Behind Steve Jobs' Macworld exit
Truth is, nobody outside Steve Jobs' inner circle knows why Apple's CEO won't be giving his annual Macworld keynote this year.
The news broke Tuesday afternoon, and by dawn Wednesday just about every reporter who follows the company had filed a story. Techmeme's news aggregator listed 104. Google News had 779.
I haven't read them all, but I've read enough to know that nobody has talked to Jobs or been given the inside dope.
On its face, Apple's press release makes a plausible case for why Macworld 2009 will be its last. Apple (AAPL) has cheaper and more effective venues for reaching its audience — on its own terms and its own schedule.
But to get a feel for how far Apple's four-paragraph release is from the real story, contrast it with John Gruber's 2002 Daring Fireball report the last time Apple called IDG World Expo's bluff. (Killer quote from IDG chief Charlie Greco, apparently thinking Jobs needed IDG's expo more than the expo needed Jobs: "You know how badly they want to do San Francisco," [Greco] said. "We don’t have to let them.")
But even if you accept Apple's reasoning for abandoning Macworld, that doesn't explain why Jobs isn't giving the valedictory keynote. Or why he waited until three weeks before the event to spring the news of his absence and his keynote stand-in Senior VP Phil Schiller — too late for the thousands of Apple enthusiasts making the pilgrimage to San Francisco to get their money back.
Apple must have known that the sudden switch would rekindle speculation about Jobs' health. (See here for background.)
Asked by Time Magazine's Josh Quittner if Jobs canceled because of illness, Apple PR chief Steve Dowling said, "Phil is giving the keynote because this is Apple's last year in the show, and it doesn't make sense for us to make a major investment in a trade show we will no longer be attending." (link)
What "major investment" is he talking about? Apple has already rented the space in Moscone West, and Jobs gets paid whether he speaks or not.
CNBC's Jim Goldman thinks he got the inside scoop. "I can tell you that sources inside the company tell me that Jobs' decision was more about politics than his pancreas," he wrote.
But Goldman's sources also told him that if Jobs was ever unable to perform any of his responsibilities as CEO because of health reasons, he should "rest assured that the board would let me know." (link)
Goldman is a good reporter, but he's not the first to make the mistake of believing that Jobs or Apple's board puts any journalist's interests ahead of its own.
Steve Jobs may someday tell us what's really going on. But he'll do it in on his own terms, and in a venue of his choosing.
One thing we know for sure: it won't be Macworld.
I just don't buy that he is under 100 pounds because that's the "desired result of a vegan diet" crap.
The big story here is why OUR PHIL is being totally sidelined by CNN. There are TWO other stories about this same story. OUR PHIL is hidden away in the background, even though he clearly had the scoop.
You'd have to say the writing is on the wall for this blog. *cough*
Regarding the fate of the divine being, my own view is that he is incredibly ashamed that the iPhone can't tether, and so he cannot bring himself to address the faithful. And he would be heckled by angry developers because of the farce over iPhone policy. That would look bad, like the Pope being called a dirty old man during Christmas mass.
But it could be his health. The lord works in mysterious ways, and HE may have decided that Jobs breached the terms of his probation by engaging in tax farming with AT&T.
I will pray for his soul, and for Apple products generally.
Instead Steve will be in Atlanta attending the Chestnut Media Records Album release party of Hardcore Metal band Conformity- DOA, the Rise of….
I think it's simply that Apple could pwn CES if they wanted to– they don't need a little show dedicated to the Mac when their products are so innovative. Nobody has been able to seriously threaten the iPod's dominance in music players, and the iPhone is quickly taking over. Why would Apple want to invest so much in an Apple-only conference? Makes perfect sense– Apple wants to be different as in better, not different as in separate.
My opinion: I'll take the most obvious road.
They have no major product announcement. I would be a sad ending to their Macworld participation to have Jobs not have 'just one more thing'.
Perhaps they were planning to announce products that are running behind on development or are being re thought based on the economic climate.
In terms of late notice, it may a Jobs call. He's known as a perfectionist.
Actually, if it IS political as Jim Goldman states, given the history of problems between Apple and IDG who runs the conventions, then going out with a whimper fits. Why give IDG a final bang?
The people who think Steve is sick are sick in the head. It's clear that Steve knows what his fiduciary responsibility is, and would announce if he had some physical issue that would not let him perform his duties.
Steve is just in his "think different" mode.
In response to your question as to what expenses are incurred by doing the keynote presentations.
If you do a little research you should be able to find a story or two written over the last couple of decades that talk about the grueling schedules that go into putting together a Steve Jobs keynote. Literally dozens of people are pulled off whatever they are working on to concentrate on the keynote. Jobs spends 40 to 60 hours/week to 2 to 4 weeks getting what he wants, getting things polished, getting the guests that he wants, getting them trained to his standards — and then he polishes and tweaks and rewrites and sometimes replaces large sections right up until the presentation itself.
By the time it's all said and done, a Steve Jobs keynote sometimes touches the efforts of hundreds of Apple developers scrambling to ensure that there is something to show. A half-dozen developers and a dozen testers might work ridiculous hours for two weeks to ensure that a single feature works flawlessly. While graphic designers ensure that each slide is perfect. With Steve Jobs making sure that he likes where things are headed.
The 90 minutes are nothing. But there are man-years of effort behind each of those 90 minutes.
reinharden
Steve's health is just fine. Here is the scoop:
He was drafting his presentation using "Keynote" when Software Update notified him to install the 10.5.6 update. When he did so, his Mac crashed.
Thus, he threw out his Macbook, went to Costco, bought a Dell, and became a Vista fanboy.
Mystery solved.
Sorry to hear about the end of MacWorld — I attended them as a developer starting in '83. But I understand the economics involved, and they are very expensive to run, not only for Apple, but for developers.
Re Steve's health …. I would think that if this was the last MacWorld, Steve would want to be there to deliver a final speech about the history of the event, and to pump up the brand. At least that. So I am concerned about the last minute bail out. Worse case, if Steve were to turn over the helm, there is enough talent, long term vision, and stuff on the drawing boards at Apple to carry the company for many years to come. Buy on any dips!
Sure he is sick, but I am confident the reason he isn't keynoting is that he only wants to keynote exciting news and Apple doesn't have any. Perhaps they planned to demo something exciting but it didn't come together in time. He is very good at controlling press, and he knows his presence needs to mean something.
Re: Steve Jobs' health:
What a bunch of ghouls! Give the man some privacy, for crimeny's sake! Be grateful for what he's given us, and quit your bitchin' about the future! If he's with us, fantastic! If he's not, Apple will STILL be a great company, thanks in no small part to his fantastic contributions!
Re: MacWorld in SF:
How sad to see this great convention end! I have many, many fond memories of MacWorlds I've attended.
But if it truly is the last, I hope Steve at least attends, even if he doesn't give the Keynote. It deserves a little hoopla!
Whether or not this change of mind is due to Jobs' health, we can wager that no new products are getting introduced this January due to the situation. Apple may as well keep milking the iTunes store because hardware/accessory sales are bound to take a hit for the first half of 2009 (at the very least).
This is getting scary. Have you seen how thin Jobs is? He is definitely sick and that worries me about the entire company. Jobs is Apple!
Clearly, something is going on here which Apple and IDG are keeping mum about. It would be like the President failing to deliver his final State of the Union address and sending the VP in.
Their official line is a bunch of bull.
Maybe he is NOT ok. If that is the case, it's not a good thing, as outsiders, to be speculating here that he actually is ok. It were best if Apple came with a statement confirming either the one or the other…
Quite simply this is the passing of the baton to new leadership at Apple. What a perfect way for Steve to show the world the confidence he has in his replacement!
You would think that if Steve Jobs were really ill, the employees and staff at Apple headquarters would be buzzing…after all, I would imagine that on a normal day, Steve can be seen walking around and interacting with all levels of the staff around the corporate offices…even if it is only in a particular part of the complex.
Rumors of Steve's health would surely "leak" out through employees if they were true…and we haven't seen or heard any of those yet.
I heard that Steve has pancreatic cancer. If true, this would certainly account for the weight loss.
ex ped: Jobs was treated for pancreatic cancer four years ago. The question is whether it has returned or is there is some other explanation for his recent weight loss.