Comments on: Apple iPhone 3Gs: 9,190,680 and counting

By: Turley Muller, Memphis

Turley Muller, Memphis — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 22:21:04 +0000

There is no way there are many iphones in inventory- there was a shortage of 8GB- many went to BBY beginning of Sept- and then Apple shifted production into iPod touch last two weeks of Sept because there are massive shortages there and Apple wanted to fill some of that channel demand that it could record sales in the Sept quarter. It came at the expense of having some shortages in the 8GB and 16GB white models. However, when Sept quarter ended, iPhone production ramped back up again and the 8GB models being sold now are fresh of the boat. If there were iPhone piled up somewhere why then would there be stock outs?

Maybe there are 50K in inventory at Apple stores. Apple is on the 9M build now. Being conservative and taking out 1.5M (which is very conservative) the number is 7.5M.

By: Ken C, Gardiner, Maine

Ken C, Gardiner, Maine — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 20:40:28 +0000

If Ed Sickler is right, (he's not), but assume he is, that the AFB prediction on EDGE iPhone sales, using the same IMEI methodology was off by 400,000, then that's not at all bad. That's an error of less than 10%. If I did my math correctly Zaky and Muller are allowing for 15% overestimation for 3G iPhones. 7.6M it is, then, and 10M this year, 3 months early.

By: Mark, Edinburgh, Scotland

Mark, Edinburgh, Scotland — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 18:07:08 +0000

Interesting although there are problems with it. Looking at the data point distribution it doesn't tie up with the notion that 9 million have been sold – the majority of the points refer to July and August sales with a considerable slowdown in September.

In other words, it's entirely possible there are a hell of a lot more than 1.5 million units sitting on shelves or in storage. The figures here actually suggest a sales volume closer to 6 million than 8 million.

By: Andy Zaky, Huntington Beach, CA

Andy Zaky, Huntington Beach, CA — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:17:51 +0000

@Ed,

Care to show me this so called spreadsheet that tracked gen 1's IMEI numbers? Or did you just make that up? Also, you're right, analysts don't get it right. But I do. I have a track record, while analysts are full of shit.

By: Cranborg, Waterloo ON

Cranborg, Waterloo ON — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:17:34 +0000

You mean that all these other smart phone companies that are rushing out new models, lowering margins, conducting huge marketing campaigns, etc… Might actually be responding the SUCCESS OF THE iPHONE??? I thought they were just doing so because it was fun — perhaps I was wrong again! I wonder why we assume all their bad news must be bad news for Apple too? It's tough having the gamechanging device with success to go with it but being seen amongst the pack.

Remember to watch free cash flow for real impact on aapl. Initial impact is muted to those less knowing of their accounting methods as they recognize the iPhone revenue over 24 months!

By: Dave, Boston, MA.

Dave, Boston, MA. — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 14:37:26 +0000

@Ed Sicklerville, NJ

Mr. SICK, YOU ARE ONE DISTURBED DUDE. DON'T COVER YOUR SHORTS. IT WOULD BE NICE IF YOU LOST AS MUCH ON APPLE AS THE LONGS HAVE BASED ON "ANALYST" WORTHLESS PREDICTIONS. YOU KNOW, THE FEAR MONGERS!!! IN MY BOOK, THEY ARE CRIMINALS THAT MANIPULATE STOCK PRICES.

By: Ed, Sicklerville NJ

Ed, Sicklerville NJ — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:48:56 +0000

they had a spreadsheet for generation1 also…and missed by over 400.000. remember how many gen 1 's were sold?

They had a spreadsheet then too.

yes, I read the story…maybe you should put a question mark at the end of your headline?? Or are you THAT confident a third party google spreadsheet is correct when top analysts can't even get it right?

ex ped: Actually Andy Zaky's predictions have held up pretty well against your top analysts'. See here.

By: BMWTwisty Johnstown, PA

BMWTwisty Johnstown, PA — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:48:38 +0000

Despite busting your chops regularly (legitimately, I believe) you deserve credit for posting good information this time. The methodology used is pretty sound. Of course you could be busy writing a caveat that some of these iPhones could, as someone suggested, be just ripe for some mythical recall, thus pummeling the stock even lower

By: Brian

Brian — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:34:38 +0000

No question they have already sold 10 Million. RIM is running about as scared as the typical Windows fanboy at this point, too. Listen to their conference call–they whined on an on about how unfair it was to have to actually compete, and how impossible it was to do it at the $199 price point. Ha.

Prior to iPhone, all RIM had to worry about was Windows Mobile. That's like putting your phone up against two tin cans and string.

By: TimboM, Madison, WI

TimboM, Madison, WI — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 13:14:38 +0000

@Ed, bizarre comment considering the spreadsheet is right there. Question the method or assumptions but the fact that they shared the actual spreadsheet means that they must be confident of their method. Please keep the discussion in the real world – you are entitled to your own opinions but not your own fact.

To author, considering that Apple only has about 10 days of inventory on its balance sheet, that further strengthens the accuracy of using produced inventory as a proxy for sold. In other words, if they are not piling this up somewhere, which would show on the balance sheet, this is a good start to get the sales.

I just hope that after being punished tremendously for factors unrelated to financial performance, that Apple shareholders receive corresponding benefits when they announce earnings in 2 weeks.