Apple 2.0

Mac news from outside the reality distortion field

Picturing a 9-inch iPod tablet


cro-magnon-ipod-touchPerhaps it's because expectations are so low. Or maybe it's because nobody really knows what's going on with Steve Jobs' health. But less than a week before the start of Macworld 2009, the lead story on Techmeme's news aggregator Wednesday morning was about a device that Apple (AAPL) is reportedly readying for release next September, at its annual iPod event.

The mystery device is the long-rumored iPod tablet — an oversized iPod touch with a 7- or 9-inch screen. Three independent sources close to Apple — one of whom has seen and handled a prototype — tell Techcrunch's Michael Arrington that Apple is talking to Asian suppliers about mass producing it for Fall '09.

According to Arrington:

"Apple has been experimenting internally with large form tablet devices for years, one source says, but there was concern that users wouldn’t like the device. The difference now is the iTunes app store, which has thousands of games and other applications that are perfect for a touch screen device with an accelerometer." (link)

So what would the thing look like? If the image above represents a 3.5-inch iPod touch, an iPod tablet with a 9-inch screen might look something like this:

cro-magnon-ipod-tablet-2

As several readers have divined, this was a rush job patched together by a writer with minimal Photoshop skills. If you have a better idea of what form such a device might take, send it to me and I'll post it below the fold.

No one has used the "Newton" word here. Newton was a fabulous machine, but its timing was wrong. It came out more than a decade too soon. It was expensive and big compared to a Palm Pilot. Palm was far less functional, but easy to carry and cheap. And back then, that's what the market wanted. Apple took a big hit with the loss of Newton.

No one has used the "Kindle" word here. Amazon is quickly cornering the eBook market. They are the iTunes of eBooks. What they have, that Apple or any other competition does not, is 230,000 books (at the time of this writing) in Kindle format. And that number grows every day. With its super clear electronic ink screen, it is superior to color for reading black and white print, which covers 99.9% of all novels and literature.

But not magazines. Magazines are in color.

What if Amazon did a deal with Apple, allowing the more expensive multipurpose Apple tablet to purchase and read eBooks in Kindle format via Amazon?

Amazon would sell more books (which is where the money is) and grow a user base, cinching book format war in their favor. Apple would get the market for people who wanted more than a book reader. A higher market strata where Amazon doesn't have experience. They'd get a piece of the pie.

Pilot has lost to smart phones. Smart phones are today's PDA's. This tablet can't go head on with a PDA. It would have to do well what the iPhone can't. It could be used to download and read books, and employ handwriting recognition (Newton was great at this) to write. To fully write, not henpeck short texts. And of course, it would have WiFi widgets.

Yes, this tablet would have to have a pen.

I don't think it will be a game pad, because bubble gum chewing gamers want something easy to carry that they can put in their pocket and listen to iTunes with. iPod Touch already does that.

While Kindle sales are promising, and any reasonable person has to believe ultimately a book reader like Kindle is the way we will carry and read most of our books, it doesn't have nearly the appeal of an iPod.

The iPod game crowd, the young techno geeks, don't read a lot of books.

Music was a low hanging fruit.

This is going to be a different user base. A more conservative and slower moving user base, with different wants and needs.

So our market expectations have to be realistic. eBook readers have been around for a decade. This is a surprisingly slow growing market. Surprising, because eBooks are inevitable.

This a strategic move in a war the general public does not yet know about. Its about cornering future formats and O/S for tablets. Amazon has already won the war on book format. Apple missed that, and they know it.

The time for Apple to move back to a tablet has probably come. It will be more expensive than a Kindle, and will compete for a different market strata. The two technologies will complement each other.

This time Apple will not put all their eggs in one basket. They've learned a painful lesson from the Newton. But because of the Newton, they will hit the ground miles ahead of anyone else.

Posted By Tyge, San Diego, CA: February 13, 2009 1:01 AM

I would instantly buy a 9-inch Ipod. I use my current Ipod touch mostly for reading and web browsing while laying on the sofa.

Posted By Patrick, Helsinki: February 5, 2009 5:29 AM

I have 3 Macs and 2 iPhones at home, and an Apple Fan since the Mac 128K.

However, I am a regular user of a Windows Tablet PC at work, and it is an innovative and exceptional form factor for a Windows PC! There is, at present, no Apple substitute.

With a Tablet PC, I can walk into a meeting, take notes unobtrusively that are instantly searchable, and have a full XP laptop at my command without "raising the shields" by opening a laptop and putting a barrier between me and everyone else at the meeting. I cannot understand why Microsoft has not exploited this asset.

When I need to revert to paper (and my *fountain pen*), I do use a 9 x 5 paper tablet. If, instead, I had an iPod or Mac of similar size that took stylus handwriting input, I'd use a Mac at my desk and carry the bigger iPod. Here's hoping for a tablet Mac, or a stylus-supporting larger iPod…

Posted By Sam G., Cleveland, OH: January 6, 2009 3:44 PM

Nonsense. It has to be size of current Airbook and have full tablet PC functionality.

Needs all iPhone technology + Airbook FLASH & formfactor (minus keepboard) + OLED display + Windows Tablet PC inputs (drawing, writing, handwriting OCR)

Posted By Dreamdeceiver, Silicone Valley: January 2, 2009 5:06 PM

This is an interesting evolution of the tablet. The idea of the tablet has been out there for years – but it was always thought that consumers would not be interested as the screen would be too small – there was always the push for even larger screens on both desktops and laptops.

Then came real small devices – personal data assistants (pda's) and cell phones where features such as texting, email, mobile web browsing, and now even regular web browsing (iPhone & iTouch) have been added and accepted by consumers as desirable – despite the small screen size. I think the convenience of accessing these services on a device that can be carried on-the-go in your pocket has outweighed the inconvenience of the small screen and user input. And the newer devices are maximizing the screen size by using either touch screens or pull-out keyboards. Granted you still would want a laptop for applications needing more screen real estate and lots of user input.

Case-in-point, my wife desired a laptop and I ended up getting her an iTouch for xmas — and now she says she doesn't need a laptop as the iTouch does most of the things she desired in the laptop (checking email, weather, and such anywhere in the house or on the go) without the less convenient, bigger laptop.

So the question now has changed to, is the tablet too big? Well, I certainly know people who carry around their laptop at home from room to room (for just low user-input web-based tasks) and there certainly has been lots of talk of netbooks selling well, so maybe the time for the tablet is here – consumers now see the usefulness of this sized & ability of device – more real estate than a pocket sized device, less powerful than a laptop, but still does the most desirable tasks, can't quite fit in your pocket, but still easier than carrying around than a laptop.

My only question is the application of the touchscreen for user input on a larger screen — henpecking would still be required on a larger keyboard since you can't rest your fingers on the virtual keyboard (screen). Though, henpecking on the touch keyboard on the iTouch I found was quite easy & fast to use in the 3 minutes I was able to pry it away from my wife!

Posted By Brent A, Lilburn, GA: January 2, 2009 8:20 AM

Makes sense that iWork will be placed on the cloud then! With a 7"-9" screen… Posted info at http://www.thesoablog.com/2009/01/apple-iwork-going-to-cloud.html

Posted By John, Boston MA: January 1, 2009 12:50 PM

The screenshots for the iPhone Pro look awesome.

http://tinycomb.com/2008/12/29/iphone-pro-photos/

Posted By Jared, Los Angeles, CA: December 31, 2008 4:40 PM

I could see a slightly larger version of the iPod Touch or iPhone as long as it is still pocketable. If it exceeds pocket size then it would have to become Apple's response to the netbook – a portable, inexpensive, low power Mac (that also functions as an iPod Touch).

Posted By David Robarts, San Luis Obsipo, CA: December 31, 2008 1:23 PM

I think that this will be a great form factor!!

But PLEASE give us a real OSX and not the lame iPhone OS.

Also give us PEN INPUT and a BLUETOOTH KEYBOARD.

Do that and I will buy a couple of them!!

Posted By Fred, Santa Monica, CA: December 31, 2008 12:54 PM

If they truly want to corner the gaming market, that would be a brilliant decision, but they will need to add some physical buttons and make the device as powerful as their competition. Apple would win due to the low cost of iTunes games. Something 9" is not going to have a phone in it. Apple has said in the past that the iPhone, in it's current form is their main desire.

Posted By Roger B., Irvine, CA: December 31, 2008 12:16 PM

I agree with pk de cville about the size. If you're going to use the multitouch interface you need to be able to hold it with one hand. 7" or 9" would be awkward to use this way.

Posted By Steve, Rochester, NY: December 31, 2008 12:06 PM

The iPhone is a huge hit. The iPod Touch is a huge hit.

This would be a better platform for certain applications including many games, book reading, word processing, etc. A touch keyboard would be considerably more user friendling in the larger form factor. The App store would drive demand. It's a 'can't miss' product for Apple.

Don't you think the iPod Touch was an afterthought for Apple? They already had the iPhone and it was so easy to reconfigure and make another product using most of the same parts and the same production facility. They hit a home run with the Touch too. The engineering investment in the iPhone paid off with two home run products.

I believe they would be likely to do the same thing with this tablet. That is: 1/ A low end product that's sort of like a giant iPod Touch to compete with net books and game consoles; and 2/ A higher priced G3 enabled device with a pull-out Bluetooth cell phone headset.

The G3 device might have some capabilities that the iPhone doesn't have. For example, the ability to run any and all OS-X software. Perhaps an optional bluetooth keyboard. Perhaps a user replaceable battery and longer battery life. Perhaps external monitor support. Perhaps an airplane power connector. Perhaps some sort of additional gadget that would allow you to stream video to it from your cable box via WiFi.

Such a product might not be limited to just AT&T. Perhaps they could include GMS, CDMA, WiMax, and WiFi all in the same unit.

I think both products could be a success. And, if they don't do it, Sony or someone else will. They need to do it sooner rather than later while they still have such a hugs App Store advantage.

Posted By Dave Small, Houston, TX: December 31, 2008 12:05 PM

The larger iPod Touch must still be pocketable. The "concept" is a Mac that we have with us all the time, everywhere we go. I simply won't buy another mobile Mac that I have to lug in a case. And imagine what an anywhere, anytime Mac can feature as services!

Nor should anyone have to buy more than one Mac. So the "MacTROU" (for The Rest of Us) must be untethered, like the Kindle, using EVDO. And better than the Kindle, this gizmo connects to all your files on MobileMe.

Apple can charge whatever it needs to for the mobile Mac, for the connectivity, and for a subscription to MobileMe.

Posted By Steve Nagel, Winona, MN: December 31, 2008 12:04 PM

I'll buy. At 6 x 9, the size of a traditional book page, they will become the iPod of e-book readers. This device has all of the necessary elements to make it as an Apple product: build on extension of Apple technology and consumer appeal: it's a iPod, a game machine, the Internet in your pocket, and an email device. Plus it adds comfortable reading of e-books, the new killer app via the iPhone multi-touch interface; and online delivery via the iTunes Bookstore. Sorry Amazon. By delivering 90% of what people buy "netbooks" to do, it can redefine and capture the netbook category in less than a year. (Maybe a wireless keyboard option would help.)

As Borders begins to close (get your 30+ plus discount ASAP) it is clear that an iTunes iPod strategy is the only thing that can save publishing. In case no one is aware, between 90-94% of the price paid by consumers for printed books goes to truckers, printers, book retailers, banks, and publishers. Authors get very little of the purchase price and they only get paid 12 to 18 months after the consumer buys the book. These groups, who do not read the books or in many cases even touch them have driven the cost of new books (in hardcover) to over $25 per copy. There is no longer a reason why they should continue to drive up prices and keep 90% of the money when better solutions are possible. Expensive books means fewer book sales, but the physical nature of a book requires costs. E-books have no physical costs. They are smaller than MP3 files. Prices can and should become less, as long as the Authors can participate in a share of the price.

Posted By Ashley Grayson, Los Angeles, CA: December 31, 2008 11:41 AM

Wow – what a great comment. Are you related to Zoolander?

Posted By Anonymous: December 31, 2008 11:09 AM

Such a thing would be a deathblow for the Kindle, Nintendo DS and Sony PSP.

Also if it had a reasonable camera (maybe even a videocamera), YouTube and Flickr would soon be overwhelmed by content from this device. And assuming the device had some rudimentary photo and video editing tools on board, that content would be of much better quality that what comes from other phones.

Posted By macFanDave, Houston, Texas: December 31, 2008 11:04 AM

They are going to go in my cars and replace the DVD players.

Posted By Jim, Stuttgart, Germany: December 31, 2008 11:02 AM

Hmm. Just a couple of nit-picks. On my computer screeen, the size of the iPod touch is not even close to the reality, and the iPod tablet appears to just be a scaled blowup of the touch. I.e., it's not really showing nine inches.

Maybe the picture is limited by the width of your column? How about rotating the tablet vertically?

Also, the radius at the corners would be a lot smaller which means the black bands on the sides would be a lot thinner, and the edging would be thinner as well. Finally, it would need a much larger battery, and so would be quite a bit heavier.

Posted By Sacto Joe, Sacramento, CA: December 31, 2008 11:00 AM

I don't see them going all the way to 9 inches.

The current iPods/iPhones the same mutlitouch screen: 3.5" w/ 320X480 160 dpi.

The new one will probably be 480×720 160 about 5".

Light, eye candy 'low cost' multi-touch screen, fits in a jacket pocket, can be managed mostly with one hand, with optional blue tooth phone/3G data capability.

Posted By pk de cville, va: December 31, 2008 10:28 AM
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Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Steve Jobs, goes the old joke at Apple, is surrounded by a reality distortion field; get too close and you believe what he's saying. Apple has made believers out of millions of customers — and made a lot of investors rich — but Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple – and watching Steve Jobs operate — since 1982.
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