The odds on an Apple flash laptop
At next month's Macworld show, will the trendsetter say goodbye to hard drives?
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| Apple's MacBook Pro could get a storage upgrade soon. Image: Apple |
What do you get when you cross an iPod with a Mac?
A super-slim laptop that uses chip-based flash memory in place of a spinning hard drive, of course. If the rumors are right, Apple (AAPL) will unveil one at the annual Macworld confab next month.
Before you begin salivating from gadget lust however, be forewarned. The rumors should be taken with a grain of salt (or a whole tub of it if you have one handy) — and not just because Apple prognosticators have predicted for years that an ultra-light dream machine is right around the corner.
The real reason to doubt is this: If Steve Jobs unveils a flash-based laptop in January, it could be his gutsiest move since the iPod nano. Why would a FlashBook be such a gamble? Because while it’s a cool idea, it’s not clear whether enough customers would pay the premium Apple would inevitably charge for such cutting-edge technology.
Yes, flash storage helps a laptop to do cool tricks like slim down, boot up faster and extend battery life. But there are tradeoffs too. For instance, flash handles data differently than a hard drives does, so software workarounds are needed for heavy-duty tasks like video editing. Marketing VP Greg Joswiak mentioned the storage performance issue to me during an Apple event this past summer, which suggests that the company is weighing the pros and cons.
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| Samsung's flash storage drives can replace hard drives in laptops. Image: Samsung |
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There’s also price. Consider that the MacBook Pro, Apple’s professional laptop, already starts at $2,000 with a 120-gigabyte hard drive. How much of a premium would a flash drive add? For a clue, take a look at Sony’s Vaio TZ Series, which includes models with 48GB and 32GB flash drives. Models with the flash drive option can easily cost $900 to $1,300 more, with a third of the storage space. As Apple seeks to expand its market share, it has to be careful about adding features that put its wares out of reach to all but the fattest wallets.
But don’t take this to mean Apple won’t put flash in its laptops at all. The company is notorious for getting components at bargain prices, thanks to the negotiating chops of CEO Jobs and the logistics prowess of chief operating officer Tim Cook. Because of the iPod and iPhone, Apple is already a very important customer of Samsung, the world’s largest provider of flash memory — so the company is in as good a position as anyone to get the best deal if it decides to add flash to the mix.
And Jobs is clearly not afraid to take chances; don’t forget the bold move Apple made with the iPod nano. Even though the hard drive-based iPod mini was at the height of its popularity, Apple replaced it with the flash-based iPod nano and a new design — a risk that boosted the gadget’s popularity even further.
If you can pay for the parts, flash-based laptops can deliver some sweet surprises. I recently spent some time with a laptop running Microsoft (MSFT) Windows XP with an Intel (INTC) Core 2 Duo processor, which Samsung sent me to demonstrate the performance of its 2.5-inch NAND flash storage drive. Though the laptop itself didn’t have a slim design to take advantage of the flash, I did notice that it went about its business silently, even as I launched and shut down programs. As a longtime laptop user, I’ve gotten used to hearing the pesky whir of a hard drive when I switch tasks, so the peace and quiet was a weird thrill.
Those kinds of benefits have led some high-tech observers to think Apple will add flash storage to its Mac recipe sooner than later. Richard Doherty, director of research at the Envisioneering Group consulting firm, thinks Apple is likely developing a flash-based touch-screen laptop reminiscent of the iPhone, which people in the graphics and publishing industries could use to share ideas. “The multi-touch technology is too good for just a 3.5-inch phone,” Doherty says. “If it’s not at Macworld, I think it’s something in the cards for the next year.”
Doherty also pointed out that because Apple controls both its hardware and its operating system, it could probably squeeze better performance out of a flash-based Mac than competitors would get out of Windows laptops. And it could be slimmer and more durable; a flash-based laptop would run significantly cooler than a machine with a hard drive, so engineers would not have to worry as much about adding design elements to help dissipate heat. If Apple doesn’t want to build a laptop with an all-flash hard drive, the company could take a gradual approach as well, and employ a new breed of “hybrid drives” that use a combination of flash storage and a traditional hard drive.
Whatever the solution, Steve Jobs will need to summon heavy doses of both engineering and marketing magic to turn an inevitably pricy flash-based laptop into a must-have item. Still, those who dream of seeing one on the Macworld stage next month can take heart; for Apple fans, January is when dreams sometimes come true.
DAP: Digital Audio Player
In 1998, Compaq made the first hard drive based DAP using a 2.5" laptop drive. It was licensed to HanGo Electronics (now known as Remote Solution), which first sold the PJB-100 (Personal Jukebox) in 1999. The player had an initial capacity of 4.8 GB, which was advertised to be able to hold 1200 songs.[10]
In October 2001, Apple Computer (now known as Apple Inc.) unveiled the first generation iPod, the 5 GB hard drive based DAP with a 1.8" Toshiba laptop drive. Having focused on developing an intuitive user interface, the smaller form factor and industrial design made the player notable within users of the Macintosh community. In July 2002, Apple introduced the second generation update to the iPod. It was compatible with Windows computers through Musicmatch Jukebox (now known as Y!Music Musicmatch Jukebox). The iPod series, which grew to include microdrive and flash-based players, has become the market leader in DAPs.
APPLE IS NOT THE FIRST ONE TO MANUFACTURE mp3 PLAYER GUYS GET A GRIP
here's the thing: you really can't think of apple as a hardware AND software company anymore. I love apple products because of what apple is today: a software and electronics company. yes, they do use the same parts other computer companies use and they should be priced lower or the hardware should be better for the amount they charge. i would much rather build my own computer and install leopard on it (and you CAN if you know what you're doing). the problem with apple haters is that they are the ones that think apple should be perfect when nothing is.
Apple can be very reliable and better running as it does not have a million processes that arent needed at once like windows does, also most viruses and bugs and spyware and all are created for windows. However, the big advantage of having windows or PC instead of mac is this. Think of it as a honda vs a bmw. You can have a turbo honda beat a BMW for less the cost, plus the parts are so commercial its cheap if it ever does break down. For example, the Iphone, Ipod and even macbook you need to send it back to mac to repair. It is quite hell. As a previous user from Colorado said, the creative MP3 player is better because it has easy replaceable parts, is more compatible with other programs and you dont need stupid Itunes. The HTC touch phone has the same interface as the iphone, except its better looking, slimmer, and doesnt look like a hard drive with a touch screen. It has replaceable battery, expandable memory, does take video, and you can instal/delete whatever programs you choose. Apple needs to lose its stupid exclusivity that is preventing it to become a REAL COMPETITOR against microsoft.
Putting aside my dislike for Apple products, when will Apple get off their high horse and get with the program??? What I mean is, Apple makes the Ibook affordable at $1000, but overall, the specs suck. Low hard drive, low memory, etc. We just got a laptop for my mother-in-law for $800 with upgraded memory. It has a true 512MB video card, now has 3GB of ram, a fast dual core processor, and a 2 year manufacturers warranty. NO IT IS NOT A DELL! I actually like my mother-in-law. It should also be mentioned that she a graphic designer for the city she lives in. They tried to give her a Mac, she found it to be too slow. I'm not a graphic designer so I can't give technical reasons.
As much as I REALLY hate to say it, Apple has a good product, they just need to come back down to Earth and start lowering their prices. It is no longer a special "Mac Processor" It's an Intel Core 2 Duo, it's standard memory, no more SCSI devices. The parts are the same!! Why does it cost hundreds of dollars more to buy Mac????? Because Steve Jobs says that is the way it should be.
I know that I'll have a bunch of Apple kissers telling me I'm wrong and go on and on about Ipods, and Iphones, and Ithis, Ithat, well, Idon'tcare. I am a gamer, When I watch TV and see the latest games that are coming out, I see PS2, PS3, 360, and PC. You can use software to make a Mac fake it, don't it doesn't run real games.
Please don't start comparing Apples to Dell's. It's an insult to Apple. Dell's are good for business, I'm a repair tech, they are my number 1 customer.
I just really wish apple would stop being like "oooh we just came out with some cool new stuff!" when SSD technology has been being used in PC's for a couple of years now. JEEZ apple, get over yourself!
Uh guys, they still haven't solved the port replication problem yet. the port replicators are an expensive joke that you STILL can't power up the machine with out opening it. as well as the clam shell mode.
Flash drive sounds cool but frankly that's the easy fix. How about the port replicators?
Dear guy from denver colorado with teh creative zen mp3. stop being cheap and just buy the apple ipod!
With Apple you can count on surprises, especially at Macworld where Steve's keynote address is always entertaining,
eloquent and flashy. When it comes to technological innovation and smashing great marketing expertise you can count on both from Apple. As a long time Apple product user I'm really tickled that they've been able to weather all the naysayers and adversity to finally evolve into one of the world's premier companies. For stockholder's the rewards have been unbelievable for those who've perceived the vision and leadership of Steve Jobs and took the chance. As Apple continues to grow there will be glitches along the way as experienced by all rapidly expanding companies. But Apple's service and support have always been at the top of the ratings for consumer satisfaction.
So will Apple transition to flash based memory in its laptops? There's little doubt that as forward looking, cutting edge technologies come online, Apple will be at the forefront of incorporating them into their product line. And it'll be done with style, user friendliness and timing which will keep us all wondering what great innovation is next. 
SSD's are just still too expensive, period.
For now, the best way to slim down a notebook is simply to omit an optical drive. I would bet money that Apple will release a slim notebook sans optical drive next month.
As for an SSD-based subnotebook/UPMC device, I think we're in for some interesting developments.
As SSD prices fall and manufactueres like Sony and Apple can charge "only" a ~$500 premium for a 32 or 64 GB SSD, we can potentially see sub-$1000 SSD UPMC's in the market due to the development of Intel's dime-sized (and practically dime-priced) Silverthorne processor….
For all you Apple loving people. Quit trying to impress your friends with junk. Instead, go out and get yourself a Creative Zen mp3 player. You can skip the high cost of iTunes by the drag & drop method. Download Winamp, its free, and you can listen to listener supported free internet radio. You can also replace the cell phone battery underneath a conveniently located pop out hinge without voiding your warranty. Maybe you should all do your homework instead of trying to look cool.
Thanks,
John Garcia, DENVER,Colorado
The only Apple product that i have purchased has been IPOD.
I would like to tap my hat off to Steve Jobs. Everyone seems to criticize Apple and Steve but Steve and his gangs revolutionized MP3 player when they first showed ipod to the world. Same gang again revolutionized cellphone they showed iphone to the world. The rest has been trying to beat Steve and his gang ever step of the way but Apple has been 2 step ahead.
So instead of trashing Apple for trying to revolutionize laptop same way it did to music player and cellphone we all should root for apple.
to the people talking about a 64GB Flash hard drive not being enough…. are you kidding
until earlier this year i was running a Powerbook G4 with a 40GB HD and wasnt having any problems….
this wont be a replacement just yet for a MBP … it would probably fit inbetween the MBP and the MB as a sub notebook… to which 64GB of HD space will be quite adequate
As long as we're not THINKing SECRETly we're out of the courtroom, right? Keep it up Mr. Fortt…See you in January?
Chris – you need to understand that 60% of laptops Apple currently sells have easily replaceable hard drives. As for iPods the batteries last around 4 years, not 2 or 3, and cost no more than $19-25 to replace with 5 minutes of your time.
Learn facts before you post incorrect information.
Chris D wrote: "Here is a concept for you Apple; make hard drives user replaceable."
Prayer answered, Chris. Instructions on Apple's web site for "do it yourself" hard drive replacement. With pictures.
http://manuals.info.apple.com/en/MacBook_13inch_HardDrive_DIY.pdf
Also: "Every other company allows consumers to upgrade or fix their own notebooks."
All manufacturers allow at least some upgrades (including Apple). NONE permit do-it-yourself repairs under warranty. For example, Dell's notice for the Inspiron 1721 is at http://support.dell.com/support/edocs/systems/ins1721/en/sm/before.htm ("NOTICE: Only a certified service technician should perform repairs on your computer. Damage due to servicing that is not authorized by Dell is not covered by your warranty.")
Note that replacing the hard drive in this model (I chose at random; I'm not familiar with Dell's product line) requires removal of five screws, vs. one on the MacBook.
All these points are really quite good both pro and con. My own hope is that Apple will release something really practical, which I have called the MacBook touch.
We need not simply a thin laptop, but a new class of device that the reading public, I think, is ready for.
You can judge my logic at: http://graysonagency.com/blog
Keep in mind, this is not what some secret intelligence tells me what Apple will do, only what I hope they will do.
Well, a hybrid device would defeat the purpose. If it has a HD it couldn't be ultra-light/thin/power saving.
Not to mention that both components would be VERY expensive.
I don't see how Apple could release a normal laptop with only 64 GB of storage, you would have trouble running out of VM space right away. I doubt any apps, much less the system are written to react gracefully to running out of HD space.
If there is a flash device coming it'll just be a bigger iphone, as the apps for those devices will already be prepared to run with persistent memory limits.
What about flash memory's write-cycle lifetime? If flash memory is only 99% robust over its first 10K cycles, how does that factor in to using it as a primary hard drive?
Ever heard of TimeMachine ? Now, imagine a MacBook sporting a Flash-based drive together with a traditional hard drive : the Flash one will be used for the MacOS system itself plus the apps (goal : speed, silence, and energy savings), the traditional hard drive will be used for the user files and the TimeMachine backup.
A lot of the performance issues of Flash center around the excellent performance of hard drives when dealing with large amounts of sequential data. So, if you're reading a 1G file, you're better off doing that from a hard drive. But if you're reading 1 million 1K files, you're better off doing that from Flash. Access times on Flash can be down to 1ms, which is a decent amount faster than hard drives.
One way that they could deal with this issue is to do a RAID/striping type of solution with the flash. 10 4GB flash chips, or 20 2GB flash chips all running in parallel through one interface…
my dear friends, it's already been done. Looks like CNN's news are slow.
http://www.ryanblock.com/2007/11/the-first-macbook-pro-with-a-64gb-ssd/
I'd bet Jobs will introduce the KILLER APP for the iPhone, namely DICTATION SOFTWARE — that would let a user dictate not only outdoing dialing instructions, but also an outgoing Email message, that could later be downloaded on a desktop machine, and then filed or printed . . . such an app would instantly overturn (totally) the existing cellphone marketplace, no?
I wonder if it would be worth having both flash and a smaller hard drive on a laptop. Load the operating system and key programs on flash and use the hard drive for large file storage
Here is a concept for you Apple; make hard drives user replaceable. Currently hard drives in Apple's notebooks are not easily replaceable. Every other company allows consumers to upgrade or fix their own notebooks. Apple's ignorance shows across their product suite. Look at the iPod, where the user cannot easily replace the battery. Everybody knows batteries only have a two year life span with consistent use. Is it that hard to add a door with a screw?? Oh, I forgot that might hurt your design image. Apple needs to understand that hard drives and batteries both fail and they need to allow the user to upgrade or replace. Flash based drives should be in a swappable bay so the user can swap in a 200GB drive when they need to. It would be nice to see the DVD drive use the same type of swappable bay so the user can have two drives when needed. But these concepts have already been used for years from the likes of Dell, HP, IBM/Lenovo, etc.
Wouldn't it be possible to use the flash drive for most everything and use external HDDs for video/photo editing, I believe a newer and much faster Firewire spec was just announced?
Some system configuration options to consider:
1. Offer both flash and conventional hard drive models.
2. Provide an external hard drive as part of the package (e.g. the 60gb/80gb drives used in iPods).
3. Build a 2-tier system with both flash and small hard drives in them, and an adaptive kernel that knows when and how to migrate data between the two drives.
What we know is the level of engineering (including quality/sturdiness, fitness for use/human factors and total package performance) in Apple products is usually very good. Apple occasionally gets something wrong (e.g. the hockey puck mouse), but gets it very right a lot more often. And since this is a "Fortune" column, a lot of that is corporate culture that clearly is attributable to Steve Jobs…
Dear Sirs.
You failed to mention the "HARD DRIVE FAILURES".
Do you use one enough to have ever experienced such a thing?
It is well worth the money to have a better way.
Nice idea for the solid state hard drive. But they will break as well in time. I find my ideas on hw to repair laptops at http://www.laptoprepair.co.uk/how_to_repair_laptops.htm
or try the laptoprepairguy web site