True, but we may be headed toward something more akin to either a depression or hyper inflation. The monetary policy of the Bush Administration has been to print money, print money, print money to try and drag the 'lending' economy along for the past 8 years. The fact is the longer you try and put this downturn off, the worse it will be. The old 'wheel barrow' of money for a loaf of bread will be replaced with a car full of money to buy a large screen TV.

While house prices have been going up at 25 and 30% this wasn't just an increase in some before unimagined value, it was inflation. The price of an average house went far beyond the average income – and banks just let people borrow more (and lowered their standards) to reach it. And people borrowed against this imaginary value (my house is worth 6 times what it was two years ago!) they made it even worse, not to mention what Wall Street did by selling these mortgage packages, and reselling, and reselling.

This very well could be worse then a recession.

http://cartoonshmartoon.blogspot.com/

Apple has it all, and still years to come ahead.

If we see and analize how Apple is doing, there's no way that Apple is doing wrong, it's just thanks to weak scared analists that act like sheeps with no path, that the stock is so volatile.

The retail stores are expanding and very popular. They have the greatest and most reliable computers in the market. The most wanted Chrsitmas gift by far was the iPod, ask Santa Claus. The iPhone is so ahead of time that nothing comes close to it. Then comes iTunes, movies, music, just the perfect business model, and I could go on forever…

People are usually very happy to make 20% of anual profit in their investments, Apple gave us more than 100% profits just last year! If analists think they know so well how to invest money and expect more than 100% profits again this year maybe it won't happen again, so what? I will still be very happy with a 20%, all the rest is bonus and I can bet anyone that 20% is a joke on this stock!

Apple is a very solid company that for sure will exceed all Wall Street expectations (again) and the growth of market share in Apple computers and products can only grow more.

You didnt do enough research for this article. At the end of the fourth quarter report the wall street consensus was for 8.7 billion for the first quarter. Apple said forget that number and forecast it as 9.2 billion. That is an extra 500 million dollars. So if apple beats that with 9.4 to 9.5 it would have easily beaten wall street estimates 3 months ago.

ex ped: You're right, Apple surprised analysts with its guidance last quarter. That's why the piece referred to it as "uncharacteristically unconservative."

Thoughtful response.

Amazon IS a major channel. Of course you are right when you say that the Apple retail stores and the online store are larger, but we can never get any information from them at all.

As far as I know, Amazon does not release any figures. However – the rankings (go to any sector page and sort by "best selling") are frequently cited not only in blogs, but by analysts as a valid indication of how a product is doing.

Of course you are correct in both your points: (1) if there is a recession then Apple – along with everyone else, will be hurt, and (2) no company can grow exponentially forever.

To (1) I answer – If a company is in a high growth mode, then it will weather the recession better than others. Growth will, of course, be affected, but at least (I expect) there will still be some growth rather than shrinkage as in other tech firms.

To (2) – At some point growth will have to slow. But this day (recession aside!) is several years off. Mac has a brand new, very hot product in a totally new sector (iPhone). Also, since the Mac's world wide market share is only something like 5 or 6 %, there is room for it to grow for a long time. If it were to double market share every year (an impossible feat, really) until it reached 50% (a quite possible number), then that would still be (5%, 10, 20, 40, 50 – very roughly) 3 years of exponential growth. if it grew share at only 1.25x (very high but possible) then the growth would be sustainable for even longer.

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So ask – is it really possible that Mac could attain 50% share? I answer, if it is true that the Mac is a superior OS (as a longtime software engineer, I do believe that), and it is more reliable and ultimately much cheaper to run, then yes it is possible.

Ask yourself – in all these blogs there are detractors as well as supporters. How many times have you seen an IT person say "I have (my company has) switched to a Mac(s), and I will never go back to Windows!" I have many times. NOW -have you EVER seen an IT person say "I just switched from Mac environment to Windows and I love it."????? ever?

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Finally – I stand by my statement earlier – we are used to buying things online sight unseen, but usually this is a familiar product. to me it is astounding that the Air is this popular (right now #6 of all laptops on Amazon) and NO ONE HAS EVER SEEN ONE!

Shows a lot of faith in Apple.

the fact that the MacBook Air is