Comments on: What if the iPhone were an iPod?

By: Brent Fudge, Peterborough, Ontario

Brent Fudge, Peterborough, Ontario — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 00:12:24 +0000

ipod Newton anyone?

By: TimboM, Madison, WI

TimboM, Madison, WI — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 16:34:07 +0000

Let me start by saying to certain posters that I don't understand what value is provided by the use of terms like 'moron' or 'stupid'. Take your aggression elsewhere. If you want to make a point go ahead and make it without such vitriol. If you're so smart that you've done all the strategic and quantitative analysis about everything Apple under the sun, why are you looking at this news site?

But back to the subject at hand. I think that the Muller analysis is an extension of the GAAP vs. Non-GAAP accounting methodology for iPhone which hides the truly awesome financial power of this product away from, as Andy Zaky puts it, the seeming majority of analysts and others who don't get it. Consider a scenario where Apple sells as many iPhones in each of the next 9 quarters as they did in their financial Q4/08. This was 6.9 million (you can argue about channel stuffing and whatever but let's just assume that they can keep doing it). Also assume that Apple books $500 revenue for each iPhone. This is on the lower side of the $600 to $650 estimates that prevail.

Because of the multiplicative effect of the 8-quarter subscription revenue model, Apple would book $6.04 billion revenue in their 2009, and $12.94 billion revenue in their 2010.

Remarkable!

By: cynik, switzerland

cynik, switzerland — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:31:59 +0000

I have noting to say about the iPod today.

But I can say that Europe is US friendly again. And the dollar is strong so we expect to see you over here and on the slopes this winter.

Welcome back to the world, America. Good to see you again.

By: Brad Cathey, Wheaton, IL

Brad Cathey, Wheaton, IL — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:48:01 +0000

IMHO, the iPhone is only part iPod. It's basically a computer that makes phone calls…and plays music, and a bunch of other cool stuff. The investor needs to realize that in a few years this iPod/iPhone could have a port for a keyboard and printer and run iWork. A handheld computer for $199. Hmmmmm…

By: iphonerulez, Brooklyn, New York

iphonerulez, Brooklyn, New York — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:08:31 +0000

Many analysts claim the iPhone is not an iPod, but I don't see what they base this on. How can an iPhone eat into iPod sales when the iPhone is an iPod that makes telephone calls. Steve said it was an iPod. The problem is the name. It should never have been called an iPhone. It should have been called the iPodphone and then there wouldn't have been this confusion.

I still don't see how the iPod is sputtering towards the end of it's life cycle. There should always be room for new iPods when the older one's expire. An iPhone is not necessarily a substitute for an iPod.

Still, the only thing that should matter is the amount of money flowing into Apple's coffers. If it flows in faster each year, does it really make a difference which product name is making it happen.

By: pk de cville, va

pk de cville, va — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 16:14:10 +0000

To jp,

If you're an investor you need to recalibrate your estimate of what the iPhone is, really.

Simply put, if the other phones are 'smartphones', the iPhone is a 'geniusphone': the 1st major (soon to be) dominant computing platform in 13 years.

PED, Your articles are great. I regret the abuse some have given you about "Of course, it's an iPod." This article is important because most investors don't get this simple fact.

By: FreeRange, Denver, CO

FreeRange, Denver, CO — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:45:41 +0000

To JP, NY – The storm may be doing well in Europe, but it will have little effect on the iphone. You fail to realize that the iphone is based on an entire ecosystem, one in which its software, functionality and ease of use are unmatched across the spectrum of that ecosystem – desktop, laptop, phone, multimedia player, web access, iTunes integration, applications, etc. Further, the route to success for a brand is not FREE. That is what has so severely damaged so many other players in the market, especially Motorola. Furhter, as history shows us, Apple will continue to dramatically improve this offering through true innovation. RIM is a one trick pony.

By: Chris, Milwaukee, WI

Chris, Milwaukee, WI — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:21:53 +0000

Funny, all you people saying "moron" and "stupid" still read the article…. The hyper-information age will have redundancies within months or days that would have spanned years in the past. Redundancies can inform some people who haven't caught the "first wave". Get the stick out.

By: jp new york new york

jp new york new york — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:17:57 +0000

the ipod had no competition. the storm from blackberry which is being handed out for free in europe and will be available at a discount to the i pphone here from verizon is a very favorably reviewed formidable competition for the i phone which will eat into sales significantly.

By: Kevin, Redding CA

Kevin, Redding CA — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:16:32 +0000

I don't know…. it seems like PED is becoming and Apple fan.

p.s. IMHO that is a good thing.