Comments on: Q4 earnings: A guide to Apple's guidance

By: Anonymous2 Burlington,WI

Anonymous2 Burlington,WI — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 15:34:26 +0000

realitybites wrote: "Apple’s guidance states pretty much the worst case scenerio is and so far, the results are always better. That’s not playing, they are being conservative to the point of never disappointing their stockholders.

The real problem is the shorts, the “analysts” that work with them to create the uncertainty by belaboring false information or supposition that gets press but that for some reason never bears fruit.

Personally, I believe that the SEC should investigate them all, there aren’t enough of these guys in prison cells yet, but there should be."

Could not agree more: analysts who inflate estimates beyond the companies' own EPS/Rev./guidance – without rock-solid facts to back their deviations, should be prosecuted for fraud and illegal attempts to influence share price. Their links to owners of options contracts should be closely monitored, also. Clearly the leverage there makes it very profitable to steer prices to new lows once thought unimaginable.

By: Andy, Washington DC

Andy, Washington DC — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 13:57:08 +0000

As a shareholder and long time supporter of Apple I sure hope they blow past their usually above forecast earnings, otherwise the stock will go to $80. Two questions will take center stage, Steve Jobs health and International growth. The answers to these questions will determine the share price direction

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:46:37 +0000

Rev and Earnings are good but for Apple I'm more interested in its growth in Cash flow. We all know that earnings from the iphone is spread out over 24 months which leads to distored earnings.

No one will be ignoring Cash Flow once Apple post 35 Billion in cash or equivalence next year.

Unfortunately, in the mean time, Analyst will be using the earnings as the key investment matrix–how ever wrong it is.

By: Andy, Portland, OR

Andy, Portland, OR — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 17:35:05 +0000

Potential 6-month upside for AAPL is $35, and downside is $10.

By: BMWTwisty Johnstown, PA

BMWTwisty Johnstown, PA — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:55:27 +0000

You could make this piece even more interesting by showing Apple's stock price in the hours before and after their reports.

By: Andy, Portland, OR

Andy, Portland, OR — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:51:26 +0000

The way Apple doesn't care how investors think tells me that the company is very confident about their future. There are probably many wonderful products being developed.

By: Murphy, Charlotte, NC

Murphy, Charlotte, NC — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:07:12 +0000

As a long time long I've learned not to get excited about quarterly earnings. Wall Street can't ignore Apple's gains in market share forever. At some point the share price will get rolling and the shorts will be punished.

I wouldn't give much consideration to what an analyst says. I'm long on Apple because they have a multi-front product mix that's gaining market share rapidly. There competition is leveled out and failing to innovate. I don't care about expectations and wild guesses that continuously prove to be wrong.

- Murphy Mac – Over 100 Mac Screencasts

By: Rich, Washington, DC

Rich, Washington, DC — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:05:11 +0000

And for those who can see through FUD, and are willing to hold a phenomenal company over the long term… It is an opportunity to build some wealth (old school investing)

By: Jim Ft Laud FL

Jim Ft Laud FL — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:51:06 +0000

Well done Phillip. This is good information for those not in the know.

By: realitybites, nyc, ny

realitybites, nyc, ny — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:29:02 +0000

Ken,

If you actually analyze what the analysts have been saying over the last 20 quarters, You'll note that they by in large are always so wrong it's pathetic.

It's as if wishing could make it so and yet it doesn't.

The worst is Katherine Huberty, when you study her analyses, you'll discover that overall, she actually hasn't been right about Apple, ever.

Apple is a conservative company and doesn't predict big profits and huge numbers.

Apple's guidance states pretty much the worst case scenerio is and so far, the results are always better.

That's not playing, they are being conservative to the point of never disappointing their stockholders.

The real problem is the shorts, the "analysts" that work with them to create the uncertainty by belaboring false information or supposition that gets press but that for some reason never bears fruit.

Personally, I believe that the SEC should investigate them all, there aren't enough of these guys in prison cells yet, but there should be.