure be a surprise if he does show up. I think I'll buy some Apple shares in my investment game right away. 
I love this…Steve must have his cronies really trained for bad publicity. I just got censored for my opinion! You guys are really high class!
ex ped: Nobody censored you, Joe. Or is Matt?
Who honestly cares… I am so tired of this Jesus figure! Give credit to the people in the background that make Steve look good!
Steve will do what Steve wants to do and if it were not okay with the Board at Apple, someone would speak up. If Apple has not made an announcement then everything is fine and everyone should quit worrying and give Steve some time off. He deserves a break and a chance to spend time with his family.
If you don't like the company you've invested in, go invest in another one.
Apple will do fine without you.
Mike
Well, we can all find out once and for all where Steve is at by calling the Yogurt place he frequents. Apparently he's been around. Yogurt place info below:
One, Apple has NEVER said Steve won't be there. They've only said that Phil will give the opening keynote. Steve could be sitting in the front row, he could be invited onstage just as Steve used to invite Phil onstage. Why is everyone assuming Steve will be a no-show? Is it because Steve didn't go to the first MWSF, but stayed in a hotel nearby with a new friend?
As for jabber's comment, he ought to read the link Elmer-Dewitt put to Chuq von Rospach's piece in the Guardian. It explains why Apple is moving away from MWSF. As to his comment about Steve's health, until Steve says otherwise, one can only assume he's fine. Steve is on the record with Jim Goldman of CNBC stating that he will inform the press, if he were not. The point is, I'm not going to assume you are a moron based upon what your friends say, I'll know you are a moron based upon what YOU say.
Christ can there be any more suck-up comments to Apple on this page?!
"I don't care what you say" or "best wishes to Steven and his healthy"
1- If there are facts and statistics, your opinion doesnt matter. Mac losing sales to cheaper PC side, and MAC showing nothing new.
2- Macworld excuses – Apple lives, if not thrives, off of free publicity by creating a cult like status. This is exacerbated by Macword and leaving it, shows no purpose other than Apple has nothing left to feed the cult.
3- Steve is human, gets sick like one, and will die like one. He does not code, he is a drop out of literature and poetry. He is only a manager, and does not collaborate well. If he dies, it might be better beginning for apple.
I'm not wishing death on anyone but I'm not going to say that "he is healthy no matter what anyone says" like some drugged out cult-fanatic!
Here's why Mac World must die: Trade shows are contra to Apple's image and take the wind out extreme product secrecy which augments the element of surprise no longer possible at Mac World. Apple wants to control the whole show, including how much time in advance articles like this can be written and when to short the stock. . If we had no idea of a product launch until a week or two in advance, there wouldnt be so many articles like this one. Also, shareholders know that it's imperative that Apple move the focus away from the CEO and back onto its EXISTING products. Its all very good strategy regardless of who the CEO is.
(please excuse my spelling)
i hope steve jobs's health is good.
and, hopefully, when/if he steps down, the company will have competent & adept predecesors in his place; i think if that is secured, shareholders and investors will rest easy.
afterall, all things come to an end; no one should be suprised that jobs would eventually leave.
This sounds strangely like the hide-and-seek seen in North Korea and Cuba. Maybe everyone will get a surprise and Kim Jeong Il will make an appearance with Fidel. 
AAPL is the finest company in this world and investors will be rewarded by remaining loyal to the company. The discussion about Steve Jobs health/continuity as CEO is meaningless as APPLE INC. is an institution much above individuals running it. It is the innovative, quality management which makes a company successful leader, and APPLE eminently meets this criteria. Long live Steve Jobs, Long live Apple. Go Apple all the way.
Hi PED: Correct share price on New Year's Eve close was $85.35.
I think that they are playing this strategy brilliantly. They announced something that created the worst case perception and did nothing to counteract. In doing so they took a share price hit but nothing like 20%. They also made investors comfortable with succession.
I suspect that Jobs is healthy and salivating at the range of competitive options that are available to him now with the cash Apple has (soon to be $28+ billion)m the state of their technology, their lagging competition, and the marketplace. I simply think that they are playing this little waiting game out beautifully.
I hope that I'm right, not the least for Steve's health.
ex ped: Thanks. Fixed.
While this particular move felt like a jolt, a slow move away from Steve is probably best. He's not going to be there forever. Jobs might want to start something new, like Gates. Preceding the departure with months of reduced exposure makes sense and will soften the inevitable blow.
This will never happen!