This isn't a slight on AAPL, which I still see trading in the $ 250 range by the end of 2010, it's just an estimate of the market's reaction to their earnings and guidance.

A delicate and

soft wind is

blowing near an

empty space,

while the curtain

covers a silky

notepaper describing

a picture and the

love for the youth;

I call you my

darkness, I wait

for a dream……

Francesco Sinibaldi

I have to admit, you do have a point. Right now Apple has a trailing PE of 34 – compared to Dell 18 and HP 14. In this market at the edge of the Great Republican Recession, this PE is pretty darn high already.

A lot of people are taking money out of the market, and if there ain't no money then the prices will fall. Real Apple investor just need to hold tight. In the end – which may be 4 months from now or 4 years from now – Apple will rise to its real valuation.

(Of course, some of that 34 PE is due to over 20B in cash).

You said:

"That’s the cycle these days, Apple provides ultra-conservative guidance and down appl goes."

Well – Apple does seem to provide guidance somewhere in left field, but they do not provide out of the ball park.

I think they are going to look at the iPhone numbers and the App Store numbers and provide a guidance that will blow people away. It will still be their conservative guidance, but will be above the estimates. )In other words – add another 10%)

Let's face it – If Apple thought they would sell so many iPhones they would have prepared for it. So it has clearly exceeded their expectations. They WILL be taking that into account when they give out guidance.

IMHO

Monday evening we will know.

I know many that have iPhones on back order. Not only is the phone on back order but the shipping is too.

So they don't know when and where the phone will be manufactured or who or when will ship the phone.

That's ate up like a soup sandwich.