Macworld preview: thin Mac, no 3G iPhone, maybe movie rentals, says analyst
What does Apple (AAPL) have in store for Macworld? Four weeks before Steve Jobs' Jan. 15 keynote, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has offered his best guess. The report to clients he issued today hews pretty closely to conventional wisdom, but provides a handful of new details.
- Macintosh: Munster expects that in addition to updates across the Mac line Jobs will introduce that long-awaited thin Mac with an 11" to 13" screen, 64 GB of NAND-based solid state memory and (maybe) a iPhone-like multitouch touchpad. Price: somewhere between the $1,099 MacBook and the $1,999 MacBook Pro.
- iPhone: Apple could up the storage to 16 GB while maintaining the $399 price point, but it's too early for the 3G iPhone 2, says Munster. He now expects that phone in May or June 2008 (His earlier predictions had pegged it for sometime between Sept. and Nov.)
- iTunes: "We also expect Apple to announce new content partnerships with one or more movie studios, which may involve the launch of iTunes movie rentals," Munster writes. "We believe there is a 50% chance the download service is announced at Macworld, and a 90% chance by mid 2008."
Meanwhile, UBS analyst Ben Reitzes has issued a bullish report based on a survey of more than 30 stores in which his research team found Mac demand "outpacing prior expectations."
"Even with prospects for a slowing economy," he writes, "we believe Mac demand can keep going strong with new products that we have detected in the supply chain. Given higher margins for the 'Mac ecosystem,' including software – we are raising estimates."
For more on the UBS report, see AppleInsider here.
To those complaining about the "copy and paste" nature of the PED's article:
In all likelihood, the original Piper Jaffray report was made available only to paying clients and never published elsewhere. Consequently, the overwhelming majority of articles about the report simply regurgitate the information contained in it. (Check for yourself: Google "Piper Jaffray Macworld", w/no quotes.) PED's article is no better or worse than 90% of the others on this topic.
BTW, subscriptions to market research reports such as Piper Jaffray's can be very expensive. Personally, I'm grateful that PED and the others so readily share the information for free.
My point is, and your definition proves it, that "previews" are based on facts, knowledge, real information. Munster's comments are simply guesses.
Leaving aside the fact that this "preview" was from just one guy (where are your "previews", Philip? Isn't there a dozen other people you could have spoken to about their "previews"?), if you had titled this blurb "Macworld Predictions" or "Guesses" or "stuff I pulled out of my posterior", it would have been more accurate and honest.
Which, as a journalist and a web site that self proclaims to be "Mac News from outside the reality distortion field", is what you should be constantly striving for.
–
Shawn King
[promotional material deleted]
How is this a "Macworld preview"? It's simply the guesses of *one* guy. I think the headline writer needs to look up the definition of "preview".
ex ped:
preview |ˈprēˌvyoō|
noun
an inspection or viewing of something before it is bought or becomes generally known and available : you can get a sneak preview of the pictures on sale.
• a showing of a movie, play, exhibition, etc., before its official opening.
• a short extract shown in a movie theater as publicity for a forthcoming film.
• a commentary on or appraisal of a forthcoming film, play, book, etc., based on an advance viewing.
• Computing a facility for inspecting the appearance of a document prepared in a word-processing or other program before it is printed.
verb [ trans. ]
display (a product, movie, play, etc.) before it officially goes on sale or opens to the public : the company will preview an enhanced version of its database.
• see or inspect (something) before it is used or becomes generally available : the teacher should preview teaching aids to ensure that they are at the right level.
• comment on or appraise (a forthcoming event) in advance : next week we'll be previewing the new season.
Your point?
Sell-side analysts are raising AAPL estimates as the economy slows and the consumer is pressured? Makes perfect sense. The first thing to go in a recession is consumer spending, especially on frivolous items like iPods and Macs. Get out now fanboys.
thanks for the article here and forget the smart a**es who think they know it all and have read your info elsewhere. Most people have not and do appreciate your info I'm sure of it 
I don't get it: does this column ever have its own analysis, or is it just a scrapbook for the rest of the web? I already have an RSS reader that gives me this stuff. I am just amazed that there is seen to be a need to have someone just copy and paste other people's work every day. This is definitely my last visit to this site!
Do my eyes deceive me? An Elmer story on Apple that doesn't have negative overtones? Is Elmer turning into a Mac addict?
the most true statement in this whole article was the admition that its all just a 'guess'.
useless article.
I would bet Apple is not going to release a 3G iPhone until they can make sure that it is not bulky and will have a decent battery life. That's why they didn't make the iPhone use 3G in the first place.
They will hold off until they can come out with something great rather than produce an inferior phone. That's a good thing.