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AT&T promises Wi-Fi speeds on its 3G network by 2009


How fast will the new iPhone run on AT&T's 3G network?

Plenty fast, according to promises made by AT&T (T) mobility chief Ralph de la Vega at Morgan Stanley's annual Communications Conference on Wednesday.

De la Vega said that a version of the network was already running in AT&T labs at 7.2 megabits per second, which according to AppleInsider's Katie Marsal is double the theoretical throughput of the company's HSPA (High Speed Packet Access) network. (link)

It also happens to match the specs of the Infineon (IFX) SGOLD3 chip Apple has reportedly chosen to serve as the new iPhone's cellular modem. See here.

Throughput of 7.2 Mbps would put the 3G iPhone within spitting distance of Wi-Fi speeds, which typically run between 6.5 Mbps and 20 Mbps.

But de la Vega didn't stop there. According to Marsal, he told the Morgan Stanley audience that sometime in 2009 the company will transition to HSPA release 7, which could deliver speeds "exceeding 20 megabits per second." (link)

Of course, we won't know how fast Apple's (AAPL) 3G iPhone really is until someone gets their hands on one and runs some good benchmark tests in the wild. AT&T EDGE network, after all, is rated at up to 236.8 kbps, but when put to the test, actual throughput turned out to be in the 50 to 90 kbps range (see here).

In February, AT&T said it expected to deliver 3G services to some 350 leading U.S. markets before the end of 2008, including all of the top 100 U.S. cities (link). Owners of 3G iPhone in the other U.S. markets will have to make do with EDGE — or whatever stray Wi-Fi signals they manage to pick up.

Typical AT&T hype. Show me where AT&T's 3G network is running at 3.6 Mbps today – hardly anywhere. Ralph should concentrate on getting the whole data network running @ 3.6 Mbps before blathering on about 7.2 and beyond. The 3G iPhone users are being set up for a big disappointment. Typical real-world 3G data speeds on AT&T's network are closer to 750 Kbps, and the browsing experience isn't markedly different from the EDGE network.

Just wait until the first 3G iPhones hit and the owners run speed tests and find that they are getting closer to 1 Mbps than 3 Mbps. Knowing the fury of an AAPL fanboy scorned, I predict lawsuits galore.

Posted By Dan, Boston, MA: May 15, 2008 3:04 PM

This is exciting news! After making the jump from Verizon to the quicker AT&T network I have to say I've been pretty happy. And to hear that AT&T is going to offer speeds that outpace my cable modem is awesome! I stream live video from my mobile with Next2Friends at 15fps. I thought 30fps was a bit further off into the future, it turns out it might only be a few months away! Sweet!

Posted By Hans Erik, Brooklyn, NY: May 15, 2008 12:53 PM

Although the 3g Iphone will hit several months ahead of it's rumored release; I have to believe that Blackberry's "Thunder" coming out through Verizon and Vodaphone are going to make potential corporate customers wait and see. If Blackberry's engineers can execute the touchscreen effectively you can bet that alot of wind is going to be taken out of Iphone's corporate push. This is just getting more and more interesting.

Posted By Dave, Cleveland, Ohio: May 15, 2008 8:24 AM

This shouldn't be a surprise. 7.2 Mbps HSDPA is already up and running in Europe.

The comparison to Wi-Fi speeds is specious. Wi-Fi is a WLAN technology; HSPA, WWAN (wireless LAN v wireless WAN).

With WLAN, you might get 90 Mbps with 802.11n Wi-Fi, even (in my testing, I have), but you still need backhaul, which is rarely more than a few Mbps in most hotspots. Maybe 6 Mbps in a very well equipped hotspot.

With WWAN–cell data–you're still limited by backhaul, but the local speed (say 7.2 Mbps) is designed to be the speed over which you access network resources.

In the fact, the biggest problem facing the cell industry isn't delivering more bandwidth at the edge, like a WLAN (meaning more speed to a device from a tower), but delivering more backhaul to the cell towers from the rest of their network.

That's why Sprint has delayed WiMax. Being able to push out peaks of 10 Mbps per customer means you need 10s of Mbps at each base station that feeds WiMax, and they don't have the wire (Sprint owns no wire any more), and haven't geared up all the sites with wireless.

In Europe, 75% of cell towers use wireless backhaul, which has made it easier for them to swap equipment and bump up backhaul rates. If you have fiber, you're also in good shape. But with copper, which is what brings in bandwidth to many cell towers, the backhaul is a bitch.

ex ped: Thanks, Glenn. Very helpful. As usual.

Posted By Glenn Fleishman, Seattle, WA: May 14, 2008 5:45 PM

Funny, this article about ATT but all the posts about APPL. It is amazing what Apple did (hate them/love them) to the industry in very short time. As far as fast speeds and reliable access on wireless networks in US, vendors better stop talking and start delivering.

http://www.ismashphone.com

Posted By iSmashPhone, Philadelphia PA: May 14, 2008 4:40 PM

Apple is modestly lower today on profit taking. That's it. It's had a huge run up of late, and some $$ is being taken off the table. In my opinion, it'll regroup low 180s then run to boiling ($212) around June 9 conference.

Posted By Baculum, San Fran: May 14, 2008 3:42 PM

Sorry, DAvid from LA… your analysis is wrong. 3G will be available in 350 markets by the end of the year… but most already have it. See below for the full list list.

http://www.wireless.att.com/coverageviewer/popUp_3g.jsp

Posted By david in SF: May 14, 2008 3:40 PM

AAPL stock is selling down while the overall market is up. I can't find any other reason except this article. Most notably the last paragraph. This implies that the coveted 3g capability will not be useful until the end of the year if you are using it on AT&T. For other users 3g is completely worthless ???

I don't think so. Apple isn't that stupid.

We have already seen inferences that the 3g iPhone will not be strapped to ATT service only, but will be open to other services.

Why else would AT&T mention that they will be offering a $200 discount on new iPhones bought with their service?

ex ped: I'm pretty sure my humble column can't move the market like that. I suspect anything that happens to Apple this week has more to do with options that are about to expire.

Posted By DAvid, Los Angeles, CA: May 14, 2008 3:27 PM

I can't wait for the 3G iPhone to hit the street so we can stop all of the AAPL bashing and let the stock run to where it should be…$300 per share!!!!!!!!

Posted By Rich Brulato Charlotte NC: May 14, 2008 3:11 PM
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Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Steve Jobs, goes the old joke at Apple, is surrounded by a reality distortion field; get too close and you believe what he's saying. Apple has made believers out of millions of customers — and made a lot of investors rich — but Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple – and watching Steve Jobs operate — since 1982.
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